Facebook Targeting IPO for Between April and June

Also, they're probably hoping that people will have forgotten about the EU's disdain for Facebook's entire profit model[1], which could wreak havoc on their viability in the market. Facebook really needs to step up its game by developing some technology or business method equally as disruptive as they were to the social networking industry in 2004. I would imagine this could take the form of quasi-gamification, where the information people disclose and allow Facebook to use is treated as de facto currency for how they can interact with the site.

In that regard, users would receive the service in exchange for something of value to Facebook--information. Their current Statement of Rights and Responsibilities requires users to grant Facebook a "non-exclusive, transferable, sub-licensable, royalty-free, worldwide license to use any IP content that you post on or in connection with Facebook."[2] To me, this is unconscionable, since the service you receive remains constant, while what you 'pay' (the consideration) varies with your level of usage. While one could reasonably argue that the quality of service you receive increases with respect to your level of interaction (i.e., you can't chat with friends until you connect with friends), there's a certain level of unforeseeability inherent in Facebook's intended use at the time you disclose that information (such as making a friend request, wall post, liking a page, etc.)

There are some even more troubling issues, as well. Interacting with third-party services via the application platform (by installing apps) gives those services access to your information. Once they have it, you're bound by their terms of use and privacy policies. I'd love to see the exhaustion rule/first-sale doctrine[3] discussed vis-a-vis data privacy, since I'm unsure whether it would apply to "data." We saw this discussed tangentially by the web sites attempting to create marketplaces to sell used MP3s[4]--the first-sale doctrine allows you to resell used books, used CDs, etc., but can it allow service providers to sell its copy of "used" data? What about the putative buyers of "used" data--are they bound by Facebook's Special Provisions Applicable to Developers/Operators of Applications and Websites? All of these are questions with answers that could have an extremely disruptive impact on Facebook's entire profit model.

[1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/facebook/8917836/Faceb...

[2] https://www.facebook.com/terms.php

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-sale_doctrine

[4] http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110218/12432213167/yet-an...

Did anyone not see that coming? I mean seriously, the whole creative accounting thing should have scared anyone with a brain off the IPO. If their unsustainable business model hadn't already.

I wish my startup was so embarassed as to have merely a market cap of $9.7 billion.

"They're probably hoping that everyone will have forgotten about the Groupon IPO by then."

If the lockup period ends mid December and the stock tanks then this is only 3 months for the markets to forget. Doesn't seem long enough to me, though it may not make sense to wait anymore either.

GRPN is an embarrassment depending on whom you ask. The founders know exactly what they're doing -- they cashed out long ago.

Facebook and Groupon have basically nothing in common.

AFAIK, they already went over the 500 shareholders limit so they have to open the books whether they IPO or not.

I'm not even that sold on social media in general, but I'm comfortable with Facebook as a company due to three main factors:

1) Great leadership (Mark obviously, but a lot of the other people around him, all the way down to Manager level, are great; the drop 1-2 levels to join FB thing seems to have paid off)

2) Attract great team (it seems to be the strongest recruiting organization for a company its size, and overall I'd say FB engineering hires are among the best)

3) Successful track record of innovating and turning even fairly mundane problems into technology showcases

Even if this whole "social media" thing peters out in a few years, I think Facebook will continue to innovate and remain a dominant player in whatever comes next.

When i think about the volume, maybe it won't be that bad. A demand based increase will be unlikely and there could be a lot of institutional portfolio investments. I rather see this money at Facebook to be independent, what also means less uncertainty for the users and their data.