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Comment by hodgesrm | Hacker News Reader

This was job #1 in US defense policy from the late 1940s to the early 1990s. There was a lull after the wall came down but it's back.

In my opinion the only way to avoid nuclear war is to get rid of nuclear weapons entirely. Humans being what they are, it may take a war to get that point across.

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The way I see it we live in a markov process where nuclear annihilation is an absorbing state. With mitigations we can increase the "halflife" of humanity so to speak, but only so much.

The only long term solution is for civilization to go multi-planetary.

If there any arrows with non zero probability into that state then it certainly is always increasing.

Nukes can easily be sent between planets. With sufficient tech you can even make nuclear shaped charges.

The distance give you more advance warning, making it more realistic to intercept them.

The only reason nuclear interception is even plausible is thanks to the atmosphere. Was it not for the atmosphere, you could wrap the warheads in inflatable mylar balloons, and send in tens of millions of identical but empty balloons. Unless you have the capability of intercepting 30 million+ objects, you would not be able to intercept an interplanetary nuclear attack, even one levied with current technology.

MAD is the only way. The current powers are just too weak to enforce it. Ukraine shutdown its nuclear arsenal because of russia and the us. The US should, if it had any balls or was worthy of trust, declare that any nuclear attack on ukraine will be seen as a war declaration to the US.

The situation in Ukraine only shows the world that non proliferation is a stupid gamble.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_...

The US should, if it had any balls or was worthy of trust, declare that any nuclear attack on ukraine will be seen as a war declaration to the US.

My understanding is that a nuclear attack against Ukraine puts the Budapest Memorandum in play. The effect will be similar, in that we'll be more or less compelled to join the war on Ukraine's side.

If we fail to do that, then good luck with any future nonproliferation efforts that involve promises from the "good guys."

Oddly enough China agreed to protect Ukraine in the event of a nuclear strike.

China aims at becoming/remaining the world #1 economic superpower; Europe's GDP being 10 times the Russian one suggested them to be more pragmatic.

It's already been violated afaik

How do you get rid of nuclear weapons entirely? Do you somehow erase the knowledge required to build nuclear weapons? How does this prevent knowledge/building from moving out of sight rather than actually disappearing? When I worked in a recycling facility in college I would collect old books off the conveyor describing nuclear engineering, how do you track me down to prevent that knowledge from proliferating?

The same way we don’t make general artificial intelligence. We all agree not do it. It’s just too dangerous. Dismantle all the nuclear warheads, destroy the materials, erase the research and focus on nuclear power instead.

Whether or not we’ll be smart enough as a species to avoid these research paths and behaviors… I’m not holding my breath.

If you require 100% compliance in an endeavor, count on it failing.

You can't destroy the knowledge required to make nukes. It's too widespread and they're too easy to make. There's some moderately difficult engineering involved in the material processing, but the basics are dead simple.

And someone is totally going to make an AGI.

That’s where avoiding behavior is important. Nuclear weapons don’t spontaneously appear.

Not a workable idea, but a good sci-fi plot: get the major powers to give up their nukes. create a single, tiny nation, a nuclear Vatican, populated by citizens from all former nuclear powers. give them a number of ICBMs. have them nuke whoever else develops the tech.

Something about the phrase "nuclear Vatican" makes me giggle more than it should.

Makes for a great (cover) band name

Do their hats scale in proportion to regular proximity to launch codes?

Nuclear Vatican should just be the US

US erased that possibility when it stopped honouring warranties given to states that gave up WMDs, and started screwing them one after another. Iraq, Libya, Iran... Quite impossible for North Korea to give up on their WMDs now they saw what happened to those following that route. Others took notice also.

The US government will find a way to ensure that its foreign policy goals are accomplished.

Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [1] have agreed to "pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control." The USA is a party to the treaty.

[1] https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text

I remember an old sci-fi anime where the wars weren't fought with nuclear weapons because their world had "neutron-jammers" that prevented neutrons from triggering chain reactions

Lol, nuke them first then.

A "nuclear Vatican" is not necessary. UN already exists. Control of stockpiles should be transferred to its control, to be diminished and repurposed from mass destruction means to planetary defense means.

> How do you get rid of nuclear weapons entirely?

Rods from god. Eliminates headquarters and control centers every bit as effectively as a nuke, but without the radiation.

> How do you get rid of nuclear weapons entirely?

One step at a time. Start by reducing numbers radically. There's no reason for countries like the US, Russia, and China to have such large arsenals.

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