What cards is that? Demanding that China cut off ties to the West and potentially lose trillions? Start a nuclear war and lose everything? Hope and pray every person in the country that has a little cash to their name doesn't flee? Hope that pretty much every technology company on the planet doesn't do business with them?

Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine, they are currently deciding how many men they will lose before they leave.

The battle now is for what will be left of their nation state when they are done.

There's a difference between the integrity of the Russian state and the continuation of Putin's regime. It's not clear to me what the odds of the Russian state breaking up are if Putin were to lose power.