Couldn’t you use the 200k cash alternative to buy AAPL, theoretically, and end up in the same boat? And in that case you can also buy a mix of other stocks to diversify instead of having it all in one company. I’d take cash any day personally.
Part of the power of RSU packages is that is equivalent to a very large stock purchase that is a multiple of your earning power that you earn out of over time.
So yes, if you have a lot of liquid capital, taking a $200K/yr stock package from Apple in 2019 is "equivalent" to putting $800K into AAPL all at once. The trick is that more people can do the former than the latter.
If you got cash then you'd have made $200k the first year, $200k the second and $200k the third.
If you got RSUs then you'd have made $350k the first year, $660k the second and $800k the third.
If you got cash then you'd have made $400k the first year, $400k the second and $400k the third.
If you got RSUs then you'd have made $550k the first year, $860k the second and $1000k the third.
First year make 400k, buy 200k worth of something that is not just one egg basket. But because it's salary you do that every ~2 weeks so you end up with hopefully more than 200k by end of year already too. Continue example over the other 3 years.
Yes the upside is smaller as I would assume the broader market part would return less in the upside case. The point is that your downside is 'better'. Instead of your tech stock tanking over proportionally you'd be down less or be even or could decide to stay in cash mid year as markets tank and interest rises or buy something else like a house. It basically allows for better 'control' and a less bad worst case at the cost of being able to 'win the lottery'.
Of course you are right that just buying one stock, even if not your own company from the cash is actually worse overall. If you were gonna do that, just get the RSUs.
RSUs have downsides. That was never in question in this thread (as much as people keep affirming it).
RSUs also have financial upside over the equivalent amount of cash. That's the thing people keep trying to explain but also seems to get brushed off.
$100k cash and $200k RSUs per year in a stock that increases by 10% each year: after 4 years I have $400k cash and $1.171mm in stock.
$100k cash and $200k cash given to me at the beginning of the year to buy the same stock for 4 years: $400k cash and $1.021mm in stock.
They're just not the same. RSUs have leverage. They have upside and downside.
For a less sky rockety company that still offers RSUs I would take my chances with the cash and actually ending up in a better boat.
That also means the risk of RSUs is also not as high as you paint it out since you don't keep them for 4 years. After the 1 year cliff you can sell them as they vest. So you're only risking future money rather than money you've already gotten. Unless the stock goes below the original stock price then you're still ahead. If it does then you either get a top up or find a new job.
No you couldn't.
You'd have to put in several years of 200k of cash up front to end up in the same boat.