Layoffs at Canadian tech startups
theglobeandmail.com
theglobeandmail.com
> But implicit in that risk, Mr. Nayyar points out, is a lot of downside. Many executives thought, “but didn’t say out loud, that if demand disappeared or changed course – sometimes even slightly changed course – those people we brought on, it might not make sense to have them around any more. … You’re just a number on the page; whatever happens, happens.”
I have no doubt that a lot of tech companies, including Canadian startups like Shopify, hired like mad during the pandemic boom knowing full-well that they would end up laying off a bunch of those new hires once things got "normal" again.
A lesson to be learned for anyone taking a job in a fast-growing company is to really think about the value that your specific job brings to the company.
What is your direct contribution to the bottom line? Work this math into whatever official comms you get from your employer when trying to think about what your actual job security looks like.
That and be prepared for layoffs. Have a couple of months of runway put aside somewhere and don't touch it. Because I think these cycles of boom-then-bust for growth are only going to get more frequent.
Imo the issue usually is that interesting and value bringing work are usually not in alignment at these companies.
most companies i’ve worked at, no one wanted to work on ads and found them boring even though they brought in all the revenue.
everyone wanted to work on the experimental or shiny new thing which may not have demonstrated value yet.
but not sure if it’s worth working on the boring thing just for job safety
Why not capitalize on it while you can, and if it doesnt pan out just reverse course and fire fast.
If we always hired on expectations of layoffs (which i believe were incredibly generous from news reports) your current staff would be be beyond burnt out.
Damned if you do damned if you don't situation.
Different managers/directors/VPs have their own portfolios, their own budgets, their own roadmaps and KPIs. This leads to duplication, inefficiencies, and more.. But tech companies make so much money that in most cases this is accepted as cost of doing business - up to a point.
Also in some places, if you don't hire for your headcount, it becomes harder to get it back later when you truly need it..
There is a ton of organizational dysfunction like that in very larger companies (thousands of employees or more), even in the "best" companies that HN likes to fawn over.
Class solidarity is real.
...or indeed a coherent and unified vision on anything at all
> As the newest senior leader on Shopify’s engineering team, Polinsky will lead Shopify’s efforts to build its e-commerce infrastructure and will lead the company’s efforts to double its engineering team in 2021 by hiring 2,021 new technical staff. [0]
> “Engineering hiring is probably the biggest limiter to Shopify’s growth,” Harley Finkelstein [President of Shopify] said in an interview after the results. The company had hoped to hire 2,021 new engineers this year and current conditions mean “obviously, it’s hard to do that,” he said, without disclosing the number that have been hired. A tight market for talent is a worry for many industries but none more so than technology. Universities are not producing enough new engineers and the entire sector is competing for graduates, Finkelstein said. [1]
As of today they only have 10 open positions in the "Engineering & Development" department, the majority of which are for Staff/Tech Leads. [2]
Perhaps it would behoove Shopify to put a bit more thought into their hiring strategy; rather than just wanting to inflate engineer numbers as a vanity metric via jingly campaigns (2021 on 2021). "Just a number on the page".
[0] https://techcouver.com/2021/01/06/shopify-to-double-engineer... [1] https://archive.ph/RMzlm [2] https://www.shopify.com/careers/search?search%5Bkeywords%5D=...
I just looked and they're now advertising for that position again, with a fresh new posting. Just two months after their layoffs.
Dubious.
You should read Tobi's post about what happened. That's not how it was.
https://news.shopify.com/changes-to-shopifys-team#
> Before the pandemic, ecommerce growth had been steady and predictable. Was this surge to be a temporary effect or a new normal? And so, given what we saw, we placed another bet: We bet that the channel mix - the share of dollars that travel through ecommerce rather than physical retail - would permanently leap ahead by 5 or even 10 years.
> It’s now clear that bet didn’t pay off.
> Ultimately, placing this bet was my call to make and I got this wrong.
Shopify grew like mad, but it wasn't from vanity. If the bet had paid off, it would have meant a permanent step up in company value.
Bias: I'm one of the last developers hired before the stock crashed.
I did read that back when it was posted. I hope you recognize PR when you see it?
Sorry if it came across like I was saying that companies are being evil or bad or vain about how they're hiring. Quite the opposite, and more dangerously, I think companies see nothing wrong with the boom-then-bust approach to hiring, and that it's going to happen more.
And so my point here is that employees need to re-think how they look at job security in high-growth companies, and assume that they might be getting hired as part of a "bet" and not as part of a long-term strategy where the company has allocated the money to keep you around, like a lot of people assume when they take a full-time job (vs. a contract).
Plenty of larger tech companies that did layoffs, Shopify included, were never in any real financial trouble. They just made bets that didn't pay off, and so they corrected and moved on.
You made a bet on e-commerce penetration. The reason it was so easy for you to make that bet is because if you were correct, you’d be even more fabulously wealthy. If you were wrong (like you were), you could simply lay off the employees you hired and tuck the severance package into one quarter of extraordinary charges.
The employee view of that is that if you were right, they’d be somewhat wealthy and if you were wrong (which you were) their lives would be completely upended.
That’s all. It’s just an attempt to remind people that even CEOs who have good intentions (and author layoff memos in a cerebral tone without the help of PR) can still cause absolute havoc in their lives because of the asymmetry of the power dynamic.
That's your job, and everyone expects it.
It's like buying a car. I expect the dealer to tell me everything positive about buying the car and nothing negative, because, hey, he's a salesperson.
Even if you were being 100% factual and hiding nothing, nobody will actually believe that. It just comes with the territory.
The information is that the company thought it could grow more during the pandemic by hiring new people, and "bet" growth would stick around and those people could stay on in the long term. Is that wrong? Well, that's business. (I have absolutely no doubt, of course, that the "bet"-nature of the employment was carefully communicated during hiring.)
The PR is that this business decision is presented as a story of Shopify's brave history of taking on daring bets, its decision to take on another, its defeat at the hands of unflinching (completely external) factors, its kind treatment of employees that there is no option but to let go in these difficult times, and the new, refocused, decisive organization that will be reborn (after some people who joined 6 months ago get laid off).
It's not all bad. 16 weeks severance seems generous to me, letting people keep their chairs is kind of random but nice, the job referral stuff is a nice gesture, etc. I know all the nice things you did! The P was R'd!
It's just, at the end of the day, it's an obviously-business decision that's being told as something else. People got fucked over by a confluence of factors after the higher-ups decided to take a risk. There's no story here. There's no arc of Shopify History. The job of PR, regardless of the letters after the name of whoever writes it, is to make it seem like there is one when bad stuff happens.
This is pretty much the definition of anyone ever making any kind of public statement. Choosing ones words carefully with the knowledge that what they're saying will affect others perception of themselves and the situation at hand. I don't think anywhere in Tobi's post was it implying this _wasn't_ a business decision, I figured that went without saying. Shopify's a business, hiring decisions are an enormous consideration for businesses. Were you under the impression Shopify was a charity?
> I know all the nice things you did! The P was R'd!
As much as this is the way you cynically expect others might interpret Tobi's post, I think anyone with experience working in or running a business will have no problem understanding that businesses are not people and that messages from a CEO are not meant to be treated as blogposts or emotional diary entries.
> that messages from a CEO are not meant to be treated as blogposts or emotional diary entries.
I don't understand what you mean by this. Do you not believe the original post is written to elicit an emotional reaction? How do you interpret it?
> Those lines of code started a company and sent it on a fascinating journey full of wonder, toil, success, failure, ambition, and above all else comradery. Being on a journey, surrounded by great teammates, doing difficult things is what it's all about.
> Our customers are merchants, entrepreneurs, and small businesses owners - the bedrock of our economy and precisely those that are typically hit hardest during recessions. Most are already feeling it. We again have a clear objective in these challenging macro economic times, and we will use everything we’ve got to help them succeed and come out stronger. That’s our core mission.
etc. It reads far more emotional and blogposty than the typical dispassionate corporate layoff announcement ("Corp corp is reducing 10% of our workforce today. This change will allow us to be more agile and do more synergy.") The whole point of this comment chain is that despite the tone and better writing, it's essentially the same message.
If, OTOH, your point is "well obviously it's the same message but you should know that", well of course I know that. That's why I wrote my comment. I just find it sort of frustrating, and the author's response tone-deaf to the issue with it. It's a layoff announcement. Drop the beginning and end about the incredible journey and Shopify's crucial mission. The middle is mostly good.
Whether you wrote it or not (and fair that my post may have implied you didn't - my fault), any note/post/message that you publish on the Shopify website is still public relations comms, coming from the CEO of a prominent public company.
I'm not jaded, but I'm also not naive. ;-)
There’s the rub. The parent’s suggestion was that, probably, the new hires weren’t told anything along the lines of “Hey, this is a crazy gamble and it might not work out. Sign here to play.”
Yes, it’s implied in “startups”. But companies as large as shopify aren’t generally hiring people from the startup scene anymore. People are (were?) leaving good, stable jobs to go there. Only they know what their expectations were.
That's a gross mischaracterization, and it weakens your argument. It wasn't a "crazy gamble." It was a calculated risk, one that I think even in hindsight looks like a reasonable one to make at the time.
I think the overall question is whether it would have been better for those jobs never to have existed in the first place, rather than having existed for a year or so before being eliminated.
And, in truth, I think it's a very fair question - many people might value a higher level of stability, even if it results in overall lower total wages in the long term. For me, though, since I am in an industry that is, overall, growing and not showing any signs of slowing down in the medium-to-long term, I'm fine with taking a job even if I can get laid off at some point in the future. Spotify was very generous with severance IMO, and I don't think I'd have any problem finding another job within 3 months.
Again, I totally understand not everyone shares my view, but also other folks should understand that even as an employee I don't think that getting laid off is some sort of unforgivable crime.
> Was this surge to be a temporary effect or a new normal? And so, given what we saw, we placed another bet: We bet that the channel mix - the share of dollars that travel through ecommerce rather than physical retail - would permanently leap ahead by 5 or even 10 years.
In other words, it was a gamble that an unprecedented leap in global commercial behaviour was happening. Was there some reason to believe it could? Absolutely. Were the chances still extremely small? Also, absolutely.
And when you're "thinking in bets", as Shopify clearly is, you only risk what you can afford to lose. Other people's financial security is basically free for Shopify (a bit of severance in the worst case scenario).
it is the assume responsibility of the individual for their own financial security. If the bet that shopify made turned out to be great, those people that got hired wouldn't have a complaint about how much they've gained.
It's always a risk to move jobs, and even more risk to move to a growing company. People who do so would've implicitly accepted the risk - it's not on shopify to spell it out for them.
This is an extreme case of hindsight. You can only say so, definitively, looking back.
Were the chances that WFH proliferation will remain at pandemic levels high? No. Were the chances that opportunistic eshops will remain once prior corrects high? Debatable.
This is just more hindsight being employed.
It is so easy, so simple to look back, and proclaim one superior and correct.
Did you have these thoughts, and think all these precise things when people were hiring for pandemic booms?
Did you proclaim this loudly, put your reputation on the line, emphatically state that everyone was wrong, wrong!?
I doubt it.
I further doubt you, and the other poster, would have staked capital either way too. And you know why?
Because you didn't know with surety. Because this is all hindsight.
Heck, I'm willing to bet you had no opinion at all about this specific topic at all a year ago. None.
Unless you looked at this, thought about this, you're looking back.
Hindsight.
The theme of this thread is risk taken by employees. Sure, it can very easily be characterised as "calculated risk" for the company. Was that risk calculated for employees?
Its not like shopify is even that good of a job for developers, they pay well below FAANG. Checking levels, Senior SWEs are only getting like 15k/year in grants which means you are taking on the start up risk without the potential 10x or 100x payoff.
What makes you think the execs don't get fired?
Doesn't matter if it's labor, or widgets.
One of my orgs had layoffs. Similar story.
Now we are hiring like mad again.
Truth is that they just jumped like spooked horses and laid off piles of people to keep investors happy for the quarter. That’s all you are to these people.
So many of them went heavy on "comfort wear", thinking that somehow everyone will still be working from home and that going out will be an exception, not the norm. Many even expanded or created entirely new "home" lines that included selling towels, comforters, candle holders, etc.
Now they're all finding out that people want normal, going-out clothes again, and their current catalogs just don't line up with the demand.
The "new normal" was touted around way too aggressively. At least here in my reality, it's mostly gone back to the old normal with vestiges of the "new" remaining.
But nobody seems to have anticipated the Ukraine war and the sancitons hitting back the West itself, exacerbating inflation in the US and creating record inflation in Europe.
That really kicked the balls of the tech industry. And judging from national currencies being used more in international trade now, its likely that the old environment with infinite cash and little to no inflation in the US will not return. Since all the dollars that are not being used by countries that are now trading in their own currencies seem to flow back to the US, causing inflation.
Its likely that this may end the high cash influx, bloated stock share value economy and make the old format non-workable. But in the long run when the inflation and the prices settle, ecommerce should still be a profitable activity. Except that now companies would be valued on what actual revenue they are making, instead of the elusive and unpredictable potential value into the next decade which may or may not come.
In short, less WeWorks, more companies with an actual business model that works immediately or in visible future.
1. Why would Shopify willingly hire and train lots of people during the pandemic if they knew they'd let them go afterwards anyways? This makes no economic sense at all, they'd be better off to silently burn that money and not take the reputation hit.
2. You assume that layoff decisions take your individual job and situation into account. This is not the case in practice, especially so in quota driven mass layoffs.
The opinion is that, if that was the plan (which Tobi's layoff post seems to confirm), that it's a crass way to operate. People uprooted their lives to work there. They quit old jobs, maybe moved cities or countries. Of course layoffs happen and companies make mistakes, but deliberately setting up a strategy with a high possibility of failure ("a bet") and then hiring people knowing that they'll be laid off if things outside their control don't go right in the near future--that's sort of crass.
Obviously no exec was twirling their mustache and saying "find me Jim, we'll fire him first because I hate him". It was just a plan set up, seemingly, without regard for the outsized risk it placed on new employees relative to the possibility of the business itself failing. New employees that would disproportionately be affected by a layoff, by nature of being new employees.
This is really the only solution. Really, outside of very apparent issues with a company, no one has job security. It is an illusion.
You must behave, financially, as if tomorrow is your last day at work.
Because I think these cycles of boom-then-bust for growth are only going to get more frequent.
People have been saying this for decades. If true, I think it is derived from a faster news cycle more than anything.
Ultimately, it's the same issue as what's happened (and happening) in the US: the VC fun money dried up, and it's no longer cool to be an unprofitable business with a lot of "growth potential". Now tech leadership is being forced to balance a budget and figure out a path to profitability instead of just perpetually increasing revenues at negative margins.
Why do those make it worse? Lower investment rates means less money to lose, R&D is often trimmed first, and investment should go to lower risk in this kind of environment. And costs shouldn't be much higher than USA.
I think the problem is actually the opposite. People say the US is willing to take risks which is why their tech and startup scene is so good. Among the complaints about all other countries trying to work out how to become the "next silicon valley", near the top is almost universally "risk adverse". I think that's backwards though, investments in Canada and other such places in tech startup are very high risk and speculative, because people are just closing their eyes and praying that these fanciful predictions about being the next silicon valley are true and they hit it big, rather than being based on any real evidence or logic.
True it's often governments engaging in this reckless risky spending, which seems to make it appear to be "low risk" to other investors. That doesn't make it so though.
Just look at Canada's GDP per capita over time versus the US'. Or the fact our only job growth since the pandemic started has been in government jobs. Our private sector is dying because it's more profitable to simply move money to the US or to put it all into unproductive real estate.
I mean you have lower rates so the downturn will have a smaller impact in an absolute sense.
> Just look at Canada's GDP per capita over time versus the US'. Or the fact our only job growth since the pandemic started has been in government jobs. Our private sector is dying because it's more profitable to simply move money to the US or to put it all into unproductive real estate.
Sure. If the downturn has a disproportional impact despite the sector's small size (investment), then it's because it was a far riskier investment than others.
??? Ours is at the same as the US...
> because it was a far riskier investment than others.
Downturns are more about whether or not consumers still spend, which is based on their savings rate and willingness to invest.
"lower investment rates,"
> Downturns are more about whether or not consumers still spend, which is based on their savings rate and willingness to invest.
For tech startups focused on selling to the government, that doesn't really apply. And for those that aim to sell their product internationally it's not specific to the country they are based in.
Higher investment is NEVER a bad thing. We're not talking putting money in the stock market, we're talking willingness to put money to use.
> Like many other things affecting western countries though, it's worse in Canada since we have lower investment rates
And I am asking why that made it worse. Less investment means less investment to lose. Canada could lose 100% of their VC investment and it would have less of an impact in terms of people affected than a small trim in the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment_(macroeconomics)
https://archive.unescwa.org/investment-spending
I think you're thinking of a different definition of "investment". Since this is a discussion of the economy, I'm using the "economics" definition of investment spending.
You don't "lose" infrastructure, land, machinery, etc... in a downturn. The point is that Canada spends less of our wealth on things that improve the economy. Half as much as the US (as a % of the economy).
The VC scene in the US will help your recovery since VCs will still be putting money into the system (albeit at lower valuations) meanwhile in Canada it'll completely dry up.
And again, this isn't the type of "investing" where you're super concerned about paper losses like, say, the stock market.
Also software does count as an economic investment, the same as infrastructure.
Are you making up this as you go along? VCs absolutely look for returns and they're much less patient than what you would call a long term investor. If they don't see returns on investment from growing equity, they'll can it.
> The VC scene in the US will help your recovery since VCs will still be putting money into the system (albeit at lower valuations) meanwhile in Canada it'll completely dry up.
We're talking about the effect of investment fleeing due to the downturn though. In absolute terms, the amount of investment leaving USA is far larger because the investment in Canada tech companies is so small.
> And again, this isn't the type of "investing" where you're super concerned about paper losses like, say, the stock market.
Now you're definitely making things up. That's the only thing tech startup VCs care about. They don't even care if they know it's a sham, so long as they'll be able to cash out and leave someone else holding the bag.
> Also software does count as an economic investment, the same as infrastructure.
You've lost me. Tech startups create very little in the way of long term valuable assets like infrastructure. In any case it doesn't matter what kind of strange way you like to classify these things, doesn't change what they are.
Wealthsimple might have funding issues (I'm not sure), but it lost a lot of use because again, its growth was driven by people bored at home.
But it still floats on the inflated stock values like a majority of the big tech companies.
Yeah, it was. Now it will likely have to be dependent on the underlying business. At least, in the US. In Europe it was always highly tied to the success of the company's business. To profits, especially.
In the US it was more like 'this will take over the market and go big in the future'. But, a lot of major companies haven't been able to do that. From Facebook to Twitter. Not even talking about those like WeWork or Uber.
And sometimes that 'investor' can be the company itself, doing a stock buyback. Or prices rising because of a corporate tax cut. Often times these swings in share price have nothing to do with the underlying business.
Yep. Bye bye infinite cash injection to the economy without inflation.
The unfortunate lesson that every Canadian working in the tech field will learn is that if you're really talented and experienced, you're going to ultimately be faced with the stark choice of accepting a dramatically lower salary for the privilege of living and working in Vancouver or Toronto, maybe because you have family obligations or can't/won't move to the USA. While you will see your peers who are free to move take jobs at double the salary in USD-equivalent in the US.
Don't forget how, after Trump's election in 2016, Canadian media proclaimed at length how hordes of tech companies and employees would flee north of the border. Montreal as "AI superpower", anyone?
They usually go for the least plausible business models for some reason
Indeed, I certainly remember the days when Montreal was said to be the next "AI superpower".
How much of that was driven by the media predicting after Trump's election in 2016 that hordes of tech companies and employees would flee north of the border? (And how much of that reporting, in turn, was driven by smug Trudeau government bureaucrats who actually believed what they told sympathetic/gullible reporters?)
(Though I think MILA is kind of losing some of its lustre, both in terms of research output and quality. I guess it might just be that my friends there are mostly doing RL or cognitive research, which I both find to be pretty... unpractical? They give me a 1980s AI dead-end vibes, but that's obviously purely personal biais)
Companies responded with mass hiring as money was everywhere. They grossly underestimated the complexity of running an engineering org and now the bill is due. I think until the old guards come back, we will see the pain exacerbate.
PS: It's an opinion
They better hope we end up in a deep recession, because they're not fit to compete for talent when there's employers out there hiring remote at competitive rates.
Lot of indiscriminate hiring happened to puff up the leak. Companies were flushed with money. But that was a failing strategy. Companies can continue to go down that path, it will have further diminishing returns
But TBH the hiring frenzy was happening long before that. When I left (end of last year), I heard Google had hired something like half its staff just during the pandemic period. Not sure if I believe that, but if so, that's crazy. None of those people even saw the inside of the office.
I've read that FAANG companies like Facebook and Google dramatically increased their headcount in the last couple of years during the pandemic. It definitely seems like jobs were being handed out like candy and now companies are going to feel the consequences.
I'm doing the startup game for a bit to try to re-ignite the spark. A few weeks away from Google and I was excited to write code again. Google sucked the motivation out of me.
Like it or not, there's people willing to take those positions. No where near as many as Canadian companies would like, but they are there.
When was this?
Note that $11/hr CAD is below the current minimum wage of every Canadian province and territory as of June 1 2022 [0]
As an aside - what leads to a talented individual doing dev for $11/hr CAD? I'm not able to conjure up a scenario where that is the case other than they were working for their own startup ... ?
[0] https://www.retailcouncil.org/resources/quick-facts/minimum-...
About 10 years ago, at the time the minimum wage was around $9/hr to $10/hr or so. Adjusted for inflation it'd be around $13.78 in today's money.
> As an aside - what leads to a talented individual doing dev for $11/hr CAD? I'm not able to conjure up a scenario where that is the case other than they were working for their own startup ... ?
They were freshly graduated, with low cost of living at that time. But like many new graduates, were having difficulty getting that first job, which caused a measure of desperation. Throw in the fact that the problem domain we were working on at the time was genuinely interesting, and it's not too difficult to convince yourself that kind of money isn't so bad. At least for a while.
All in all I see plenty of tech talent, it's just that, internationally, tech talent doesn't see Denmark as an obvious choice to which to relocate. Nine times out of 10, that's the U.S.
Probably the only relevant metric.
In one case they were bought, so now they were part of a 75k+ employee behemoth. But still, with only some irony, called themselves "scrappy".
In another they're still privately owned, but are over 7 years old, with close to 500 employees, and allegedly #1 in their space. I feel they like to hide behind this "startup" idea because it relieves them of putting on the big-boy pants and accepting that the expense of moving fast being the #1 priority is actually something they're having a hard time paying.
Honestly, it seems like a mostly self-selected tag used to indicate culture -- e.g., expectations of working conditions (hours, for instance) that in "normal" business we have long ago realized are actually counter-productive.
Which, frankly, at this point might very well include every company founded since Facebook and including FB. Maybe every tech company post-dot com bubble is spiritually a startup.
This is _precisely_ how I've seen it (mis)used; a (IMO very creepy) need to hang on to those wonder-years that got you there. It's also when you typically see the "visionary" type leaders start heading out and doing it over again.
AFAICT they think it means using kanban boards and having standup meetings.
Another thought leader, Steve Blank, writes that "a startup is an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model" (https://steveblank.com/2010/01/25/whats-a-startup-first-prin...).
A lot of the "startup type" characteristics of a company can possibly be correlated with one of the above categories. If you don't fall in either category, it would be weird to display those characteristics.
Nowhere near dot-bomb territory of course (and the dynamics are different) but the market has changed.
FAANGS still offer upwards of 1m/year compensation.
Freezes and slowdowns don't really need to get announced. We've definitely seen an uptick in candidate quality (we're especially keen on an open position in data to work w/ DOJ leadership on-site in DC!), and while the growing graph AI market can explain some of the interest, the broader industry slowdowns elsewhere have to be part of it.
Startups are a crapshoot; not a sure thing. Startups sputter and fail in the best of times and worst of times.
You can go through 30 years of career doing nothing but hopping from one failed startup to another, which can span a bubble or two and a couple of recessions.
Software? Most software ever written has been a commercial flop. Not a single customer.
Yes of course when things get truly bad companies need to lay off staff, but what we are seeing is people being fired to preserve a profit margin and CEOs are massive bonuses.