Partially this is confusing "Scott Alexander won a bet" with "compositionality is solved." And also, I'm not sure Scott won the bet? Changing people to robots is a cheap trick. I think Imagen should have been disqualified because it won't do people.

Vitor took the other side of the bet and he is also not convinced [1]:

> I'm not conceding just yet, even though it feels like I'm just dragging out the inevitable for a few months. Maybe we should agree on a new set of prompts to get around the robot issue.

> In retrospect, I think that your side of the bet is too lenient in only requiring one of the images to fulfill the prompt. I'm happy to leave that part standing as-is, of course, though I've learned the lesson to be more careful about operationalization. Overall, these images shift my priors a fair amount, but aren't enough to change my fundamental view.

Scott putting "I Won" in the headline when it's not resolved yet seems somewhat dishonest, or more charitably wishful thinking.

[1] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai...