The Russian economy will ‘die by winter’ because of the military mobilization

fortune.com

4 points·gvb··5 comments

This is very scary; if the economy is totally disrupted, the Russian "Federation" could splinter into a mess of countries/fiefdoms, many with nukes.

Russia currently spans eleven (11) time zones. With total economic chaos, there will be no way to hold that together as a single "Russian Federation." It was dicey back in 1991 when the USSR dissolved - this could be worse.

Don't worry they just illegally annexed 4 parts of Ukraine. They have something to celebrate until their impending doom.

And still we don't know what other measurements will be taken after the annexation.

All predictions like this have a serious error bar. For one, as things get cold, the US and/or Europe might decide for whatever reasons "screw it, let Russia win". For another, things may always work out differently than the predictions, with effects being much slower or less catastrophic as the people adapt. Third, propaganda exists on all sides.

It's funny, these posts keep saying that Russia is about to collapse. Maybe it will, with the full force of the West acting in concert against it, but...

It's not Russia that is expecting to have to tell people to move all the family in to one room of the house to conserve heating fuel, as one German economic minister recommended, or to live without mobile networks for "a few hours" each day as was being considered this morning, or to expect not to be able to travel, or to get enough to eat reliably.

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