Musk admits he announced Hyperloop to get California’s high-speed rail canceled | Hacker News Reader

Musk admits he announced Hyperloop to get California’s high-speed rail canceled

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65 pointstrasz24 comments

"Admits"?

This is phrased as if it is some bombshell, when it seems this was obvious from the beginning. Elon's been a critic of the CA High Speed Rail project for nearly a decade! [0] The literal whitepaper that announced the Hyperloop concept contrasts itself to the CA Rail project on the damn first page! [1] He's basically been screaming for everyone to aim higher instead of accepting mediocrity even relative to what already exists across the pond.

The Hyperloop project itself was proposed clearly and explicitly to contrast with the CA rail project, suggesting "maybe this is what we could do if only we tried!" In practically all the public appearances about this project (and in explanations for why he founded SpaceX) he's been clear and repetitive in stating that he wants to see inspiring things get built, if for no other reason than for us to want to get out of bed in the morning.

Of course Musk desired the CA rail project not to be built. And of course he didn't intend to build the Hyperloop himself. He'd been plenty explicit about that as well -- it's the explanation for why this was a paper and not a 5th company he's CEO of today.

[0] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/376439054209781761 [1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperl...

California’s high speed rail is such a misbegotten mess that it’s the height of delusion to think Musk influences its fate.

And youre against easy transportation around the state because ...? edit ... im gonna go in with im am voting NO for fixing any major, non trucking roads in the future. your future hybrid SUV better have wings and graceful landings.

The following ideas are not mutually exclusive:

1. Easy transportation around the state is a good idea

2. If the original plan was to build 500 miles of high speed rail from SF to LA for $33b by 2029, but what we actually get in the year 2030 is 120 miles of HSR from Merced to Bakersfield for $120b, maybe the project is a mismanaged mess

That's simply false. And you know that.

They've spent about 10.3 billion so far not all of which has been spent on the central valley section. And this spring they approved 4.2 billion to finish the initial section. So we're talking 13 billion for 100 miles. One tenth your claim.

Worse for the Nimby's and industry funded AstroTurf groups is the last court challenges have failed. And so the courts can no longer be used to slow things down either. All they can do is continue to pay for doom and gloom articles to be published.

What's your source? Wikipedia cites several sources at a budget of over 100m. The fact is this project is over 4x the initial budget sold to voters. It's a total money pit and political scam.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail#:....

What's 4×, in more detail?

Let me describe a project I know: This thing was approved and is now well over budget. This happened because they decided to increase capacity by about 50% after getting approval, because of additional noise insulation required, and because construction prices have increased by perhaps 20% in the last couple of years. These added up to a doubling or a little more.

Could you describe the components of that HSR 4× overrun in a similar level of detail?

Follow the link

I read it a while ago. At a glance it doesn't seem to have changed much. Which part do you have in mind?

Wow. Can’t find an article to back up your extraneous claim.

I would put the causation the other way round.

California's High Speed Rail became one of those politically divisive things, and Elon's political tribe would be on the opposite side of it. So he'd hear a lot about how terrible and slow it was.

Did he intentionally announce a stupid idea that could be used to undermine it? I don't know, that seems a bit Moriarity like. Maybe he just proposed a stupid solution to a 'problem' that didn't really exist because he gets a lot of misinformation in his news sources.

Like this argument:

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-w...

They go into real depth about how building sprawl is better for the planet:

> One argument against allowing more travel is that it uses energy and produces greenhouse gas emissions. But compact cities tend to be more congested cities, and that congestion wastes more fuel. According to the Department of Energy, people who live in densities of 10,000 to 25,000 people per square mile (densities found in such places as Chicago and San Francisco) drive about 16 percent fewer miles than people who live in densities of 1,000 to 2,000 people (typical of low‐ density suburbs). But the vehicles in the denser areas average about 17 mph while lower‐ density vehicles move about 26 mph. The department also says that vehicles moving at 25 mph use 25 percent less fuel per mile as vehicles moving at 15 mph.138 Thus, people living in denser areas may actually use more fuel than people in low‐ density areas. Since greenhouse gas emissions are proportional to petroleum fuel consumption, people in the denser areas also emit more greenhouse gases.

That's a lot of words for a very stupid premise. Are they pro-fossil fuels, anti-government, just trolling? Yes to all three I think.

According to this random (obviously socially/politically motivated) twitter user, who says they heard it from someone else who was allegedly told this in private. That's pretty far from "Musk admits".

From reading the excerpt of the book Paris Marx quotes [0], Musk's criticism of the California HSR project seems focused on its cost & effectiveness (i.e. that the bullet train would be too slow, especially considering modern tech that's now available).

Another way to frame his comments would be to say that Musk wanted to suggest a better alternative to the HSR project. I'm not sure which framing is the more accurate (not that well versed on trains), but seems valuable to point out ; I'm not convinced by the framing that Musk unveiled Hyperloop because he secretly wanted _no train at all_.

[0]: https://twitter.com/parismarx/status/1557707438786330629

I'm inclined to split the difference. He had legitimate criticisms and for the most part his ultimate goals seem beneficial, but at the same time he's self-interested and seems happy to ensure he's the one making the buck in the process.

I don't know how seriously anyone can take any of his criticisms, considering the lack of foresight into the physical possibilities of the things that he actually suggests. It's nonsense

Maintaining the vacuum of the hyperloop would have used more energy than it would have saved from friction and reducing air friction would not have gained any noticeable speed over a well designed bullet train

Plus have you seen the weird top heavy transportation thing he suggested lately? It's entirely absurd

Dude sells cars now. Of course he is against trains.

I'm referring to the physical impossibility of the things he suggests. Barely anybody seems to notice how entirely unfeasible his ideas are.

That's besides the fact that he makes wild claims about his car tech while they have numerous quality control issues and never live up to those claims.

He's just a profiteer and I don't know why anyone listens to him

People that prefer to be parked in tunnels rather than reading a book on a train?

And he's pushing stuff like the Boring Tunnel that's in Las Vegas which is such a downgrade from trains. They can transport a few thousand people per hour, but also still suffer from traffic congestion, orders of magnitude worse than rail systems overseas, or something like MTA in NYC. No one should be paying attention to his suggestions for public transportation.

I don't know if the hl actually influenced the development of the hsr, but that project itself wasn't enough. The USA sorely needs extensive and affordable passenger rail if we want to cut down on airline emissions

I suppose announcing illegitimate children is an attempt to get marriage cancelled. Interesting strategy.

As long as transportation remains very much car centric, high speed rail isn't going to take off. I don't really know much about transportation systems in the USA except for what I read online. The train network can only connect the big cities or smaller ones on the route. Surely the bigger question is how do people travel once they get off the train. It's again back to cars unless most major cities have a robust public transportation system. Elon Musk as a businessman wouldn't want to miss that opportunity to push an alternative to high speed rail and sell more cars!

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