More like they said five, then ten after five years ahf passed.
>Battery technology isn’t on any kind of exponential curve.
Thats simply false, and a weird thing to fabricate. The very idea discredits the rest of a person's assessment of tech.
https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323
> I get that no one likes to admit they were wrong,
This is some extremely strong projection. J'accuse
The article doesn’t discuss any exponential decrease for a reason. And most of the “dramatic drop” looks like it happened in the first 10 years
Time is running out.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/chart-behind-the-three-decade-coll...
THIRTY FOLD ISNT EXPONENTIAL.
Please reevaluate the plan. It likely contains a lot of optimism and a few required miracles
A * exp(b * t) = A / 30 => b = - log( 30 ) / t
As far as I can see a thirty fold decrease does fit into any exponential curve if you have the right rate constants or times, so I don't really get what you mean with that.
You say that "nobody likes to be proven wrong" but I in fact do like to be proven wrong. The "nobody" appears to only apply to yourself.