Russia prepares to formally annex 15% of Ukraine | Hacker News Reader

Russia prepares to formally annex 15% of Ukraine

reuters.com

21 pointsnop_slide32 comments

Russia is losing the war. Annexation is pretext for using nukes to stop Ukraines advance. Despite being a kleptocratic dictatorship Russia is strangely oriented around laws and procedures. This gives them an excuse to act in according with Russias military doctrine which states that nukes can be used when Russian territory is under attack.

This annexation is certainly an escalation, but I'm skeptical whether it's a pretext for nuclear strikes. Tactical nuclear weapons are mainly useful for knocking out military bases and troop concentrations. At this point the Ukrainian army is well dispersed and dug in, often in close combat with Russian forces where the risk of fratricide would be high. Russia could use strategic nuclear weapons against Ukrainian population centers in an attempt to break their will to fight, but Putin has to know that would foreclose any possible option for ever resuming normal trade relations with the EU and many other countries. He's getting desperate, but I don't think he's that stupid.

Whether they use nukes or not cannot be known. They are just telling themselves and the world that their hands are untied

I don't think it's likely that he will use nukes but it's part of the strategy to threaten to use nukes

I wonder if it’s a way for him to claim victory before ending the operation. Maybe it’s a way out.

Not really because there's no way that Ukraine is going to allow these areas to remain in Russian and hands. Especially given atrocities they've seen in places they've recaptured. Especially since they're clearly winning

But it really isn’t anymore of a justification then Russia has had for months to use nukes in Ukraine.

Since the start of the war, Ukraine has hit.

- Belgorod (Russian land) multiple times with both missiles and helicopters

- Crimea (Russian occupied “annexed” land) multiple times destroying aircraft at multiple airfields

- Rostov (Russian land) a oil refinery was set on fire by kamikaze drones

The only difference now is that Russia is decisively loosing the war.

In a banana republic, you can "formally" do whatever you want, without internal repercussions. Whether the rest of the world recognizes what you want to do outside of your borders is a big question.

In this particular case, they may as well say that they are annexing Germany.

Although the situation is thoroughly not funny, because the idea that a foreign power would organise referenda in jurisdictions they don't legally and not even defacto control is so ludicrous, a Dutch comic organised a referendum for the annexation of Russia by the Netherlands. Please vote! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVv3ofeBnME

I seem to remember we "oversaw" a number of referenda in Afghanistan and Iraq during our years of occupation. I don't think that makes it right, but it probably doesn't give us a leg to stand on.

Where there any? I don't recall.

If there were, I wager they not held with a weeks notice, without any involvement of local authorities while 80% of the population was on the run and the other 20% being terrorized in quite the way Ukrainians are in the occupied territories.

All the elections in Iraq that happened before 2011 while Iraq was occupied by the US [0]. And all of Afghan elections.

But of course referendums in the Ukraine are a joke given that big part of population fled the war.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Iraq

Not sure if it's the same thing here. The US didn't attempt to turn Afghanistan or Irak into a US state, have them fly the "Old Glory" and their kids recite the pledge of allegiance when school starts.

Those symbols don't matter to international capital.

in case anybody missed out, annexation is a nessecary precursor, to veiling a "tactical" nuclear option as legitimate

This. He really wants to use a nuke. Not least he needs to show the world they work and remind everyone that he has them to use whenever he wants.

I believe he will use one on the Ukrainians.

If we get to the other side of this those Star Wars plans might warrant a dusting off.

This should be grounds for removal from the UN Security Council, but I doubt that it is.

The UN charter doesn't contain any provision for expelling a permanent member of the Security Council. Russia is a permanent member by virtue of being considered the legal successor state of the USSR.

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-5

Please watch[1] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's remarks, you will understand that according to UN principles it is not annexation, but people own self-determination.

[1] https://youtu.be/1h8fFzMpnlw?t=936

Interestingly enough, nobody else in the UN agrees with that creative interpretation. Not even Serbia, India or Turkey.

Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres:

"The so-called “referenda” in Ukraine were conducted in areas under Russian occupation.

They can’t be called a genuine expression of the popular will."

https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/15755489651892142...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com