Here is paper from the Atlanta Fed which tries to explain the effect of QT [1]

"I show that a passive roll-off of $2.2 trillion over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion being doubled, it is equivalent to a 74 basis point increase."

[1] https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/public...