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Specifically regarding your second paragraph: I think you’re overlooking the market’s ability to value tech stock. If everyone knows Netflix is gonna jump 20% a year for the next 5 years then everyone would dump their entire savings, take the penalty and reinvest their IRAs even, into Netflix. Why doesn’t this happen?

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Because there is never a point at which everyone knows that Netflix is going to jump 20% a year for 5 years.

That's my point. There are times at which people think this is what it's going to do, and after it's done it lots of people believe it to have been clear in hindsight. But the situation where people know in advance for sure that there will be huge excess returns never occurs.

Netflix is a great example. Would you have been keen to take a large amount of income deferred and in stock at the point when streaming was just a weird perk bundled with the DVD mailing subscription?

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