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It should be based on households rather than population. There were 24,782,800 households in England and Wales on the last Census Day in 2021. Meaning by your other figures/logic, you have a 62% chance of being burgled at some point if you live in England or Wales. I.e, you're more likely to get burgled than not.

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Good point, and does definitely push the numbers towards the risk being somewhat higher than I intuitively think of. I still won’t be fitting cameras all over my property though!

It is also making the assumption that adding cameras to your house makes you unburglable, which is far from true. Not that it doesn't reduce the likelihood.

All the camera allows you to do is point at some vaguely humanoid figures in your house to the police (who will likely not be able to do anything about it) and to your insurance (who likely would have paid out anyway)

What I'd like to know is if turning your house into a fortress makes you _more_ of a target to a specific subset of professional high-end thieves, as they know you have valuable stuff that you would like to protect.

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