Senators introduce bill to thin out the 900k pieces of orbiting junk
commerce.senate.gov
commerce.senate.gov
Flight volume is an easily solved problem with the near future market, and that cost is the main reason junk isn't deorbited already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive#The_origina...
To be clear, I'm not saying OP is wrong, it would probably work out fine. But this seems like a fun angle to consider.
> You can just put the same price on debris addition.
Indeed. A small tax that matches the cost of debris capture payment + minor administrative overhead would encourage the outcome that junk isn't thrown into unrecoverable orbit.
I can't even find their account https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=xboneslife
Wonder what happened...
I went to reply to the user, then got a "comment deleted" error. First time I've seen that on HN.
If that fee is the entire estimated near-term cost to recover the object, it would also create incentives for entities putting large amounts of mass in orbit to focus on improved strategies for removal: if removal becomes lower cost than the fee, it's worth paying someone to recover your debris if a satellite fails in order to recover the fee.
The govt can include the cleanup cost as part of the launch licensing cost.
It also created an insane amount of junk in a high orbit that won't deorbit any time soon.
Want to work with USA companies? Great, pay your fines and you can.
Making sovereigns pay for trashing the commons is tricky for obvious reasons. But we don't have those problems with corporations.
I don't think it's a bad idea to be proactive about space cleanup, rather than reactive.
And if you can get them to agree to pay, who is a suitable body that they can be convinced to pay it _to_ ? I'm pretty sure that any arm of the US government, or US parastatal body, would not be acceptable. It's an international governance problem.
1) https://www.space.com/3415-china-anti-satellite-test-worriso...
Seize assets of nation-state entities (or entities controlled by the Chinese state) like airplanes and ships or bank funds, release them after payment.
[1] https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article13485097/Boeing-von-Th...
How did you come to this conclusion? Not that I know much about it, but I'm skeptical we can actually do orbital debris removal at a scale that meets the scale of the problem. AFAIK proof od concept demonstrations so far have been rather feeble. Seems hard.
What is really hard is making it cheap, light and versatile thing.
Let's focus on the more problematic, larger objects first, that are at risk of creating much more debris if hit.
Since everything is moving at orbital speeds, and generally at an angle to each other, i understood even small fragments move at a few km/sec relative to what they hit, so don't need to be particularly large.
I think what the government should do is invest in better tracking primarily. Then make a stronger law requiring sat makers to have a plan to remove debris also on failure.
Then they can clean up their own old junk and put a price on that.
If you make them put up insurance or a bond, it's a massive cash cost to have a $1B bond for 50 years...
And you would be needing $1B or more, because the worse case is a satellite gets smashed into 100,000 pieces, and you're going to need a lot of debris collection missions to get rid of them all...
You bond for the average cost and then use liability for edge cases. We don’t require every consumer product to be bonded for the edge case that it’s cancerous.
We regulate the heck out of launches; why not require orbital devices to have a built in deorbit mechanism (or “move to a parking orbit mechanism” for non-LEO), and/or require posting a bond to pay for someone to go clean up your mess?
They already do most of this for US and space partners, but it also adds significantly to weight to do it for every single small piece and parts naturally fall off.
Most space junk is not a full device, but debris from one, which is much harder to clean up and impossible to completely prevent.
This is also why there is an occasional international incident when a country decides to test out its ability to destroy sattalite.
For what it's worth, it actually kind of worked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetes#Themes
I'd say it is something of a response to doe-eyed futurism over space exploration that was so prevalent in the 80's and 90's
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
""" The Kessler syndrome (also called the Kessler effect,[1][2] collisional cascading, or ablation cascade), proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) due to space pollution is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade in which each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions.[3] In 2009 Kessler wrote that modeling results had concluded that the debris environment was already unstable, "such that any attempt to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating sources of past debris will likely fail because fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them".[4] One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations.[3] """ -- Summary from Wikipedia's article.
Also from that article "One technology proposed to help deal with fragments from 1 to 10 cm (1⁄2 to 4 in) in size is the laser broom, a proposed multimegawatt land-based laser that could deorbit debris: the side of the debris hit by the laser would ablate and create a thrust that would change the eccentricity of the remains of the fragment until it would re-enter and be destroyed harmlessly.[32]"
A thought likely independently re-invented by anyone (myself included) who's seen science fiction where solar sail mirrors are used as parabolic solar reflectors often used by super villains.
That's called Kessler Syndrome, but it's not as bad as you portray. It doesn't mean we'll never be able to launch anything any more; it just means we won't be able to launch anything for a few centuries or so. All orbital debris will eventually fall into the atmosphere and burn up, so we just have to wait.
However people get twitchy when you call it like this, nevertheless DARPA will probably happily found your Startup.
Lasers are a good avenue of approach, tracking and targeting can be provided by government agencies.
DLR has/had a project for this.
https://www.dlr.de/tp/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-10062/171...
cue Tears for Fears
Launch cost is ~$3,000 to $5,000 per kg
What's the value of pulling it back down and what drives this value?
In that case evaporating it completely would be a better option, as a gas it's harmless
On the contrary, this seems reasonable. It (correctly) identifies that deorbiting intact satellites before they fragment is overwhelmingly the cost-optimal strategy.
In the long-run, it's really total mass in a given orbit that's the dominant variable which separates runaway Kessler syndrome from stability. Therefore, a per-kilogram "bounty" (with a sliding scale depending on orbit) wouldn't be a bad incentive model.
Don't pick winners, let the market decide™.
1) Debris is dangerous to orbiting objects. So the value of bringing it down is more valuable than the per kilogram value. It is highly dependent upon potential damage it can do. Space debris is already causing damage to satellites and the ISS. As we place more objects in space this danger increase super-linearly.
2) If you can decommission debris you can decommission satellites. This has obvious military applications. In fact to properly do this you actually have to get pretty close to other satellites without colliding. By solving the debris problem you're solving a lot of the same problems you need for these military applications.
So both incentives are valued far greater than the per-mass value of the trash.
I'm not sure that's entirely true. Having a collector satellite match orbit with the debris and grab is one way to get rid of it, but I suspect in most cases it's good enough to just position a satellite with, say, a big steel plate in a path that intersects the debris' path and deflect it at the right angle so it returns to Earth. (If you're really clever you might use the impacts to deflect the interceptor satellite into roughly the right orbit to intercept the next piece of debris.)
There might also be ways to "catch" debris with moderately high relative velocity with the collector satellite. I imagine there's limits to the size of thing you can capture that way and the maximum relative velocity if you want to be pretty sure you can catch it without creating more debris.
Maybe the least sophisticated way to deorbit debris would be to just have an object with relatively low mass but very high surface area (e.g. an artificial "asteroid" made of aerogel) in an orbit that gives it the greatest probability of hitting any average piece of space junk, and then you wait for things to hit it by chance. The things that hit it lose momentum and hopefully fall back to Earth.
An estimate is made for the total cost of clearing significant space junk.
Space companies pay a fee per launch. Amount gets pooled.
Pool pays for it estimated total cost.
But no .... no one wants to pay for their sh!t ... just like here on Earth.
Also, deorbiting a sat at end of life is one thing, but deorbiting debris from an accidental collision (or an intentional one, just not intended by the sat's owner!) is a completely different thing. Companies do plan for end of life sat deorbiting, but it's hard to ask them to plan for unintentional collision debris deorbiting.
Paying for debris cleanup could be a thing that new sat deployment could be required to have covered, but without first knowing the cost of debris cleanup, it's hard to charge enough. Debris cleanup has never been done, so we don't know the cost of it! Also, if the government were the escrow agent, you know the money would just be spent, so the escrow would have to be a private entity.
Lastly, a lot of debris in orbit is due to anti-sat missile testing by nation states, so you're really asking them to clean up their debris.
But ranting is more fun?
I think the point is that it was always a concern. It's never not been a problem to leave your trash for someone else to clean up. A person standing in a pristine forest is still wrong to throw their trash on the ground and walk away even though it doesn't immediately turn the forest into a toxic cleanup site, and it would be hard for the litterbug to guess at the costs of paying someone to go into the forest to clean up that mess in the future.
It was never acceptable for companies to throw their junk into orbit without having a plan in place to remove it, they just did it anyway because no one was willing to force them to be responsible.
Now we've reached a point where it's time to start forcing people to be responsible for their trash, but that doesn't mean the people who have been littering and brought us to this point were not wrong to do it or that it wasn't wrong for our world's governments to allow it to happen. It was wrong. We knew better, people have been warning us about the possible dangers since at least the 80s and NORAD has been keeping track of space junk since the 1950s!
I think it's perfectly reasonable to point out that, once again, we failed to hold governments and corporations accountable for trashing the environment and now it's predictably come back to bite us collectively in the ass, yet there's not been much talk about making those directly responsible for the mess pay for what they've done and companies today are continuing to act as they always have done.
It would not be reasonable to require an 1970s satellite launch to be able to clear out the debris if the satellite exploded after a collision, because that's something we aren't able to do even now, 50 years later (note that the proposal is for 'thinning out', not clearing it). So obviously it was acceptable for companies to throw their junk without having a plan in to place to remove the debris after an accident - they are required to have a plan to deorbit after a normal operation, since that is actually a reasonably practical requirement.
Stating that this is unacceptable would mean that essentially no satellite launches would happen, and so the society chose to explicitly accept launches without a responsibility for clearing out the debris.
Companies are required to have plans for save disposal. The problem is currently if you have a total failure, you are not required to pay for removal. This could be added as a law and then it would just be part of the insurance package.
Also, most actual space junk in LEO are government sats or parts of rockets that launched government sats.
Commercial stuff is mostly in GEO and there you also have a disposal problem but its quite a different problem then LEO.
> Space companies pay a fee per launch. Amount gets pooled.
This seems to be a very bad approach. Amount of launch does not have much to do with how much debris exists.
I'm just saying. Sure, current launches are not responsible, but pay to play, man. And I don't mean make launching unprofitable, but play your part.
Commercialize the clean up. I don't know, NASA drafts a contract that soace players bid for, funded by launches. I dont know, but just do it.
The same bullshit as carbon credits: we make up a number, make companies pay it, and feel good about ourselves.
So, we can verifiably determine whether the money has done its job or not.
Or shall we do nothing?
Your comparing two completely different issus.
And ofc having a cleaner leo is also a good thing on itself ofc
Can junk just be kinetically shoved into a low failing orbit at low expense/effort/energy like a cue ball in pool?
If it were sufficiently dense to fish, it'd be worth more to collect and keep it in orbit — that junk has a lot of high-grade materials and a lot of already-imparted momentum. Just[] move it all into a few large objects that can be managed as large craft, and the debris problem is solved, and there's a mineable resource already in orbit.
[] "Just" is doing some escape-velocity-class lifting there — all that junk is in such massively different orbital planes and altitudes that silly amounts of ΔV are needed to fetch each one and then to pull it back to dock with the new orbital junkheap.
Its also far easier to recycle and salvage than refining raw ore.
I suppose the real comparison is [cost of refining material in orbit] - [cost of collecting on orbit (which must be done anyway)] vs [cost of refining it on the surface + launching it into orbit].
Say China decides to flood a particular orbit path that a US company was planning on using and went through all the approvals for.
Is the China stuff now "dangerous debris"?
It depends on who you are, who you're messing with, who your friends and their friends are, whether they stand to lose face or can pretend they didn't notice it, etc. The US once tried to steal the wreck of an entire Soviet nuclear-armed submarine off the bottom of the ocean (and mostly failed.) The Soviet response was a request to stop talking about it, because it wasn't worth a war and Soviet leadership didn't want to explain the incident to their own public.
Anyway, China is already toying around with the first sort, and they didn't ask anybody for permission. Their 'authority' to do it is being a sovereign nation.
It's establishing (assuming it gets passed and signed) the work for a demonstration program on active debris removal from orbit. It's not imposing the US government's will on anyone else.
It's very similar to the issue of extracting CO2 from the air - once it's in the air, you first have to add the energy of entropy to un-diffuse it and then you need collect it. That entropic energy is ENORMOUS. And you can easily generate more CO2 to create the energy to overcome it than you are extracting because most energy generation is still fossil-fuel sourced.
There's a very similar entropy problem with space junk. The energy requires is far higher.
The Kessler syndrome (also called the Kessler effect,[1][2] collisional cascading, or ablation cascade), proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) due to space pollution is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade in which each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions.[3] In 2009 Kessler wrote that modeling results had concluded that the debris environment was already unstable, "such that any attempt to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating sources of past debris will likely fail because fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them".[4] One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations.[3]
Study the issue, publish debris catalog, fund pilot programs to deorbit debris, encourage agencies and other countries to develop standards about debris...
Everything except "generate less debris".
> Everything except "generate less debris".
What else would the standards be about?
Good news! Concurrent efforts can work concurrently! Reducing future debris is already an area of active work.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32793236 <- Posted two days ago.
More stringent deorbiting standards and better methods for satellites to commit sudoku will reduce the amount of satellites that become debris.
But that doesn't change the fact that the majority of debris in orbit today comes from 2 sources: the Chinese ASAT test and leaky Soviet nuclear reactors. The proposed ASAT test ban helps that from being an issue, but you still need a way to clean up the existing debris (other than waiting decades or centuries)
e: Paper here, https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.27...
Government problem-solving rule #1: Any 5-year-old can recite "my government will solve..." slogans. Actually doing stuff requires that you actually control the government.