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I think it's somewhat possible to time the markets given monetary policy.

Monetary policy and stimulus during COVID caused a currency devaluation. If nothing else changes, the value of assets should increase, relative to a currency.

The same thing happened with monetary policy in March 2022. Interest rates went up, stocks went down.

I'm curious what others think.

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It's not possible, because monetary policy tends to be a lagging indicator of recessions [1] whereas the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions [2]. Also, there's the problem that dropping the interest rate doesn't mean the Fed will continue to drop it to zero. Similarly increasing the interest rate doesn't mean the Fed will continue to increase it until we hit a recession. The predictive power provided by such a lagging indicator combined with an imperfect correlation means that monetary policy alone isn't enough to time the market.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM

It's easy to time the market when you know exactly what happened and have an explanation why it happened :P

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