You get the impression the world is going under.
Sure this is a startup-forum so it effects funding etc but still.
We are the guys and girls that solve this, not the people that whine about it, right?
calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
bigpicture.typepad.com
Should keep you filled.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor
In particular (but have a drink and take a deep breath) http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/253933/revisiting_my_...
And for the best commentary and aggregation: http://ftalphaville.ft.com
End Fractional Reserve Banking
Allow banks only to lend their deposits. This also eliminates the need for central banks - let people use 100% deposit banks when they want deposit security. This will prevent large debt bubbles (speculative investment bubbles) and the resulting massive misallocation of resources. End Inflationary Monetary Policies
Never print more money. Period. Use smaller denominations as slow deflation occurs due to an increasing population. This will keep prices in line with value and allow people to save without making high risk investments.
That doesn't work in a bank run. Central banks or some similar mechanism is needed to fix the asymmetry of time for deposits (e.g. savings) and loans (e.g. mortgages.)
Due to our behavior set on risk aversion most of us wouldn't take bonds matching the times of a mortgage. No matter how good the deal is. That's what the bankers exploit.
What we commonly call banks aren't - they're investment houses - and very highly leveraged ones at that. And what we commonly call deposits aren't - they're investments and no investment is a sure thing. Any system that pretends that there is a sure thing will fail sooner or later and the bigger the system the more catastrophic the failure.
(T)hey're investments and no investment is a sure thing.
It's not like an insurance company that keeps enough real cash reserves to cover potential costs. For example, the FDIC only has enough in reserve to cover ~1% of the deposits in US banks.
You get the impression the site is going under.
Sure this is a forum so we're interested in what's on the front page etc but still.
We are the guys and girls that vote on which articles are good, not the people that whine about it, right?
We are the guys and girls that solve this...
That depends, I guess, on if we're the kind of people who keep others in houses, lend to banks, evaluate debtor's credit rating, produce the things people need in order to live, or have the intellect and authority to make the right policy decisions in this frankly harrowing time.
If a meltdown really happens, starting up will be a whole different ball game. Changing currency valuations will strongly influence things like who gets to be an industrial economy vs. who gets to be a service economy, who gets to have functioning infrastructure and who doesn't, and who can afford food and energy.
Though we are all a little disaster-fatigued, the global financial freeze-up that could wreak havoc on our abilities to make a living surely warrants attention on the front page.
It affects just about everything. I remember during the last big downturn, there was a piece on the BBC about a couple who had lost everything they had, in part because she had been a Herbalife [v. big in the 80s] sales person, and (as she put it) "when people are feeling the pinch the first thing they can do without is a herbal dietary supplement." Her business died almost overnight.
Now, maybe your startup idea is about something which gives real value and reduces costs of some vital business process. But if it's not, this will bite you very hard indeed. And even if it is, you might still find your potential customers are very cost-averse.
Personally, I see this downturn as a big opportunity, but it will be accompanied by plenty of pain first.
Economic systems do end. Currencies do die or lose their leadership position. Has America's time come? Maybe. I think its close enough to it that its wise to think about basic things like where and how to live safe and comfortable. If we are in for 10 years of depression, it is wise to not live in large urban areas that will see crime rate soar.
We're not just going to spend and leverage our way out of this one (as we have with previous recessions) because the trust and confidence in credit is extremely shaky. The last 30 years, since about 1980, have been fueled by a ridiculous amount of credit and the bills are coming due.
It's now an issue of people and their confidence. The whole system of credit works because of trust, and with each bank failure and company fallout confidence is going to drop. This isn't just consumer confidence too, but also confidence on the part of foreign countries to believe that we'll make good on our insane level of debt.
We haven't had a negative quarter or high unemployment yet because 2008 just marked the significant beginning of this erosion of confidence and the revaluing of the massive bullshitting of on-paper "value" created by abnormal demand (fueled by credit). This "confidence crunch" is far from over.
But back to calling names...
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics)
"There is no official definition for a depression." "a depression is characterized by 'unusual' increases"
[ ] "unusual" increases in unemployment [ X ] restriction of credit [ X ] shrinking output and investment [ X ] price deflation or hyperinflation [ X ] numerous bankruptcies [ X ] reduced amounts of trade and commerce [ X ] volatile/erratic relative currency value fluctuations
Many of those are just starting but coming strong. For example all the announcements on mass layoffs (eBay, HP, and Virginia state.)
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#2008_recession_in_som...
According to Intrade there is even a 20% chance or so that we avoid recession entirely for the next couple quarters.
I'm not saying things are going well... just that there is a lot more room for things to get worse. :-/
I don't know about you but I don't have a trillion dollars. And I bet most readers here have debt due to funding their startups and not having a safe job.
This is a case of renegotiating the best you can and trying not to pass forward whatever pain you get. If you do so, you'll be as good as dead in startup-land when this recession is over.
I read an article on diamond synthesis posted here recently. Now as the president, I would order a silent meeting with the head of the companies leading the diamond sysnthesis industry - Gemisis and apollo. Their work is synthesizing the gemstone into identical physical makeup as natural diamonds. The benefits for superconductors and microprocessors are tremendous as well as the impact of the diamond as a commodity trade. Some think it could well replace steel.
That being said, I would murder the ceo's replace them with body doubles, close their companies and destroy any evidence of their technologies.
Then make the find of the century....the largest diamond mine in the world located right under alaska. build a mine, staff it, then back the dollar with diamonds.
The dollar would be worth substance again and the significance would be huge around the world...
Even so, it's good to know what you might be facing.
what we are, we're the people who will live with reduced wealth for decades to come. debt must be unwound and asset prices reverted to the mean. there is no shortcut. regimes that have taken shortcuts have ended violently. for example, monarchist france and weimar germany.
we are, ONCE AGAIN (like 2002), attempting to put off (inevitable) deflation with hyperinflation. or do you think pumping like $3 trillion globally into markets will have no impact on currencies? the dollar will not make it to 2025