From the link:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...
The trend since 1960 appears instead linear. Also, population growth is slowing. But it's fun to extrapolate "exponential" trends and look at the big numbers.
There's plenty of land for solar, and then there are the oceans, and it's here now. In the medium term we should look at modular fission, and deep geothermal, potentially re-deploying fossil extraction technology.
I'm all for fusion as scientific research, but let's drop the pretense that using it to generate power is remotely realistic for many decades, if ever.
Current primary energy is 18TW. Total insolation is 170PW. GHG forcing is about 200TW. We can provide enough solar with smaller than a 1000km square. More than that will kill us no matter the technology used (but solar is better than most as the total heat it produces is a bit more than the work done rather than 3x).
Growth must end or physics will end it for us. Climate change is the warning shot across the bow, not the full volley.
"Current primary energy is 18TW" - That's outdated and only consists of the energy converted from electricity. It doesn't include non-electric heating, driving, maritime transportation, aviation and freight. Taking those int account our total consumption is around 100TW.
That's what primary energy means (as well as the heat wasted from allof the above). My best guess as to how you got 100 is you're mixing up 160,000TWh with TW
> That assumes 100% efficiency, it's from the upper atmosphere, and making full use of it would mean there would be no light left for plants or the ocean. After accounting for solar panel efficiency, battery efficiency, and the amount of surface where it's possible to put panels without displacing nature and agriculture it'll be somewhere in the low hundreds of TWs.
I wasn't implying all of that was available, merely that around 0.1% of that in thermal forcing is enough to be a problem on the same scale as GHG emissions. Wind is the technology which produces the least new heat (none, although if you exceed around 1W/m^2 for too large an area you change the climate in other ways), followed by solar on existing asphalt, grass, or water (up to ~1W of new heat per watt).
Any thermal fuel that didn't recently come from sunlight is in the 1.4 to 3 range (excluding extraction and processing).
This caps primary energy around 400TW for renewables or 200TW for nuclear (with only around 70W as work if you are using a steam engine).
Nuclear provides less end-state access to abundant energy on earth than renewables at higher cost. There is no reason to pursue it.
There is exactly zero need to devote any land surface at all exclusively to the solar panels that will provide for all our needs. Solar coexists nicely with numerous other uses. Similarly, for wind turbines.
Storage may consume some area, but nowhere near what existing fossil fuel extraction activities do.
There will be no fusion.
Scream it into the ether with veins popping out of your head all you want, it doesn't make you correct.
Additionally, there's literally no reason to not pursue both avenues.
Even presuming usable structural materials can be discovered (not worked on in 3 decades) and tritium at PPB concentration can be extracted from thousands of tons of blanket material every day (never worked on at all), a working plant would cost more than an order of magnitude more on every axis than fission.
But fission is already not competitive. Fission falls farther behind better methods each day.
So, no one will build a fusion power plant, and there will be no fusion power. "Pursuing avenues" with no possibility of desirable results is wasted effort and wasted money. We have valid reasons to avoid waste.
It's the thousands of scam artists that will divert resources from actual solutions as soon as their lies are plausible to rubes that are not.
If we're busy paying for 100s of victoria county stations that will never open, the coal plants will remain on.
The previous poster is ranting against a tiny threat, if even that, to wind and solar while the fossil fuel lobby reigns supreme. Just a completely disproportionate response.
Investors are being defrauded. Money that could be going for important, useful research is being diverted to pockets of fraudsters promising sky castles.
No Fraud does damage , it's not money wasted to disprove a fusion is viable , its resources and time just wasted. Just because "oh that money will never be used for other stuff anyways" doesn't mean one shouldnt voice for better utilisation of it.
Theranos was Fraud , doesn't mean we've proved minitiarized blood tests are impossible
The current tirade of nuclear shilling serves the fossil fuel industry. As does directing funding (often including public money) to all the 'fusion' startups like helion with massive, obvious, unpatchable deal breakers in their plans. A billion going to general fusion could fund tens or hundreds of hysatas or natrons, a non-zero proportion of whom are making real progress towards actual solutions.
Vogtle, Hinkley, VC Summer... the list goes on and on. The people wind up paying for decades even if no power is ever produced. There has never been a commercially viable fission reactor even with the free unlimited insurance.
The fission industry has been burning enough public money every few years for decades to have kick started the renewable economy. A large portion of the massive cost reductions we saw in the last ten years have been technologically available for a very long time -- the only thing needed was investment in the engineering. There are still problems and technologies best served by primary research that will help and have a far better chance of paying off than more money down the fission toilet or towards snake oil fusion scams.
The same tired lines get rolled out every time and they're always wrong. Every discussion about the actual solution gets derailed by some combination of fission shilling, fud about variability or 'don't invest in renewables, fusion will save us'.
Given how disadvantageous a position nuclear has been at for all of this time, it's probably trivial for pro-nuclear adherents to turn around and call the anti-nuke lobby shills for the fossil fuel industry. And so round and round the circular firing squad goes.
Stop doing that.
You stop doing that.
Every last dollar going into fraudulent fusion startups, and via federal grants from taxes into constructing ITER, is in fact diverted from potentially productive research. Fraud is a pure negative.
1) World helium-3 reserves mean they can only be an irrelevant amount of total energy. Otherwise it's just D-D or D-p fusion with extra steps (and all the neutron problems involved).
2) The magnetic energy recovery can at best reach parity with the thermal, which makes it yet another solar freakin' roadways if not a theranos. They play sleight of hand with this in all their marketing materials which indicates they know it's a show stopper but do not want anyone paying attention to it.
The slick marketing, the sexy story, the massive hole in their story, and the startup posturing put them with every other scam startup that promises the world and then folds after an IPO with VCs disappearing with a the later investors' money.
The magnetic energy recovery scheme would allow the energy of compression to be recovered at high efficiency. If this worked, they could have a practical, energy producing system even with Q < 1. I believe they are aiming for Q = 0.2.
The idea that it "can at best reach parity with thermal" seems without any justification. Perhaps we could debug the source of your misunderstanding?
Props for honesty I guess.
Maybe the current trajectory of fusion is unlikely to bear fruit, but we'll learn from it. We may learn something that makes it far easier to implement. A discovery here or there and you change trajectory to something that IS worthwhile.
If you never try, you never get there, you can't see that?
Look up "opportunity cost", "sunk cost fallacy", and "good money after bad".
Victorians believed in fairies, very strongly. Their heirs believe as strongly in fusion energy.
Of course it is possible to forego on using arable land for solar parks, only using rooftops and similar constructions for this purpose. Roofs - especially large flat ones like used in industry - are natural locations for PV panels and it is hard to see why one would not install them on new constructions, either on top of traditional roof cladding or in place of it. The same goes for large south-facing walls.
Wind turbines can be placed on farm land without unduly reducing land availability to farming, here the problem comes from nearby population complaining about noise pollution (infrasound, [1]) coming from those turbines as well as 'horizon pollution' [2].
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97107-8
[2] https://worldcrunch.com/culture-society/skyscrapers-turbines...
Rooftops will not be much that.
Deserts are a particularly dumb place for solar farms, but ignorant investors love the idea, so lots of money is wasted on them.
All power to those projects, but they are really just experimental at this point. Not inevitable.