FedEx warns of global recession, cutting forecast by half a billion dollars | Hacker News Reader

FedEx warns of global recession, cutting forecast by half a billion dollars

lite.cnn.com

63 pointsyuan4315 comments

> FedEx Ground service, which is the primary way the company handles deliveries of online purchases made by US consumers, missed its sales target by $300 million.

After last year, there is no way I would ship anything Fedex Ground -- at least not until they've had a few years to correct some serious issues. Pretty much every Fedex Ground parcel I had during peak had some sort of major drama -- lost, damaged, severely delayed, misdelivered, you name it. Everyone had problems during peak in '21, but Fedex had an absolute meltdown.

I had a parcel shipped to me on the west coast to a very close distribution center. I then tracked it shipped back to the east coast, then finally settling somewhere in New Hampshire.

When I reached out to the original retailer via customer support we both had a good laugh and they got me a replacement shipped via a different vendor same-day.

My take is large companies have gotten so fed up of fed-ex that they either leveraged it to negotiate bottom barrel pricing or moved to an alternative service.

To be fair FedEx packages were extremely expensive in the last year. Like 200$ for a small international parcel. Of course the "demand" for such an expensive service dropped.

Shipping 1 parcel for $200 in 2022, is the same earnings as shipping 2 parcels for $100 pre-covid.

This is what's happening in the economy. The total number of transactions of goods and services have been dropping. But those few transactions are priced higher than pre-covid. So it "appears" that earnings are high. Companies have been sabotaging themselves by increasing prices so much that their number of customers are dropping fast.

> This is what's happening in the economy. The total number of transactions of goods and services have been dropping. But those few transactions are priced higher than pre-covid.

Source for this claim?

The BEA tracks quantities of goods and services produced in detail every quarter, and their data shows that for most categories, quantities are up, not down, since pre-COVID (i.e., Q4 2019). [1]

There are a exceptions where quantities are down: energy goods, health care, transportation services, recreation services, transportation equipment, private investment in structures, certain nondurable goods, and the output of nonprofit institutions. All other categories are actually up since before COVID. This includes motor vehicle part production, durable goods, restaurant food, clothing, housing/utilities, industrial equipment, computer hardware, etc. Overall, the quantity increases are slightly outweighing the quantity decreases, according to the standard measure.

[1] Table 1.5.3. Real Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail, Quantity Indexes , https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

for an envelope its usually between 90 and 120 USD to ship international. not sure if that's what you mean exactly by small parcel.

Check your rates if you're paying that much. I can ship envelopes via FedEx to Europe for $30-$45. Even less with DHL.

Depending on your volume, you can negotiate better rates. (I work for a company that audits Fedex and helps customers get better rates)

I remember paying $120 for a letter from Panama to the US via Fedex almost 10 years ago. And Fedex has a decent presence in Panama. It's not cheap by any means in one-off scenarios.

I'm guessing you use a corporate account and ship international regularly. those discounts can really rack up. try creating a shipment without the account, I doubt its lower than 80. source: I work at a fedex office and process international shipments every day.

My mother in law is in a legal profession and they are constantly mailing stuff. For the past couple years she said they’ve switched to UPS even for overnight stuff. FedEx was way too expensive. She said even USPS could be faster and cheaper than FedEx. Shipped a few things overnight this year and UPS was cheaper.

> legal profession and they are constantly mailing stuff.

Yeah, including to far-flung hotels for use in depositions.

Way back in the day, we used to take advantage of this and ship huge boxes of stuff for vacations instead of checking bags. It was far cheaper and much more convenient! Pack up anything you want and add a pair of scissors and a roll of packing tape. FedEx would pick it up from your house and send it to the hotel, which would keep it for you until you arrived. Because you filled out the shipping label like the lawyers did, every big hotel in the world already knew how to deal with it. When you left, use the scissors and packing tape to put everything back in the boxes, and tell the front desk you have some boxes that need to go to the loading dock for FedEx.

Law firm discount codes were insanely good :)

Sad to hear that this is no longer a good deal :(

I got a quote for like $800 to ship a monitor to Mexico from Georgia. Fucking bonkers. Cheaper to just buy things there or risk checking bags.

During Covid I shipped multiple suitcase-sized boxes (62in total max dimensions like a suitcase) from India to USA for $250 each via UPS. Arrived perfectly intact in California 3 days later without any customs drama. It probably helped that their flights heading east to west via Europe aren't super full.

Fedex wanted 100 dollars for 3 day shipping 1 state away for a sweater I wanted to ship last week.

Not sure who their market is.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com