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Comment by andreime | Hacker News Reader

You think it's possible apple builds a new fab (they have none) and immediately jumps to better than TSMC 5nm?

No. It's impossible to trade (even infinite amounts of) money for calendar time or supply access.

Any moves Apple made now would wind their way through ASML et al., through fab construction and qualification, and then finally adapting their chips to a new process.

They could pull the trigger on the Power to Intel because they'd spent a decade+ of contingency planning, OS/app support, and acquisitions.

This isn't like that.

Can we be sure Apple hasn't been quietly building a fab or at least fab expertise somewhere in the bowels of Cupertino? Do we have enough insight into ASML to be sure they haven't purchased even older fab equipment?

This is what the TSMC construction site in Arizona looks like.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2022/05/26/tsmc-pho...

They’re probably not hiding something like that in Cupertino.

It’s in basement level 2 under the mothership, directly under the Apple Car test track on basement level 1

Not even a reality distortion field can make something bigger on the inside. :D

fabs take years to build. The only real option Apple would have is some kind of joint venture with Intel and maybe try to bring in the US Department of Defense or US government in general to push the whole chip national security talking point and get more funding

Well, I think that's their leverage (if they have any). They kick the can, wait, take the hit, and then in the meantime make it clear that next time they'll have their own fab. In that scenario TSMC is looking at demanding a 6% hike vs jumpstarting competitors in other countries.

Maybe it's unrealistic but it wouldn't be the first time something like that happened in a market. The political conditions aren't unfavorable either.

> The only real option Apple would have...

TSMC has a market cap of $356B and maybe $30B in cash. Apple has a market cap of $3.25T and over $200B in cash. Surely you are overlooking a possible option here, which is Apple acquiring TSMC. I don't see it as likely, but it is an option.

Taiwan's government would never allow TSMC to be acquired, it's key to their national security

If Apple owned TSMC, wouldn't that make Taiwan more secure, since the US would have more of an interest?

Not really. Our interest in TSMC and other tech assets in Taiwan is already enormous. Any impact would really be on the margins.

I really doubt that would be allowed to go through due to the conflicting interests it would create regarding chips produced for all other competitors (AMD, Google, Qualcomm etc). It would be seen as similar to the NVIDIA buyout of ARM.

> bring in the US Department of Defense or US government in general

This is a guaranteed route to introducing even more delays, cost overruns, schedule overruns, onerous requirements, intrusive oversight, and about a trillion meetings and studies along the way.

If you want to go fast, stay far far away from the USG.

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