The penalty point is an important one for the above. If you only plan on holding them for the minimum of 12 months and the second half interest rate is 3% then your effective annualized return is 5.48% (1.0962^.5*1.03^.25).

>I-bonds issued today yield essentially zero percent after inflation, and this will be true for as long as you hold them.

Yes and no, I-bonds use a trailing inflation definition so you receive a real advantaged proportionally to the difference in current and past inflation rates; this is of course speculative.