That fact is 100% right.
As a designer Im aware that design won't save the world.
Foursquare had a huge moat since ever, and thats all that they need.
Coat of paint and nice UI doesn't always win.
We've travelled a lot, and this happens coast to coast in big cities and small.
I've always really dug Gowalla (when I check in, typically only around an event like SXSW, it's what I've used), but when real people are talking about you in real life (an initially slow, but snowballing and very effective advertising model), all over the country--you end up winning.