How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?
snyder.substack.com
snyder.substack.com
BTW, videos from a Yale course on Ukraine that Snyder is teaching now are being posted on Youtube [2].
Update: "It definitely seems that there is a power struggle going hot within the Russian govt/elite right now" [3]
[1] https://twitter.com/kamilkazani
[2] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz...
[3] https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/157778069162603724...
There's no metaculus tournament for a nuclear strike.
"In February, after the invasion of Ukraine, greater public attention was paid to the possibility of nuclear escalation. Given the gravity of the topic, we temporarily set this tournament private to review and reinforce our security infrastructure."
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecastin...
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of...
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident...
On the other hand, I like this political analysis. It occurs to me that Russia must now be experiencing a manpower shortage. They have sent something like 150,000? troops to Ukraine and a lot of them got killed or wounded. They are rounding up 300,000 more, taking them away from jobs and families. Estimates are that 500,000 men have fled the country (to avoid the draft, and the IT workers and others got out early). That has got to make a huge dent in workers in Russia. They are not going to be able to build things, to keep their economy fully functioning, when the most fit people they have are being pulled away into war. And more are being pulled into manufacturing weapons to support the war. It is a huge squandering of people power and resources, and it has got to be having devastating effects already. The pandemic has and is creating a shortage of workers in the US and must have done the same in Russia; imagine if the US also had a war going where we sent three quarters of a million troops to train and fight while also converting some industries to war production! There would be shortages of workers, services, and products. Inflation would increase. There have to be repercussions in Russia currently because of this, which would have an effect on the political calculations.
"It's up to you not to heed the call-up"
"Maybe I wanna see the wheatfields Over Kiev and down to the sea
All the young people down the ages They gladly marched off to die"
The Clash - The Call Up
No he hasn't, he's used all his best already. Wagner is still active in Ukraine. Not using your best forces makes zero strategic sense.
Why wouldn't they use their best and just prolong the war by loosing slowly instead of going for a quick victory? The quicker you can win a war, there better it is for you.
The "Russia hasn't sent its best yet and is saving them for later" is just a pro-Kremlin meme to try to justify the sorry state and lack of performance of the Russian military.
He is leaving plenty of places less protected (probably woth the exception of Moscow).
Also, not all fighting skills are transferable. Some were not sent and probably wont be sent to Ukraine (except as cannon fodder) because there is nothing usefull they can do.
If Russia still had unused human resources they would not be drafting at an enormous internal stability cost.
Russia formally annexed ~15% of Ukraine today. How is that winning?
I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist.
It didn't work for the Germans in WW2, and I have no expectation it will work for Ukraine in 2022. Germany did so in the hopes that Russia would just give up. They didn't, Germany rapidly lost the war afterwards. I expect the same to happen to Ukraine.
Ukraine needs NATO to fight if they want to defeat Russia.
You can buy such annexation in every shop with annexations. It doesn’t matter what the Russian president says he wants. I’m sorry that this sounds like a meme but … nobody cares.
I don’t know which WWII you remember. Germany invaded USSR with the idea of ending up in Moscow. They failed because they run out of time before winter hit them hard. Their supply lines were stretched so far that they could not supply their army.
This tactic is now used against Russia. This is a different conflict altogether.
Frankly, it’s the Russian behaviour that looks like Germany’s WWII invasion of USSR.
Back then it was also USA who defeated Hitler with Russian hands: https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-....
Let me offer this:
> … Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt.
> "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
> Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion.
> "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
Source: https://www.rferl.org/amp/did-us-lend-lease-aid-tip-the-bala....
Sounds very familiar, no?
Another way to look at it is that Russia's original attempt was for 100% and Ukraine already got 85% back.
I hereby declare that your kitchen is mine. Formally.
Guess you're in trouble now, right?
I mean, sure, I don't control his login, but boy did I annex it.
That is, it means absolutely nothing that Putin claims that he annexed chunks of Ukraine. He doesn't have control of a fair amount of what he "annexed", and he has control of less and less as the days go by.
Back to the original point. "Ukraine is winning on the battlefield" is completely unrelated to "Russia formally annexed something". Battlefield actions absolutely do not care what Putin and the Russian legislature said. And the battlefield actions are going to decide the day, not Putin flapping his gums.
There's a rude saying: "Try it on the dog." That is, your (Putin's) eloquence and rhetoric are completely failing to impress the humans, but maybe the dog will be impressed.
Citing Russian moves made out of desperation after being steamrolled on multiple fronts as actually meaning they are about to win is some good Soviet radio.
And “formally”? Huh? What? I formally ratify that I am the king of France. Unfortunately no one else seems to agreee. Name one country other than Russia or a pariah state like North Korea that “formally” acknowledges their new territory.
Russia is also party to the Budapest Memorandum. They said they wouldn't do the very thing they are doing. It's clear Russia can't be trusted to make a peace agreement it'll actually keep. And as it has threatened global blackmail with nuclear weapons in order to remain unaccountable to the treaties (contracts) it's a party to, the world shouldn't trust it at all either. It's a threat to world peace.
Russia has lost more territory in three weeks then they have gained in something like 3-4 months.
Russias position is so poor they aren’t even declaring borders for the annexed regions cause Ukraine keeps capturing more every day.
> I follow the conflict almost daily, and Ukraine appears to be in its "late WW2 Germany" phase where it throws everything it has at Russia all at once and then after…has nothing left to resist.
I find this hard to believe considering that Russia announced mobilisation and has been throwing older and older soviet era equipment at Ukraine. They have also been the ones losing the most territory lately.
Id say if anyones army is near collapse it’s Russias not Ukraines.
That was a particularly unconvincing propaganda move.
It is meant to provide 2 things:
- Legally allow Russia according to it's own laws to send conscripts to the claimed territories. This is necessary due to the extreme man power shortage.
- Legally allow Russia to officially threaten with nuclear force. Officially doing so otherwise is agains official Russian military doctrine. All nuclear saber-rattling before was unofficial.
Formally annexing was a legal necessity for Russia because otherwise Russia legally no longer had any way to escalate a "special military operation" they are loosing according to their own declared objecives.
Even a supreme dictator is still bound by the laws of their own dictatorship even if they can change those laws at will. Respecting the process is part of retaining support and legitimacy.