If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor
Inflation compounds and we've been at relatively high inflation for a while now. Of course the Biden admin will want to just normalize this sustained inflation.
People are effectively getting around a month of salary stolen from them. Transaction cost of a new job hurts most people & depresses wage growth (the obvious side-effect of monetary expansionism).
It's fair to say that we won't experience deflation since no central bank will allow that. And our high debt load prevents raising interest rates anywhere near the necessary amount, if you compare it to Volcker. The only responses they seem to have, in practice, are: print tons of money or print slightly less than that.
We're trapped in a debt spiral and my guess is that the world suffers enormously from central planning (artificially low interest rates in the modern era in order to finance government disasters) and the US suffers less than everyone else because of their global hegemony (reserve status), economy & geography.
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That being said, I agree with you. Core-CPI exists for a reason, and its a better measure of long-term trends. Oil/food prices change dramatically, while they're important real world measures of cost of living, they change too quickly to be useful. We should typically ignore oil/food prices and focus on other costs of living to try to glean the longer-term trend.
But what's even worse than using "CPI" or "core-CPI", is when people switch between the two to make a focused political argument, rather than an analysis into the state of the economy. Stay consistent damn it.
We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.
Mid-term elections are approaching and gas pump prices are an easy talking point. With SPR releases, why won't USA fuel prices drop?
And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.
When the SPR draining is finished (for midterms), upward pressure on energy prices globally will resume.
I think we'll find that just like reports of Mark Twain's death, rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated.
Only if people are stupid enough to repeat the last two years of nonsense. Take away all the fear mongering and testing and you probably wouldn't even notice covid was a thing. You'd get sick like you always do and just shrug it off as "that thing that was going around" like we all did in 2019...
It has significantly affected workforce participation, with a large disability burden.
You'd notice. Unless you're somewhat dense.
As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem.
What is needed is
- data transparency, instead of reduced data collection.
- targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusing on leading indicators, not trailing ones.
- a medical system that actually makes the tools we have available, as opposed to undermining them and pricing them out of range.
- a focus on ventilation.
- a normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings.
None of those are close to "lockdowns". That's a strawman nobody is asking for.
> normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings.
However, I am curious how this is not normalized now? It’s personal choice where I live and nobody blinks twice if you want to wear it. And my state is full of antimaskers. The issue becomes when you expect other people to wear it and they don’t want to.
There is such a thing as collective responsibility and a social compact.
For example I could care less about someone wearing a mask if they want. I am not staying home for not wearing a mask. If I’m reading you right, you’d want me to stay home. So, we’re pretty far from any type of social compact and IMO have no hope for getting there given so many more people feel much more extreme about it than myself.
Social compact is an agreement and nobody is agreeing on this. Somehow everyone mostly agrees with pants.
Not to make it a personal attack, but I really find it strange how the “extreme measures” cohort of people on Covid and risks are still at it with this type of stuff. The news cycle on Covid is over. The turmoil is still happening but for most people the disease is not a daily concern anymore. They’ve resumed their lives. Are you still hoping things like mandatory masks become a thing? Do you really believe that’s even tenable? On a global scale? I never viewed that as particularly possible given how much cooperation would be required.
What is a lockdown if that isn’t? And how come those “real lockdown” places still have Covid? Or did they not “lockdown” hard enough either? I’m very confused here.
And as I explained to you above, nobody except you is in any form talking about lockdowns. Put the strawman down already, it's starting to get worn on the edges.
Covid mortality rates for those in the working age are meh. More people died of accidents than everyone under the age of 55 from Covid.
> so we can continue in the lavish lifestyles to which we've become accustomed
We should just tax the rich instead, which of course is the true source of that lavish lifestyle.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Inflation isn't increasing much in August - relatively to July, but July was still high.
That graph needs to go negative (a decrease in the inflation rate each month) for a long time before we get back to something "normal" like 2-3% inflation.