Tesla Vehicle Production and Deliveries for 3Q 2022
ir.tesla.com
ir.tesla.com
I have a Chevy Volt right now, but I sometimes wonder what I'd buy if it were to be totaled in an accident since GM made the (poor, IMHO) decision to discontinue the Volt.
* Tesla fit and finish has improved but IMHO isn't yet quite on par with, say, MB and BMW -- e.g., panels and seals don't seem to be as perfectly aligned, and some gaps seem as if they're just a little wider than in those other two brands. However, I much prefer Tesla's interior -- modern, simple, uncluttered. Every other vehicle interior now feels cluttered and last-century to me.
* Tesla reliability has been amazing for me. No regular check-ups or oil changes required! And once the novelty wears off, the vehicles just keep working, and they don't seem to age as much. Our other Tesla is two years old now and its interior still feels brand new. It seems Tesla has chosen materials for the interior that feel "artificial" and "light" but somehow last and last and last without showing any wear and tear.
My Model Y is two years old, no problems.
Combined mileage between the two vehicles is just shy of 150K.
The fit and finish of my older Model 3 has always just felt a bit better than the Y. I had to fix a weird creaking emanating from the rear hatch of the Y - a loose panel.
My Model 3 is the vehicle I have owned for the longest time and used continually. I haven't even had a desire to look for a new vehicle, which is way outside of my usual car purchasing behavior. (I have owned - and spent way, way too many hours myself on maintenance and repairing ICE vehicles.)
The priority should be no travel > walking > biking > transit > car
The quality of materials is debatable since, for example, Tesla exclusively uses synthetic material and no leather. But as you point out, the durability of these materials seems very good. Even with routine leather care, my previous vehicle with a leather interior showed more significant signs of wear at the same point in its life.
- I've gone through three 12v batteries in four years.
- I've lost 40% of main battery pack capacity in four years (the first chunk of lost range was within a month of purchase).
- The rear camera randomly loses signal while trying to back up.
- Wifi Radios are incompatible with Ubiquiti Nano HD radios.
- Software updates are a fun game of "ok, what won't work after this one?" or "Which critical UI functions did they move to a completely different place this time?"
- Autopilot has tried to kill me several times: usually with random hard braking for no reason, but once with a completely incorrect and sudden lane divergence.
- Most recently: the climate control system stopped working entirely a month ago. If I try to turn it on, the car has an electrical fault and I can't drive. So, I get to sweat profusely while waiting for a timeframe I can afford to be without the vehicle for the week+ it will be at the service center.I see this complaint a lot, but I've never understood how serious it is. Is it purely an aesthetic thing or does it actually effect the the longevity or road worthiness of the car in any way?
I have not observed any panel misalignment on my Model 3.
I am in a similar situation as you. I want to get rid of my model 3 but I am not sure what to replace it with…
No EV exists with the same performance in that price range.
I do not like my model 3. Tesla service is not trustworthy in my experience. My car was delivered with minor fit and finish issues.
I despise the lack of apple car play or android auto.
You say the car has minor fit and finish issues, but that's clearly not what would motivate you to get rid of it. CarPlay / AA is fixable I imagine.
Is there anything else that's gone wrong with your experience?
I say this as someone who has eyeballed the Model 3 but never committed, and I'd be interested to hear about any negatives (as the internet hype mafia makes it difficult to see these stories).
I don’t think CarPlay is coming. It is a product decision right? They want you using Tesla premium connectivity. CarPlay would let you bypass that.
Yes you are right the fit and finish on its own is not enough. However there shouldn’t be any fit and finish issues in my opinion. I paid the asking price so why am I getting a discounted fit and finish.
These are just a list of things that come to mind. It’s multiple straws that broke the camels back for me. Some of them are with the car itself and the others are with Tesla employees. All accumulating to me not trusting Tesla.
* 0-60 time increased after I placed my order and before the car was delivered
* sales team lied to me
* service advisors lied to me
* service management lied to me
* car doesn’t come with floor mats
* too many false positive “safety” alarms. Road side departure warning goes off a lot for me when I’m dead center in the lane. It’s really stressful for me and any passengers
* super chargers rarely charge at max speed
* supercharger musical chairs when the station is full
* phantom rattling noises from the cabin
* ui tweaks and “experiments” are annoying. Stop changing my interface
* playback of sentry mode videos is buggy
* non-standard charge port
* windshield wiper fluid sprays everywhere but the windshield
I could keep going. I’m just over the hype and don’t really want to deal with the company any more.
There are a lot of good things about it. I enjoy how the car drives and handles. The iOS app is great.
This is a stupendously, jaw-droppingly cynical take.
There is no way premium connectivity is making them any significant amount of money. It is so cheap! $100 / year last I checked. So Tesla is not basing any product decisions on that little pittance of money (remember, most of that money goes to the cellular companies that provide the networks, so the profit if any must be truly tiny).
And premium connectivity brings so much more than just music… video, web, traffic data, remote honk, remote light flash, remote viewing of live camera feed from the car's cameras on all sides, remote climate precooling / prewarming, remote control of other car functions, notifications about state changes, remote monitoring of charging status, notifications when charge is done, notifications of alarms… I mean the list is huge. You get all this with premium connectivity and none of it without.
You say the iOS app is great; connectivity with the car is one of the reasons it is great… I say all this just to make the point that just adding CarPlay would not make any meaningful number of people drop premium connectivity. What CarPlay offers is just a tiny little bit of all this.
So I'd look elsewhere for reasons why Tesla won't have CarPlay (and I agree they won't). Probably because they don't want to give up control of their UI to a massively controlling entity that wants to dictate so many aspects of what happens, and who also wants a cut of everything, including most likely things that are simply free with Tesla today.
There's quite a laundry list of other similarly oddly overwrought complaints that could be responded to above, but the only other one that really sticks for me is that sentry mode playback is indeed very flaky… but you know, that will be fixed in a software update.
Long story short, expecting CarPlay when Elon and Apple both want total control is a non-starter. CarPlay has too much baggage in the form of Apple control.
10 years in, all those early LEAFs have been scrapped or needed battery swaps due to like 75%!!! range loss in some cases! Meanwhile, Tesla, while notorious for fit/finish issues, has similar vintage cars that are still on their first battery with less than 20% loss of range.
Yes, the LEAF is "reliable." It reliably goes when you step on the accelerator, and everything else is reliable as well, except for the drivetrain, which reliably loses range to the point where the car is totaled because Nissan raised battery prices just as a tidal wave of vehicles needed them.
There's a reason Tesla is outselling every other EV in North America. Part of it is that they are able to source materials, but they are the only ones with a "good enough" mix of reliability and build quality on everything but the drivetrain, a bulletproof drivetrain, and a reliable and widespread charging network. Teslas aren't perfect, and there's room for a fast follower company to beat them, especially on fit, finish, convenience, and luxurious cabins, but that would require an Apple like attention to both detail and supply chains.
Though a common misconception that comes from the Nissan Leaf being the first mass produced EV and the first to discover issues with battery degradation in hot or cold climates, this was an issue in 1st generation that is long gone, yet your out of date narrative has stuck in many minds.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/21/surprise-nissan-leaf-ba...
Your 75% number is completely absurd and fabricated.
Teslas are a different price range than a Leaf and frankly not worth it my opinion.
Disclaimer: I don’t like Toyota because of their disdain and lies about EVs.
There are still some fit and finish issues in body panels though, the standard is not up to any other manufacturer there.
Looking at the trailing 12 months for every Q3 in Tesla's history, the story so far nicely resembles an exponential growth curve.
The Cybertruck is going to have an incredible margin as well due to it's simplistic design.
Their current set of factories can scale up to around 3-4M, so watch for more factory announcements.
A lot of opinions about this. 3-4M is pretty lowball, as it would mean all 3 new factories are only going to be at about 1M each. Some say ultimate production numbers could be 2M for Austin, 2M for Shanghai, 1M for Berlin and 600k for Fremont, IIRC.
No matter what, I'd expect Tesla to announce their next factor(y|ies) pretty soon.
I'm sure the model S sells better than the Model X but I'm curious which of Model 3 and Model Y sells better...
In Shanghai factory they make 2 Model Y for each Model 3.
In Fremont they do both Model 3 and Model Y, don't know the breakdown. Possibly more Model 3 because that was the first car they made there and they still have more production lines for Model 3.
Austin and Berlin are only Model Y. They don't contribute much today (maybe 3k/week) but they'll ramp to 500k cars each within 2 years, hence the production (and sales) of Model Y will grow significantly while production of Model 3 not so much.
There is gone be an absolutely huge overflow of vehicles compared to charging infrastructure. Companies like Electrify America can already not handle the maintenance and upkeep of their stations and the ratio of vehicles to charges is about to increase massively as their initial deployed machines fail at ever increasing rates.
I expect that many drivers will learn to simply avoid charging on certain days and places and stay close to home.
There actually are a lot more, esp in the 240v world in the US: https://www.bsaelectronics.com/pages/nema-plug-and-outlet-ch...
> There are not three different AC plug standards.
There were four different AC sockets just in my childhood home — BS 1363, BS 4573, and two different sizes of BS 546.
Now I live in Berlin, I don’t use a single one of these.
that contrasts with vendors free to settle on what works for them all, perhaps innovating along the way, rather than being told what works for them uniformly.
There is no need for multiple styles of charging plug design (the physical interface). The innovation would be in the internals that negotiated the rate of charge, like USB devices do with fast/regular charging. I can still charge my 10+ year old devices with modern chargers that are capable of outputting 2-3x more current than my old device can handle, because it automatically negotiates a lower rate, using the same type of plug.
If they get federal funds to enable CCS, fine, otherwise keep the advantage to drive sales and let legacy automakers flail in the wind. There is no political appetite to mandate CCS in the US. That’s the cost of hesitating and a half assed approach to an EV go to market strategy (Tesla has sunk almost $1B into its global fast DC charging network, VW only did through Electrify America because it was a Diselgate settlement requirement).
There's no advantage to a proprietary charge port. Closed charging networks are dumb infrastructure. Tesla is slowly realizing that switching to CCS will lead to higher utilization and reduced costs:
https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/28/22596337/tesla-supercharg...
> Tesla has sunk almost $1B into its global fast DC charging network
Then Tesla can spend some more to change the plugs over to CCS, just like they did in Europe.
Does it really matter? Tesla offers both standards on their superchargers in Europe, and I'm sure (in their newer car designs) the digital and electronic components are ready to support both standards. I agree it's annoying to have two different plugs, but at this point isn't it basically a cheap retrofit? (At least for new-model Teslas and superchargers... I do worry that older Teslas might get left behind.)
The much gnarlier situation is for us legacy Tesla owners. We'll still have access to the supercharger network, but we'll be sharing it with non-Tesla vehicles. Meanwhile we won't be able to use any of the non-Tesla chargers that get built. It sucks to own a Betamax when everyone else is about to settle on VHS.
Tesla Superchargers aren't the only DC Fast chargers in NA, for going on ten years. But they're more common, it seems.
Edit: https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-d...
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/157660558960586343...
PHEVs don’t count for these purposes imho, fast DC charging is wasted on their charge curve. They can make due at legacy J1772 connectors.
The Nissan Leaf had by far the greatest market share among non-Teslas in North America prior to the Model 3 launch. Moreover, most of the Leaf’s competition, either “compliance” EVs or PHEVs, were sold without any DCFC connector. After the Model 3 launch, Tesla has dominated market share in the US.
Impressive. I guess there is no crisis
That's also happening for a lot of other electric cars, and popular newer gas cars like Jeep Gladiators and Broncos.
But why did Tesla head their ship data with a picture of a truck they don't make?
It's quite obvious why Tesla put that image at the top: the building and deployment of the truck is aspirational for the company. There is nothing wrong with that. All other automakers, without exception, do the same thing in regards to aspirational future products, and they do not get mocked for it nearly as much as Tesla does.
A truck they don't yet make is not the same notion as a truck they will never make.
Shame we don't have the model sales numbers from Tesla to be more specific here.
Ironically, Tesla receives a significant amount of criticism/hate for the small size of their product line up (four models, where each pair of two is very similar: X & S, and Y & 3). Many analysts and critics fail to appreciate how much market opportunity exists for a single very well-executed vehicle per major category, such as "small SUV."
That's 3 cars per minute.