Denmark not offering second Covid booster shot to healthy adults under 50
sst.dk
sst.dk
Danish health authorities still recommend everyone to get vaccinated against COVID, including healthy people under 50. Everyone should get two jabs, everyone over 18 should get a third "booster" shot.
The vaccine talked about in the OP are the fourth vaccine jab, i.e. second booster shot, which is only offered to above-50 and people with certain heath issues.
> Why are people aged under 50 not to be re-vaccinated?
> The purpose of the vaccination programme is to prevent severe illness, hospitalisation and death. Therefore, people at the highest risk of becoming severely ill will be offered booster vaccination. The purpose of vaccination is not to prevent infection with covid-19, and people aged under 50 are therefore currently not being offered booster vaccination.
> People aged under 50 are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19. In addition, younger people aged under 50 are well protected against becoming severely ill from covid-19, as a very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected with covid-19, and there is consequently good immunity among this part of the population.
> It is important that the population also remembers the guidance on how to prevent the spread of infection, including staying at home in case of illness, frequent aeration or ventilation, social distancing, good coughing etiquette, hand hygiene and cleaning.
This reads like obvious flip flopping that's a primarily economic decision.
Denmark also doesn't offer free influenza vaccinations to all adults. https://www.sst.dk/en/English/News/2022/Autumn-vaccinations-...
> We recommend influenza vaccination for everyone aged 65 and over as well as for persons with certain chronic diseases, children aged between 2 and 6, pregnant women in the second and third trimesters and staff in the healthcare and elderly care sector and selected parts of the social services sector.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varicella_vaccine points out "Not all countries provide the [chickenpox] vaccine due to its cost."
If you are young with 3 shots you have relative good chances against covid. Right now there are 6 people with covid in a intensive care unit and 0 on respirator in all of Denmark.
It's honestly not economical to keep up the high level of testing and vaccination, not if most don't really get that sick. People are also a lot better at staying home when sick, compared to earlier.
It’s a very good precedent. It wasn’t supposed to be an ongoing thing. The risk benefit just isn’t there except maybe for the most comorbid.
Submitted title was "Denmark no longer offering Covid vaccinations to healthy adults under 50". That title was highly editorialized, which breaks the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize."
Editing a title to make it more misleading (and linkbait for that matter) manages to break all 4 things that that guideline asks submitters not to do. We eventually remove submission privileges from accounts that do that, so please don't.
If you want to say what you think is important about an article, that's fine, but do it by adding a comment to the thread. Then your view will be on a level playing field with everyone else's: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...
Who will be offered vaccination against covid-19?
People aged 50 years and over will be offered vaccination.
People aged under 50 who are at a higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19 will also be offered vaccination against covid-19.
It doesn’t say people under 50 who have had 2 or fewer shots.
The comment you responded to seems to be a partial if not total fabrication.
I don’t see indication of any sort of “roll over eligibility”.
And I don’t think the official recommendation would be 2 shots for everyone since the linked page clearly states it is no longer offered for under 18s, and Søren Brostrøm, director of the health authority, saying it was a mistake to give it to any under 18s, and if you read between the lines and look at the data it was probably a mistake to give it to any under 50s.
The extent to which people seem to have given up independent thinking around this issue seems troubling.
Read between the lines because unfortunately it is highly unlikely to see politicians and public health authorities say this so bluntly when they were the ones just recently pushing these, on net deleterious shots. A sensitive issue and political minefield to say the least.
Why should people get the original shot if they haven’t already? It clearly doesn’t work, it clearly has potential for very negative side effects, and even if it did work it is designed for the original strain, which isn’t around anymore. Makes no sense…
I meant read between the lines for your own well being and that of others to see the writing on the wall of what is going on here, not as a principle for the HN style guide.
>cites population wide adherence
That is just face-saving.
“Re-vaccination” is offered not required. It has nothing to with previous widespread injections. That had if anything negative overall effect.
More people have died from the virus after the shots than before. The shots were supposed to stop contraction of the virus, let alone dying from it.
I know it’s sucks to think about, cognitive dissonance inducing even, especially if you were gung-ho on the injection bandwagon just a year ago, but let’s face facts.
Vaccines including first booster is still offered and recommended for everyone above 18.
Second booster (i.e. fourth jab) only offered to people above 50.
Source: https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/Vaccination
Google translate: https://www-sst-dk.translate.goog/da/corona/Vaccination?_x_t...
Quote:
> 10. Do you still recommend that one take the 1st, 2nd and 3rd shots against covid-19 if one has not yet been vaccinated?
> The Danish Health Authority continues to recommend that persons who have not been vaccinated be vaccinated with the 1st and 2nd shots. This also applies even if they are younger than 50, as there may be a certain risk of serious illness if you are not vaccinated.
"Denmark no longer offering second Covid booster shot..." suggest that Denmark have at one point offered the second booster to below-50 and have now stopped.
This is not the case.
Until now, the second booster have only been offered to a smaller group of very old or very vulnerable individuals. Now Denmark is rolling out larger scale vaccinations, offering the second booster to everyone over 50.
> assuming your comment is accurate—I haven't dug through the article
The article is somewhat unclear since it just assumes everyone already has the three jabs. The "autumn vaccination programme" is the second booster. A better source to the official policy is the page in Danish:
https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/Vaccination
Google translate to English: https://www-sst-dk.translate.goog/da/corona/Vaccination?_x_t...
Key quote:
> 10. Do you still recommend that one take the 1st, 2nd and 3rd shots against covid-19 if one has not yet been vaccinated?
> The Danish Health Authority continues to recommend that persons who have not been vaccinated be vaccinated with the 1st and 2nd shots. This also applies even if they are younger than 50, as there may be a certain risk of serious illness if you are not vaccinated.
That is not true. You just made that up didn’t you?
What is compelling you to spread misinformation?
It says this right on the linked page:
Vaccination of children against covid-19 Children and adolescents rarely become severely ill from the Omicron variant of covid-19.
From 1 July 2022, it was no longer possible for children and adolescents aged under 18 to get the first injection and, from 1 September 2022, it was no longer possible for them to get the second injection.
A very limited number of children at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill will still be offered vaccination based on an individual assessment by a doctor.
So, no it is not recommended, because it is not even an option.
Does this sound like someone who would recommend what you said he would?
The director-general of Denmark’s Health Authority said that in retrospect injecting children with the Covid vaccine was a mistake.
Søren Brostrøm said while hosting “Go Evening Live” on TV 2: “In hindsight, we did not get much out of vaccinating the children. I want to look all parents of children who have vaccinated their child in the eye and say, ‘You did the right thing, and thank you for listening,’ ”
“But at the same time… and this is the important thing to maintain confidence… I will admit and say that we have become wiser and we would not do the same today. And we will not do that in the future either,” he added. Christine Stabell Benn, clinical professor at the University of Southern Denmark, has long been critical of the vaccination of children. She told TV 2 that she had no doubt that the recommendation to give the Covid vaccine to the age group 12-15 was unnecessary.
“We had some vaccines with a very unknown side effect profile, and at the same time we had some children who had nothing to gain by being vaccinated,” Stabell Benn told TV 2.
https://www.worldtribune.com/was-vaccinating-children-a-mist...
> What is compelling you to spread misinformation?
My source is https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/Vaccination point 10
Vaccines (two shots + one booster shot) is recommended for everyone over 18.
A second booster (i.e. a fourth shot) is currently only offered for over 50, except for certain conditions.
Now, influenza kills lots of people; in 2018 over 60,000 people were killed by influenza in the USA alone. But we don't have border closing or "show your papers" or all the rest for influenza, and we're not going to.
Now wait a second … that's not a bad idea!
COVID deaths in the U.S. over a two year period amounted to over 1 million.
Also, in my country, a lot of people got Omicron - and I mean a lot - realised it didn’t do much and pretty much stoped worrying.
Case numbers and deaths seem to be plateauing at a pretty low rate, especially considering the relaxed restrictions these numbers are occurring under. It seems reasonable to think that we won't suddenly see a more dangerous strain of this particular virus, or that vaccines will lose a significant amount of effectiveness.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
It still (just barely) shows part of the 2018 influenza spike, which is pretty similar to where we were at in July (note that the last few weeks on this chart are likely to come up a bit, but from what I've seen they don't rise much once they're 2-3 weeks old).
Now it's always possible that the winter will be just like 2020/21 and 2021/22 winters, in terms of deaths, but I highly doubt it. Anyone who has not either been infected or vaccinated (or both) by now, is almost certainly naturally resistant. There isn't much of an "immunologically naive" population left.
Where we are now is analogous to influenza in 1920, just after the big flupandemic of 1918/19.
Look up how many deaths occurred in the 2-year 1918-1919 period.
It's remarkable how few people died from flu the last 2 years. I know people were (probably still are) being tested for COVID when visiting the hospital. Do we test for flu?
I also feel COVID deaths are overblown, should probably be much lower in these graphs (many people that died /with/ COVID have been marked as dying /from/ COVID).
We know it isn't accurate because we know that large numbers were merely covid positive when they died (often using an inaccurate testing method)
Providing perverse funding incentives to hospitals distorts the data
Do you have any idea how the calculations are performed to arrive at that number?
I suggest you take some time to investigate. When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized
Excess deaths doesn't care what your cause of death was, it just compares deaths in period X to deaths in previous periods.
> When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized
Yeah, it was very sad to see the Republicans and Trump in particular pursue that course of action.
The population is growing and hence the number dying is also growing. The way you handle the data to determine what is considered 'excess' changes the value.
Actuarial science has been used to make that determination in more recent studies. Those studies suggest that the 'excess' number used by politicians and in news media is not accurate.
Actuarial science used by insurance companies now shows historic changes in occurrence of deaths, over this period of time, that are not caused by SarsCoV2.
Again, I suggest you investigate where the information comes from that you consider to support you base assumptions.
Except for when we do shut things down.
It's far from without precedent for the government to mandate personal safety requirements, tho. Seatbelt laws for cars are near universal in the US and that's a much more only-effects-you decision compared to vaccination.
Also, seatbelts are removable which people would say makes that comparison irrelevant.
We do have "show your papers" for influenza. For example: https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-8-part-b-chapter-...
That's weird.
So no.
You are comparing number of deaths as opposed to rate of death per infection. The number of COVID infections are orders of magnitude higher than the number of flu infections. The rate of death from COVID per infection is now lower than the flu.
https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e7-4dec-a796-3e25e94bc...
Unless long COVID turns out to be a real and serious thing...
It is not real insofar one assumes COVID is special or particularly more dangerous in this regard. It isn’t, except for temporary loss of smell and reduced aerobic capacity.
Also see https://kirkegaard.substack.com/p/how-unreal-is-long-covid
The posters on https://www.reddit.com/r/covidlonghaulers/ would disagree with you
Echo chamber, filter bubble, etc etc
/cue accidental rap battle
Well obviously; that's a tautology. The question is how it actually differs per epidemiology.
The only difference is that Covid caused the number of viral infections to skyrocket, and with that, we see a corresponding jump in the occurrence of post-viral autoimmune disregulation, so now there's more effort being spent on finding out what's really going on.
Just because you feel back to normal after getting over an illness it doesn't mean there isn't a permanent hit taken in terms of future repair & recovery capacity.
I suppose the argument is that Covid-19 causes more long term damage in many people when compared to other similar illnesses? That's interesting, but part of me wonders if this is just a false flag due to how much research there is going into covid.
Why would you even think that it's a false flag? I'm lost as to your logical progression.
It's not like it was ever ok that the flu killed tens of thousands of people every year in the US alone. It's just not a thing that is going to be going away, so the tradeoff of temporarily staying home or wearing masks or etc. is different than if you think it will be gone in a few months.
So to eliminate influenza we just need to destroy the economy, restrict travel, force people to pay $1000s in quarantine, cover our faces and close schools and office. And ignore all the negative consequences of that. Got it.
Your comment "almost vanished because we started using hand sanitizer and facemasks." is false. It was much more than that.
EDIT: and your links prove a reduction in influenza, yes, not "taught us that we don't need to accept so many deaths by influenza". That's a much wider debate and involves much more than scientific studies
I am also sorry that you don't like the “we don't need to accept”. I merely meant that we should have learned by now that we can avoid lots of influenza infections by very simple means, of which improved hand hygiene is probably the most important (I don't have time to look for links, so feel free to ignore the claim).
Denmark has no COVID-19 restrictions, but we do have extensive influenza sentinel surveillance, so we will see how it goes in the upcoming influenza season.
Instead we are looking at plentiful deaths and accumulating damage courtesy of even mild infections. We aren't actually going back.
For me, the only thing I care about is if I need to wear a mask and if I need to have a vaccination to do things. If I need to have a vaccination pass to do things then I don't think we should be getting charged for getting it. And I just hate wearing masks.
That's what we're hoping for - and it's generally the trajectory novel viruses take - come out of the gates with a bang and a whallop into a vulnerable population, eventually tone down as people build immunity and selective pressures favour mutations that don't dramatically and fearfully kill their victims.
> But we don't have border closing or "show your papers" or all the rest for influenza
We very much did when H1N1 killed millions from 1918 to 1920. Closing the borders, lockdowns, quarantines etc. Not so much "show your proof of vaccination" due to well, you know, there not being a vaccine for influenza then.
However, you might find this illuminating - a 1905 Supreme Court decision upholding the authority of states to enforce compulsory vaccination laws. [0]
> and we're not going to.
If a novel strain of influenza were to emerge that current vaccines can't handle, and it was proving to be highly efficient at causing severe illness or death, you really don't think similar preventive measures would be taken?
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts
Comments about "show your papers" are bullshit. We had an opportunity to prevent this from becoming a pandemic, and once it became a pandemic we could've worked together to limit spread and protect one another. Instead we had a large chunk of society that decided letting COVID burn through millions of victims was preferable to wearing a mask or not having parties.
--
CDC says the 2018-2019 Flu season killed about 28K people, hospitalized 375K people. The vast majority of those were in the 65+ age group. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html) The 2017-2018 season estimate was 61K, the 2019-2020 estimate was 22K, prior years from 2010 through 2017 were as high as 51,000 and as low as 12,000.
The U.S. is averaging 400-500 deaths from COVID per day. If you split the difference and call it 450, that's more than 160,000 per year. Note that COVID numbers are probably shaky given that we have states like Florida trying to block reporting, and inaccuracies in reporting since COVID deaths may be misreported (e.g. someone recently "recovered" from COVID dies of stroke or heart attack that may be linked to COVID but the person isn't tested for COVID or isn't currently testing positive but the death is likely a result of COVID).
So, our averages are far higher than Flu and that doesn't even take into account deaths we aren't counting as COVID. The excess deaths reported from March 2020 - March 2022 were 15% higher than reported COVID deaths.
We also have no evidence of "long-flu" the way we're seeing complications of COVID infections long past the initial sickness.
And we don't yet know if we've reached a plateau or if we have more mutations/waves in front of us that will spike numbers. Or, maybe we are seeing the tail end and we'll stay at current numbers or decline further.
Several experts are predicting a fall surge - which may or may not happen, and may or may not be severe. Like Flu, yes, many people now have some exposure and/or have been vaccinated -- so COVID is less "novel" and may keep declining in severity, but given lax attitudes towards masking and vaccinations/boosters and other precautions, we'll see more sickness and death than we need to.
Anecdotally: Between March 2020 and March 2022 I knew maybe two people in my immediate circle of friends and family (about 30 people) who tested positive for COVID, and two who likely had COVID but didn't get a positive test. The two likely cases were prior to vaccine availability and one of the couple works in health care and had no real way to isolate and avoid exposures. Happily, none of them died or were hospitalized.
Since March of this year my immediate family (4 people) and my wife's brother & his wife (who's pregnant and being super-cautious) are the only people I know who haven't tested positive for COVID at least once. Most of my co-workers have had it. While, again, no one has required hospitalization or has died, the reported symptoms & after-effects often are higher in severity with a case of the flu. We're talking weeks long "brain fog" and loss of smell/taste, shortness of breath, and so forth in several cases. (To be fair, some cases have been mild - usually spouse or children of someone who's been sicker, but tested positive after exposure.)
In terms of mortality, the boosters have a significant effect for the elderly. For younger people without serious risk factors the immunity seems to keep longer and mortality is very low after only two or three vaccinations.
It does clearly say that for <18, primary series vaccines stopped in July of this year. So it doesn't seem out of the question that they would stop them for adults too. My guess is that the relatively few people people there who never got one and now changed their minds could still get one from a doctor, but will not be target by whatever clinics they are using for fall re-vaccinations.
Source: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2022-09-08/asi-sera-la-cuarta-do...
"The purpose of the vaccination programme is to prevent severe illness, hospitalisation and death. Therefore, people at the highest risk of becoming severely ill will be offered booster vaccination. The purpose of vaccination is not to prevent infection with covid-19, and people aged under 50 are therefore currently not being offered booster vaccination.
People aged under 50 are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19. In addition, younger people aged under 50 are well protected against becoming severely ill from covid-19, as a very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected with covid-19, and there is consequently good immunity among this part of the population."
Please say one in a million, because the fatality rate for Covid for young healthy folks with no comorbidities is extremely low.
Such a travesty that people were mandating vaccines with known adverse events for people at such a low, dare I say, negligible amount of risk.
They "proved" that mRNA don't prevent deaths at all https://brownstone.org/articles/have-people-been-given-the-w...
and are linked to the Great Barrington Declaration https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/9560...
Yeah. It's insane if they prohibit under-50s from getting the vaccine. There are more reasons to get vaccinated than just self-protection: pretty much the only reason I get boosted is to lower my risk of infection to prevent passing it to an immunocompromised parent.
With medical questions there's not much middle ground. Either a treatment is indicated or not.
Doctors may disagree about individual cases of disease, they don't disagree at all about who to vaccinate, they follow guidelines.
Broad consensus based on the merits > Internal disagreement > broad consensus based on "guidelines".
And yes the scientific position will evolve as new variants and herd immunity become common place.
> Vaccination is offered to all children from 12 years of age since COVID-19 can cause serious illness also in children. The vaccine used in Sweden, Comirnaty, is approved for use from 12 years of age. It provides a high level of protection against serious illness.
> Several EU countries are vaccinating children aged 12–15 years, including Denmark, Finland and Norway. So far, almost 20 million children worldwide have received vaccines. This means that the knowledge on vaccination of children against COVID-19 is much greater today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Week_in_Virology
The hosts and guests both openly and candidly talk about some of the disagreements they have with the prevailing public health guidelines while at the same time give so much detail and depth into virology and immunology so as to show how full of shit the big anti-vax misinformation peddlers are.
So many anti-vaxxers say you can't have any disagreements with the party line or you get cancelled and then these prominent experts at the top of their fields do it every week on TWiV and don't get cancelled (because they aren't full of shit).
(That's an everyday speech 'imply', not a mathematical 'imply'; where of course the existence of sets containing x says nothing about the existence of sets not containing x.)
actual facts
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/covid-deaths-in-israel-h...
look at that chart and then recall the absolutely mad state so many people went into Summer 2021
"time to blame the 'unvaccinated'"
"time to inject them against their will"
"time to violate their basic human rights"
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/i-know-what-you-did-last...
maybe, just maybe, the "unvaccinated" were able to see something you weren't and chose the better path
Even if they did work, the profile of who was at risk was clear, it wasn’t healthy young people. So why was it pushed on healthy young people?
From the outset the risk reward ratio was not clear for those without high comorbidites, the minute the myocarditis signal showed up it should have been pulled for most people.
Bearing in mind we now know myocarditis is just one of a multitude of negative side effects.
So why did it go on being pushed and coerced to healthy people, actively harming them?
How is that selfish?
> If you would like to be selfish, you should do it in a very intelligent way. The stupid way to be selfish is … seeking happiness for ourselves alone. … the intelligent way to be selfish is to work for the welfare of others.” - Dalai Lama
Specific individual rights can and do trump collective rights, but this is a conversation we have to have as a society. For instance, if I am down range, my individual right trumps everyone’s right to fire a gun down that range. It’s the flip side of the same coin. Positive freedoms are zero sum with negative freedoms. Realizing that is step one to having a productive conversation about these things.
Once we get past that fact, by realizing that it is zero sum, and your individual right takes away some collective right (and vice versa) we can look at specific instances and debate those. But when the conversation begins with “you’re taking away my rights”, the rest of the conversation is guaranteed to be unproductive, because, depending on your perspective, both outcomes take away someone’s rights.
I agree, though:
a) I didn't make that claim
b) You may as well just say "one right does not always trump another", which is just as true and more insightful
Which makes this part:
> This lack of nuance in your argument is absurd.
actually absurd. And this part:
> The selfish part is suggesting that your individual rights trump everyone else’s rights.
as I've already pointed out, is not something I claimed. This was my claim:
“To protect or support one individual's rights is to protect or support everyone's individual rights."
Perhaps you'd like to try again, and this time actually address me with some respect, not least by actually replying to what was written and not what is most convenient to you in the fantasy argument you've spilled out from your head.
Yay for facts, and not emotions! For the obtuse: the last sentence was sarcastic.
Give me a long detailed scientific paper and then maybe it's worth considering.
The shots were sold as “If you get this shot you won’t get the virus” but apparently people still are getting the virus. And not just getting the virus, but dying from it. And dying from it in greater numbers than before the shots! WTF is up with that?!
Clearly the shots don’t work as they were supposed to.
And they are killing people. Excess deaths are way up in mRNA injected countries.
And they are preventing people from being born. Birth rates are way down in mRNA injected countries.
Not good.
From 1 screenshot graph! Is that all the data you need to draw your conclusions? Is the graph even real, or is a graph from a random blog good enough because it supports your viewpoint? (Let's be honest, "both sides" have this deficiency; "This PNG supports my viewpoint, I'm right!"). Let's see the vax rates (to me the page is trying to trick people by presenting "Over 95% are vaccinated" but that's for people over the age 50. Let's see the rate of "returning to normal" and partying and mingling by people who think since they were vaxxed 6 months ago they were safe.
> And they are preventing people from being born. Birth rates are way down in mRNA injected countries.
Oooh... it must be the vaccine! How about the fact that there's been economic instability since the pandemic? Nah: mRNA introduced, birth rates down, must be mRNA!
Look, birth rates have been down since 2007, oh, must be Bill Gates' time machine: https://www.aei.org/economics/the-reasons-for-americas-birth...
Sorry if you're insulted, but geez, either this comment slaps some sense into you (here I am fighting against a windmill) that you're an idjit who needs to be more scientific about his way of thinking, or you're just going to reaffirm your beliefs, because it's more comforting to think that you have a clue and everyone else are the idjits[2]. A toast to that!
[1] Yeah TBH it's a foreign substance, I don't know what liquid they injected into me, at the end of the day I had my faith in the scientists making and checking the vaccine, just like we all put faith that the burger we're eating have been checked properly - by whoever is in charge for checking those things - for mad cow and other diseases.
[2] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont... - Yes, arguably your "facts" won't change the minds of "I have faith in the vax" people either...
It's Google's chart. Search for "covid", then select Israel from the country drop down.
The poster you replied to is asserting that this chart should look much better by now, given the promises made when the vaccine when it was introduced. I don't see why you need "a long detailed scientific paper" to agree or disagree with this.
We call it science the process/method, rather than science the religion.
> The hosts and guests both openly and candidly talk about some of the disagreements they have with the prevailing public health guidelines while at the same time give so much detail and depth into virology and immunology so as to show how full of shit the big anti-vax misinformation peddlers are.
I'll keep that in mind next time I am censored.
> So many anti-vaxxers say you can't have any disagreements with the party line or you get cancelled and then these prominent experts at the top of their fields do it every week on TWiV and don't get cancelled (because they aren't full of shit).
Profanity aside, it sounds like you are touting controlled opposition, or, Establishment figures critiquing establishment positions.
This line of debate leads nowhere other than a dead end where each side is convinced that the other is a spy. And considering your post history, I don't know if there's a reason to lend you much credence at all.
To any medical intevention there is risk. A chance of adverse events. A chance it won't work. Side effects. Your physician should make you aware of these potential issues, making you aware of them, before treating you. We call it informed consent.
The ethical angle is a little more complex. Considering above, but also, knowing the statistics around fatality rates of various conditions, and the adverse events that go along with the interventions. Some cases it means they should, or shouldn't be treated. Also, you have to consider a patient's personal beliefs, religion, etc. Running roughshod over patient beliefs is considered unethical.
Each person should make their own decisions based on knowing their health, and consulting with a competent medical professional that understands all of above. There are simple calculators that exist for fatality rates around covid depending on age, weight, mordibities, etc. Thank JHU.
Which I do, thanks mostly to my wife that is a dual board certified surgeon.
> This line of debate leads nowhere other than a dead end where each side is convinced that the other is a spy. And considering your post history, I don't know if there's a reason to lend you much credence at all
Either I am a liar, well-informed, or quite crazy. Take your pick. I'd just like to think that I married well
It's almost like most people can be reasonable if given the opportunity and proper information. People are also surprisingly good at picking up on BS, even if they then misattribute the source or reasoning.
When were you censored? I mean actually censored.
Bearing in mind that being ignored, or the owners of publishing systems choosing not to cooperate with you in propagating your opinions on platforms they own or operate, is editorialising and not censorship.
True experts' doubts just reinforce their positions instead of weakening them, IMO.
For the record, I have got 3 shots (2 Pfizer + 1 Moderna), and I don't regret it. But I respect people who chose differently because the unknowns about the vaccines.
Vaccines became broadly available in relatively wealthy countries in 2021 wherein the only reasonable position would have been that vaccination of all groups would decrease net mortality even among those unlikely to die and reduce damage to people's bodies that we were already seeing even with mild infections of otherwise healthy people.
A reasonable analysis of a complex topic with an unknown number of unknown factors is ultimately going to have at least some support among smart people for niche positions.
Going with what your emotions proves you are intellectually incapable.
Picking out one smart person with an articulate position that matches your emotional position proves you are an intellectually incapable person who thinks they are smart.
Picking out a niche position and searching for a handful of smart people who support it because it makes you feel smart to be a contrarian makes you intellectually incapable AND smug.
I respect people with the aptitude and the niche knowledge to break new intellectual ground even if they turned out to be wrong. I do not respect the 1000 idiots following that one fellow into the brush who ignored all the other smart people going the other way and neither should you.
It's not necessarily a reasonable position when the clinical trials themselves showed an unusually large rate of adverse events in vacinees vs the placebos: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X2.... The bad logic is the logic that it's okay to assess the efficiency of a novel therapeutic by the protection it provides against infection rather than by it's overall effect on excess mortality, as such an approach is going to miss any safety signals.
I think the high number of adverse events, and the weirdness around allergies, and my wife's colleague that was receiving a huge amount of pressure to get a 2nd shot, despite having a severe adverse event, has ruined it for me personally.
> Going with what your emotions proves you are intellectually incapable.
No emotions. The adverse events in any number of journals, and the VAERS reporting data, as passive surveillance which underreports signficantly, convinced me there were issues.
> I respect people with the aptitude and the niche knowledge to break new intellectual ground even if they turned out to be wrong. I do not respect the 1000 idiots following that one fellow into the brush who ignored all the other smart people going the other way and neither should you.
Please don't call anyone idiots here on HN. We read the articles, and the medical journals, and the pros and cons and came to an informed opinion, not including all the noise that was public pressure.
Having had covid, I can definitely say I am happy I did not get vaccinated. If you have a bunch of comorbidities or are old, or you want it just cause, go get it. But don't force those of us that are healthy, with no comorbidities that already did the social distancing to get some therapeutic with a shady safety record and likely negative efficacy. I don't believe we needed to rush these vaccines, or therapeutics, or whatever ineffective thing they are, out the door.
What is really tragic is when I hear about the infants with severe adverse events to these vaccines..........
Usually, in matters with very personal consequences, I don’t submit anyone’s position to the rigor of, say, a mathematical proof—irrationality is allowed. Most people refusing the vaccine have either died or survived multiple infections. I believe the individual has unquestionable sovereignty over such matter of life and death. Likewise the vaccinated dead, either from COVID infection or vaccine complication.
Overall, it’s really quite simple to understand that different people view this life thing differently and make trade-offs accordingly. It may not favor you, but calling the other sides names or applying a pretend touchstone of intellectualism is the height of intellectual laziness. Given that your position is also the position of the majority, I wonder at all if “intellectually incapable” should be used here. The majority is provably the intellectually incapable.
> Most people refusing the vaccine have either died or survived multiple infections.
Most people refusing to wear bulletproof vests into war zones have died or survived being shot at. This says nothing for the strategy whatsoever.
> I believe the individual has unquestionable sovereignty over such matter of life and death.
We were discussing whether there were reasonable antivaxxers who had arrived at their position through commendable means as opposed to ignorant folks who got their medical advice from facebook. People's right to refuse to participate in vaccination is an entirely different question.
> Likewise the vaccinated dead, either from COVID infection or vaccine complication.
It's easy to find millions of people killed by covid. Where can I find the number of people killed by the covid vaccine?
> Overall, it’s really quite simple to understand that different people view this life thing differently and make trade-offs accordingly.
Surely many things are very complicated with no clear answer. This doesn't appear to be one of them. Given the cardiovascular and lung damage apparent in even the majority of mild infections and the potentially progressive nature of repeated infection starting out vaccine naive seems to be a bad strategy for any age and one that could only have been arrived at by failing to attend to reality.
Its not intellectual laziness to attend to the body of work done by experts. It is what one does in fields in which one is not a subject matter expert. One acquires as much information as is available much of it surface level understanding and reads a variety of sources and what other sources say about those sources until you develop enough of an understanding do operate in the relevant space to the degree required to make decisions.
In this way one learns enough about automotive tech to select a good car, to drive it, and to keep it running between visits to the shop.It is entirely normal to do this without learning enough to rebuild the engine much less build or design one from scratch.
If one discovers someone else is commuting in an eastern European sedan of antique vintage which lacks seatbelts or airbags I will happily conclude without being an engineer that they are essentially "bad at picking cars" even if it comes to pass that they have what they believe is a very sophisticated understanding of engineering and can put their death trap together blindfolded.
It turns out that one doesn't need to be an engineer to read analysis that says that these two safety features are highly desirable and that they by choosing dangerous cars have chosen a notably bad strategy for not ending up a meat crayon.
> Given that your position is also the position of the majority, I wonder at all if “intellectually incapable” should be used here. The majority is provably the intellectually incapable.
Ya people are stupid but it doesn't follow that what the majority does is necessarily stupid because the majority does it ergo being a contrarian doesn't perforce make you clever either. Claims should be evaluated on their own merit.
The claim that vaccines are more dangerous than covid seems not only unfounded but unworthy.
You are oversimplying and again conflating both groups. You assume people made their mind first and then looked for experts' to support which it's not fair to a lot of them.
Let's focus on an specific case. A healthy 25 years old male living in on of those countries. If he's an skeptic and decides to make a data oriented decision, the truth is that his chance of dying or getting a severe infection was really slim and probably comparable to the odds of getting a myocarditis because of it.
Yet the media and the government, at least in my country, did not make any difference between his case and a 60 years old with hypertension. Everyone had to take their shot or be denied his right to go to a pub or restaurant.
One of the problems here, and the source of a lot of trouble it's that sending nuanced messages it's very hard and goverments feared that being cautious could affect negatively to vaccination rates. So they took the simplistic path of presenting the vaccines as a silver bullet for everyone (and they were but in a very varying degree).
I can understand that decision but at the same time, it has thrown a lot of fair "skeptics" under the bus.
IMO, your attitude is even more harmful than the typical vaccine conspiracy theories, because those are typically easily disproved!
But disguising a dogmatic attitude in the language of science is poisonous for discourse and misuses science itself.
Looking at the benefits and drawbacks of a new vaccine is the most normal thing in the world. And thanks to those that didn’t allow themselves to be bullied by misguided do-gooders is why we have a better understanding of the vaccines and doctors can explain to patients if the vaccine makes sense to them.
That's about the worst case of projection I've seen on HN. Just because that's your position is very far from it being the only reasonable position. There were plenty of sensible people calling for vaccination of the over 50s and other vulnerable classes at the time.
What about the people who were silenced about their negative vaccine reactions...[1]
orjournalists like Alex Berenson that were banned from twitter from talking about the data? The first journalist to win against twitter in court and get unbanned, ever [2]
[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-side...
[2] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/08/alex-...
He is the first journalist to take twitter to court and get unbanned, so he is in fact already a historical journalist, wether you agree with him or not.
>He is the first journalist to take twitter to court and get unbanned
The fact that he was a "journalist" had nothing to do either with the reason for banning him or why he was restored (he was restored solely because a twitter employee behaved like a moron).
On the one hand you say anti-vaxers are not cancelled but on the other hand you refer to them as full of shit. In spite of so many of their claims about the vaccine having been proven correct: it doesn't prevent transmission, it doesn't prevent severe covid or death, and for some age groups the risks outweigh the benefits: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070.
Anti vaxxers tend to not discuss nuanced details and instead come out with unsubstantiated claims like “vaccines cause autism” which is going to get most people to stop listening to them
Have you actually read any of the publications by prominent anti-vax scientists? For instance, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359989585_Innate_im... is hardly lacking in nuanced details or full of unsubstantiated claims, nor is https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog... .
This second link is even worse, it’s a blogpost with a a short paper riddled with citations linking to other blogposts from the same site making wild claims about how the vaccine actually makes things worse. I started on section 1 after his synopsis and he just points to a diagram included in his paper and then trots out the debunked anti vaxxer claim of
> vaccinees are now increasingly becoming asymptomatic shedders of SC-2.
There is no data or citation supporting that beyond his diagram. He just makes a claim and then starts making logical leaps off that claim.
This is the kind of “evidence” that makes everyone groan and roll their eyes when people claim that the anti vaxxers actually have proof and no one’s paying attention to them because it’s a conspiracy or doesn’t toe the party line. I am legitimately upset that I gave you the benefit of the doubt and wasted my time reading through these just to find out that your claims are as weakly supported as I had assumed.
[1]the sentence below, anti vaxxers commonly bring up lack of precedent as a reason the vaccines can’t possibly work
> The utilization of mRNA vaccines in the context of infectious disease has no precedent.
[2] > We show evidence from the VAERS database supporting our hypothesis.
Yes, it does…?
And rightfully so. Policies adapt to the currently prevailing COVID variant. A change of policy today is not a vindication for statements made months ago under different circumstances.
Also, if the one making the statement is not an expert themselves, they're typically cherry-picking statements of real experts to match their preoccupations, while the topic is in fact still under debate and the verdict can swing either way.
You know the only people more full of shit than the anti-vaxxers? The "trust the science" shills. The anti-vaxxers may have the wrong idea but from 2020 to...well about the last few months we saw that anyone who even remotely questioned the efficacy of vaccines was "anti-science" and a "science denier". Major platforms spent millions (billions?) to kill as much of this as they could despite the fact the "fact checkers" had no idea either. Fact checkers by-and-large are editorial writers on a power trip. I don't think anyone whose been awake at the wheel for the last 4 years is surprised at this. But they gained an entirely new level of unjustified power in 2020.
A few years later all of the sudden some of the "conspiracies" were at least shown to have some veracity: the vaccines aren't nearly as effective as advertised, the studies were rushed/manipulated, boosters are not effective, the lab leak hypothesis, etc.
Now, a real "science believer" would simply change their view at this point to match the reality of the situation. We spent two years pretending we have a full view of exactly what COVID is, what caused it, where it started, etc. The truth is we have no idea. The best scientists so far can't even agree on if a booster works or not (and by works I mean is effective along a wide population of varying demographics). People are seemingly religious bound to the "wear your mask, trust the science" non-sense. If anything, these people are just as bad as the people saying the vaccine is carrying nano-robots.
If you recall, in 2020 especially, the idea that the virus originated in the BSL lab in Wuhan was put into several papers. None of which can be found anymore (at least I cannot find them). These scientists were "canceled" immediately.
There's a lot of nonsense coming out of both sides. But to pretend it's simply "those pesky anti-vaxxers" as if none of them can rub a collective two brain cells together is frankly funny. I have a feeling the Pfizer documents once fully released and analyzed will be a treasure trove of hindenberg level disasters once the religious party-line fervor comes to an end.
more people have died since the shots, than before, come on bro! It's staring you in the face
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/all-you-need-to-know-abo...
What would you consider a worthy citation source, the same people who have lied or been wrong about everything to date?
No need for goofy phd words like “robust inferences”
Much more than 70% of the at risk population were injected, they are the ones that are dying. That shots were sold as stopping the virus entirely, “If you get this shot you won’t get the virus” let alone die from it!
So why have there been more deaths since the shots than before?!
The shots don’t work. Not only do they not work, they are killing people. In mRNA injected countries, excess deaths are running well above historical norms.
Not only are they killing people, they are preventing people from being born. In mRNA injected countries birth rates are way down.
The number of people who have died from the virus after shots were introduced, that were supposed to stop people from contracting the virus, let alone dying from it, is bigger than the smaller number of people who died from the virus before the shots were introduced.
Do you find this an important data point? Do you think it is enough to win the prize? Do you want to co-author with me? Where should we publish?
Suffice it to say that I don't think that chart means what you think it means.
Birth rate trends in Israel, German and Russia are the same as in prior years
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/birth-rate
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/new-data-from-germany-birt...
The effect we are talking about is something that necessarily only shows up within the past year, 9 months after young people started getting the shots.
A line chart going back 70 years is not useful here.
If you look at the data, linked above, where it is possible to see the effect I’m referring to, it is not something to blithely dismiss with a chart where it isn’t even possible for the effect to be visible.
Birth rates may be down over the long term, but year to year they are fairly stable, we are seeing moves to the downside hugely outside the range of normal year to year variability. And we are seeing it in a wide range of different populations with the commonality that we are seeing this hugely statistically significant effect occur in all these various populations like clockwork nine months after the young people in those populations started getting the shots.
>This is a continuation of my post from yesterday about a massive 13% decline in births in Germany. Such a decline is a nine-sigma event, meaning that it is so unlikely to occur by chance, that it would naturally happen as rarely as an asteroid striking the Earth
…
When expressed in “sigmas”, units of standard deviation, the 23.24% drop in the birth rate in Taiwan is a 26-sigma event!
This is can be described as “unimaginable” in terms of the likelihood of happening due to random chance
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/depopulation-of-taiwan
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/taiwan-birth-rate-cratered...
https://igorchudov.substack.com/?sort=search&search=Taiwan
Regarding “excess deaths,” I maybe should’ve mentioned I was referring to what has come to be called “non-COVID excess deaths.” The excess deaths are found in statistics of “all cause mortality.”
Is data for non-COVID excess deaths available for Russia and Iran?
In Germany birth rates are way up for April and May
I'm sure Igor will find something else to get upset about, as hysterics typically do
I don’t have any citations on hand, but should be easy enough to search for, especially now.
The 'bivalent' boosters, as far as I understand (non-expert), combine a widely proven safe (likely billions of individuals who've had the treatment at this point) technology and version of the vaccine, which might no longer match the dominant wild strain of the virus, with a derivative of that same vaccine tuned to that current dominant strain of the virus.
In order to be most effective that updated booster should be used while the variation it was designed to protect against is still in the wild.
So not being in the population at risk I have no intention to take a booster. Am I an anti-vaxer? I certainly disagree with public health policy in most countries.
It used to refer to parents which completely refused to vaccinate their children. It has transformed into a weapon, like racist, fascist, etc and is used to silence and manipulate discourse.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/covid-patients-may-be-higher-risk-blood-clots-6-months#:~:text=Ho%20and%20Pell%20said%20that%20while%20many%20Omicron,of%20infections%20%2894.5%25%20in%20this%20study%29%2C%22%20they%20wrote.Should I stop believe my lying eyes?
This sounds like a run-of-the-mill political debate that hopefully in the end was decided on the basis of an expert panel. (And no, of course, medical experts are also not infallible. I don't think we have investigated a disease and responded to it as fast as to this one ever before in the history of mankind, so there were bound to be made some wrong or misleading hypotheses.)
I would expect government members making decisions to consult expert virologists/epidemiologists first. The fact that they can make two contradictory statements means that either they did not consult any experts, or they consulted different experts, which means there is no consensus among experts on the topic.
Clearly there was a disagreement about the danger it posed to children, and perhaps more importantly: the danger that infected children would pose for the adults around them. Because that's another frequently ignored issue: vaccination is not just about protecting the individual, but about protecting the community.
But that disagreement doesn't mean that someone is lying, and it certainly doesn't mean that everything is bullshit. It means that people disagree. And with a very new disease, that shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone. Now there was clearly also a lot of misinformation from various sources, including sometimes governments, but the only way to deal with that and figure out what's what is honest, open discussion by people who know what they're talking about.
Stop demanding absolutely truths about things we cannot yet know, and instead try to think constructively about what would be the best thing to do considering the lack of information we have to deal with.
Nowadays it is used to create an us or them division. Which in turn removes any nuances.
Now whole governments are admitting that people under 50 don't really need those vaccines after all. We now have studies claiming that serious vaccination side effects are more likely than serious covid sickness in young men.
The anti vaxxers were proven RIGHT by this in many of their claims. How should they EVER trust governments again? How should they ever leave their anti-vax echochambers again? It was shown time and time again that governments and their high profile rockstar twitter "experts" get the facts right as many times as a broken clock the time, sometimes even spreading deliberate misinformation/lies ("Faucis noble lies") and absolutely can not be trusted.
My government as well scammed me into getting a second vaccine, after the retracted their claim that the single shot J&J vaccination would suffice.
I am not even an anti vaxxer -I am happy my parents are vaccinated. They always were at an at-risk age, but I am not and I am not interested in getting another covid vaccine. I remain terrified at the prospect of a reinstatement of the green pass system.
Wtf are you talking about. TWiV absolutely thinks everyone needs two cycles of vaccination period… and it’s likely beneficial to get three.
The overlap is not exact, that's why I say use a venn diagram but essentially anything anti-establishment has a anti-vaxxer component since vaccinse are considered establishments' game.
Let me stop you right there, let's quote famous antivaxxer site called CDC:
"Recent studies show flu vaccine can reduce the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well matched to the flu vaccine viruses."[1]
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm
So 40% efficacy IF WELL MATCHED to virus, if not matched it's somewhere between 0-40%.
I'm not sure why you think COVID boosters not matched to current variant will have somehow bigger efficacy than influenza boosters which have only 0-40% efficacy, if not lucky. That's one of the reasons why it's pretty much pointless to get vaxxed against influenza/coronavirus for healthy people, the efficacy is next to zero in both cases for healthy people. For seniors, if they are lucky it will help them, if not it hopefully won't do more damage than good.
I just don't see how you came to that conclusion. They aren't remotely similar viruses, they aren't the same vaccines, yet you confidently declare that if X is true for the influenza vaccine, it must also be true for the coronavirus vaccine? How come?
Let me stop you right there. I'm not sure why you think he thinks Covid boosters not matched to the current variant will have bigger efficacy, or the comment doesn't display correctly on my screen.
That's a disingenuous reading of the thing you just quoted.
It's 40% to 60% if well matched - assuming that that the range is evenly distributed then the middle point is 50% not 40% and reducing overall risk of flu by 50% is a good thing since flu is much more a killer of the old and young (usually - there have been exceptions, 1918 Flu (aka Spanish Flu) killed younger people at a much higher rate).
Flu shot efficiacy is typically under 50% so if they guessed the wrong strains you happen to be exposed to that season it is totally worthless. There seems to be a common misconception that it will somehow help you even if they guessed the wrong ones but I'm not sure why that is so prevalent. If there are 5 viruses, and they got 4 of them, you still have 0% protection against the missing one.
I don't know why COVID would be any different.
Some years it nets highly negative efficacy depending on your previous years vaccination (see 2014 flu).
but the booster made me sick for about a day. i chose not to get boostered a second time, and around 7 months after the first booster i got covid.
I was out solid for a week, feeling really sick. and was still sick for the full second week but good enough that I could do home office. I couldn't exercise (for me, climbing) until the start of week 4. the annoying coughs continued for another 2-3 weeks, but a minor issue overall.
mind you, my resting heart rate is around 55 and I'm quite the sporty guy. I'm 33 so not in any risk group.
no way I want to be about of doing fun physical stuff for 3 weeks at some point in the near future again. so I'm going to get boostered probably in 2-3 months if it's still possible. I'll take the 1 day of sickness and then back to normal over 3 weeks of general suckage every time.
The website page Header is "Vaccination against covid-19"
This will likely be fixed by:dang
per: >If the title contains a gratuitous number or number + adjective, we'd appreciate it if you'd crop it.
E.g. translate "10 Ways To Do X" to "How To Do X," and "14 Amazing Ys" to "Ys."
Exception: when the number is meaningful, e.g. "The 5 Platonic Solids."
>> Otherwise please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize.<<
HN Guidelines : https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Here Denmark will keep vaccinating young relatives of people at risk. Which may make sense, or not. Who knows ? Even all doctors are not 100% confident about anything anymore.
At least it goes slighly against the narrative of "everyone's government is deep in the pocket of big pharma", and more into the narrative of "everyone is trying whatever"
My understanding (again, I might be mistaken) is they the correct headline should be "Denmark to focus booster campaign on at-risk people".
(Which is much less clikbaity, I guess ;) ?)
I’m not aware of anyone being vaccinated by force. Of course the unvaccinated were excluded from social contact in various ways, but that’s just society protecting itself from them. If they still wanted to take the risks, they could and many did. That includes one of my Aunts. She caught Covid a few months ago and had a tough time but fortunately survived.
It's annoying that vaccination is only ever recommended or forbidden.
One should understand that in many countries with large public healthcare there is a big difference between who’s part of the vaccination campaigns and who’s actually allowed to get it, but not targeted by a campaign. I read this as the campaigns this fall focusing on boosting the over 50 and healthy under 50 need to get it themselves (be it first or subsequent shots).
To think, I actually tried sleeping in a bulky P100 mask because the pandemic pr0n was crazy.
Just as crazy as me trying to sleep in a P100, which, I admit, was pretty crazy.
This decision only attempts to address the worst off on average and completely ignores the rest of the population despite what harm it will cause or the new variants that now have a larger group to evolve through.
Just because you disagree with a position doesn't mean it is not science and that public servants are making choices for some nefarious reason.
COVID vaccines have unquestionably saved a lot of lives and will continue to do so in the future. The question is what their involvement will be in the future. A decision that will be made by the same people, with the same scientific rigour that it's always been.
At this rate, several years from now half the population is going to be either disabled or substantially less able than before.
Dismissing COVID as you are doing is a naive and straight up stupid luxury of a young, healthy person buying into the narrative spun by others who'd rather have peace of mind and avoid inconvenience than take this threat seriously.
Given that, reducing the severity of the illness is arguably counterproductive, as it reduces the odds that the person will go out and about as opposed to staying at home away from others.
Sounds like misanthropy to me.
[1]:https://www.gbe-bund.de/gbe/abrechnung.prc_abr_test_logon?p_... (vaccination rates among child school starters)
What I should have said was "nobody should take the pre-bivalent boosters with any expectation of seeing a reduction in infection chances, or severity of disease, based on our current understanding of omicron, while bivalent boosters seem promising, even though we have extremely limited data and won't know for sure until after the winter cycle."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Week_in_Virology
And there is still the issue of long COVID which may affect young people in the future.
Especially as there are active discussions in the insurance industry about its implication for future coverage.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-covid-may-be-long-tail-of-...
Second time was far milder. I was fine after a week. It felt like a cold. It guess COVID-19 is bound to become similar to the other coronavirus which would make sense. At that point why risks injecting a whole population with a barely tested booster?
Secondly, people need boosters because immunity wanes to both the vaccine and natural infections. In about a year, you will get just as sick again if you get a natural infection, so why wouldn't you get a booster that will give you mild discomfort for a day at most.
I’m sorry: you can’t call a vaccine tested for six months excessively tested. None of of the Covid vaccines were properly tested.
It was fine. The urgency required it. This is not the case for the booster.
> Secondly, people need boosters because immunity wanes to both the vaccine and natural infections. In about a year, you will get just as sick again if you get a natural infection
Immunity wane but we have no data which would allow you to affirm that. We know that reinfections can reoccur quickly with milder symptoms. We don’t know how long this ability of your immune system to fight more efficiently last.
There are very little data suggesting that a booster for omicron is actually useful. There is a reason European countries don’t recommend them to healthy adults.
Why not? Your making an assumption based on a single variable: time. There are plenty of other variables that may be even more significant.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-did-we-develop...
https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...
"I wanted to travel and go on my trip".
SMH.
They forced our parents to get these legacy vaccines for a variant that hasn't been seen in a year, and held Juicy cruises over their heads.
Next, there will be a vaccine requirement to play Bingo!
Could you share these facts about the ba.1 and ba.5 updated boosters?
For me personally, the flu vaccine usually means a few days of feeling lousy in return for maybe not getting the flu that I don't know if I've ever had to compare (flu testing has never been something I could access). Otoh, a couple incidents of maybe flu and smaller reactions to the flu shot over many administrations make me intend to get it every year.
Testing positive for COVID this summer was icky and disruptive, I'm going to get the new booster and hope it helps, cause I don't want that again.
BA.5 is targeted and ready. The only question left is one of policy and distribution.
Why? Seems pretty indiscriminate.
After already having had Covid? I'm fit in my 30s.
> and others around you from disease.
Has this borne out in practice?
> My guess is, if you ask your doctor, he or she will recommend you take it.
Guess again.
I think it'll be interesting to follow further vaccine development in that sense.
Also, I don't know why you say researchers no longer believes that vaccines missed the mark. Yes they didn't prevent reinfection of future variants, and that I think everyone was hoping they would and no longer believes that, but just recently this study was published: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... showing an estimate of 14 to 20 million lives saved by the vaccines just during the first year of vaccination. And while 80% of that is from direct protection, 20% is from indirect protection such as:
> reducing the levels of burden placed on health-care systems, reducing the number of days that health-care capacity would have been exceeded and therefore contributing to an overall lower fatality rate from infection
That said the study highlights the same conclusion as yours, people at greater risk should be prioritized since direct protection is much more effective, and also low income countries that are not able to get or pay for vaccines are disproportionately affected, it would make sense to send vaccines that are going to young healthy low risk individuals in high income countries to these lower income places.
Vaccines does significant help in reducing the severity when a person get sick, which reduces the work load on the health care system and allowing the personal to focus their time and skill on people in worse conditions. That is great, but it changes the initial strategy in terms of application and goal.
Those were the deadliest strains as well.
What happened is that COVID started mutating much faster than expected in ways that it can avoid the immune system.
If you got COVID-19 this July-ish (when BA.5 was biggest), maybe you don't need a vaccine update. But given how much the virus has evolved, it only makes sense to update your body to the newest version that's out there.
If the next big strain is from the BA.5 lineage (or closely related lines like Omicron), having your body trained on the new proteins / RNA should help a lot.
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Fortunately, it's not as big a deal because original strain / original vaccine looks like it still prevents hospitalization and deaths. So this is strictly about reducing the spread of Omicron / BA.5 and related substrains.
Is this based on serology studies? Or are there studies that show sharp risk increase for my demographic?
> Fortunately, it's not as big a deal because original strain / original vaccine looks like it still prevents hospitalization and deaths. So this is strictly about reducing the spread of Omicron / BA.5 and related substrains.
That's exactly what I'm wondering. I personally don't worry for myself, if I saw something convincing that showed reduction in transmission, common good all that then I'd potentially do this for someone else. But I'm not interested in participating in free experimentation for big pharma.
Page 9 in the PDF clearly shows that original strain had the least protection, while BA.1/BA.2 (Omicron) had the most protection vs BA.5, but it was still possible to be reinfected. Yes, this includes your demographic. (Population 12-and-older for this study).
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Delta was the first major strain that avoided immunity (IIRC: Gamma was also avoiding immunity to a greater degree than Delta, but Delta outcompeted Gamma). Omicron outcompeted Delta and also avoided immunity, and BA.5 is the mutant of Omicron that further avoids immunity.
Getting your body used to the original strain (aka: your original infection and/or the original vaccine), plus this updated BA.5 specific booster shot, seems to only make sense.
Especially because the vaccine is like, free? Your health insurance wants you to take it because it means less costs to them than if you got sick.
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I should note that even if you don't get hospitalized or dead from the virus, there's still the chance of "long COVID", and other such complications if you get sick. So it still is to your personal benefit to get the vaccine IMO, especially since it targets the latest strain.
From cdc.gov:
Updated COVID-19 boosters add Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 spike protein components to the current vaccine composition, helping to restore protection that has waned since previous vaccination by targeting variants that are more transmissible and immune-evading.
That's my point. The original vaccine may be "worse" than the BA.5-specific vaccine that came out last week. But its still doing its most important job (ie: keeping people out of the hospital and/or morgue).
"Not getting sick" is still useful (and BA.5 specific vaccines should be great at that). But is kind of a secondary or even tertiary concern of mine. Deaths and hospitalizations are my #1 and #2 statistics that I'm worried about with regards to this subject.
This is from fda.gov:
The updated COVID-19 vaccine boosters are designed to give you broad protection against COVID-19, including better protection against the Omicron variant.
COVID-19 vaccines can help protect against severe illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19. As the virus changes and your immunity naturally decreases over time, you may lose some of that protection.
The updated (bivalent) booster vaccines are authorized to help provide better protection against COVID-19.
The reason most people are taking the booster, if I were to hazard a guess, is because they do not want to die or get severely ill. If the booster was only good for preventing minor sickness, well that changes the equation. I mean, the booster itself will likely make them feel sick anyway.
Maybe you're right that original vaccine still provides strong protection against severe illness and death, but it would be nice to hear that from the CDC and FDA as these boosters are rolled out so that those that are trying to decide whether or not to take it have a better understanding of the potential benefits or lack thereof.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Thursday that millions of eligible Americans, including those as young as 12, get an updated omicron-targeting booster shot to bolster defenses against serious illness and death during a potential fall or winter rise in covid-19 cases.
If you doctor is telling you not to get the booster, you need a better doctor.
A pattern of gross incompetence is the kind of thing you'd typically only level at people trying to Godwin their way out of scientific discourse.
Are his claims false? Is his reasoning unsound?
Yes
If you want an earnest discussion find someone making an earnest argument.
If you think that there's a persuasive comparison to be made between exterminating millions of people on the basis of their religion and vaccines, that's great. You've just plainly articulated why I'm not bothering to engage you either.
I'm sure you know why, so why ask?
It seems there is some natural filtering at play. People looking for rational informed discussion about covid have realized it's no longer on HN, so they just don't participate anymore. Meanwhile,those who think this is all a giant conspiracy have found fellow travellers with bottomless cynicism, and those people now dominate these threads.
The class action lawsuits, and all the healthcare providers, primarily nurses, fired for refusing the vaccine.
All this weirdness around having to write cases for exemption, being tracked in a database, among other things.
> The media multiplier effect can, at times, create disinformation storms with potentially dangerous effects for those Russia perceives as adversaries at the international, national, and local level. In the past, Russia has leveraged this dynamic to shield itself from criticism for its involvement in malign activity. This approach also allows Russia to be opportunistic, such as with COVID-19, where it has used the global pandemic as a hook to push longstanding disinformation and propaganda narratives.
Screenshot of a Geopolitica.ru article promoting conspiracy theories around Bill Gates.
> Bill Gates is linked to the COVID-19 outbreak and uses the pandemic to implant microchips “in whole of humanity [sic].” COVID-19 vaccines are a fraud spearheaded by Gates and Big Pharma.
https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/virality-project-fina...
> While all nations have engaged in some form of diplomacy or messaging related to vaccines, the Virality Project focused on observing state media and social media networks linked to Russia, China, and Iran. These three nations not only promoted their own efforts, but also attempted to undermine their rivals.
It's not a conspiracy.
Dismissing people or statement because they sound vaguely similar to some foreign source is in itself an obvious propaganda technique that uses exactly the same mentality as the dumbest conspiracy theories out there.
> I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums.
Their claim was that adversaries are spreading vaccine disinformation. This is backed up by evidence. The only claim being made is that adversaries are doing this.
Their implied claim was that the comment is relevant to the current discussion. That's insinuation.
BTW, did you notice that the very first reference in your reputable report was to NYT, which says very similar things and in turn cites declassified intelligence. Government citing NYT citing government. Even ignoring its dubious quality, the report is dated August 2020, which predates all the Covid vaccines and vaccine-related policies.
The only claim was that they are saying it.
All that to say that, yeah, I believe there's a lot of conspiracy theorists among people who aren't OK with Covid vaccine policies.
/rant
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-disinformation-campaign...
Yes, it has. Although the people haven't changed, the information has, and the most stubborn of people are still defending their initial thesis without any ability to re-examine their priors if they were wrong and actually doing very messed up things to their fellow citizens. They are dug in; because to do otherwise would be having to face guilt.
However, I want to point out that HN was really good in the beginning. I knew about the pandemic earlier than any of my colleagues and gave some advice about cancelling events that sounded ominous then but turned out to be excellent. I even was able to predict the case numbers reliably during the exponential growth phase in early 2020, using my own calculations. All of that thanks to HN. Early discussions from January to April 2020 on HN were quite insightful, as were later discussions of possible medications and therapies by some of the rich hypochondriacs on HN.
I agree that HN is now useless for Covid-related discussions and has mostly turned into unscientific antivax garbage. But it was very useful during the beginning of the pandemic.
My reply, which got flagged for some reason:
Adversaries of the west want us to be unvaccinated and sick. Knowing what we know about "troll farms", I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums.
I'll add more to make it more clear I wasn't talking only about anti-vaccine: These troll farms play both sides. They want discussion forums to be toxic.
Which suggests to me that that you knew what you were doing when you posted it with that title. It seems somewhat intended to spark incendiary comments and disagreement. So I think it's pretty reasonable for the commenter to be suspicious of you. If you want your first article to go better, next time post about something less controversial, or with a more accurate title.
Ah yes, the “guess we might as well give up” strategy.
I think it's fine to recommend that people get vaccinated to lessen symptoms, but we should probably stop pretending it significantly prevents the spread of infection. "The science" does not appear to support that claim anymore, and many people no longer trust "the experts" now after seeing how they all still got Covid. Long term, that destruction of trust will do more harm than good. The Noble Lie is going to bite us in the ass.
While serving in the military got loaded up with all number of vaccines. If you serve, with an area of operations including Africa, you will get lots of shorts..
But now, I seriously do not trust the public health authorities.
I would prefer not to have to read 500 medical studies like I have done with covid with pros and cons on everything, and return to a pre-pandemic position of trust in public health authorities. But I think I cannot because they have proven themselves to be corrupt, politicized arbiters with an angle.
This is really a crummy situation.
I'm asking this because Big Pharma and certain high-profile individuals made it clear in print and televised US media both before and during Covid that we had best start getting used to these kinds of pandemics, because they would become recurring.
I wouldn't write it off just yet - I'm sure they'd like to repeat the 2k of free PrEP a month deal.
It's not a conspiracy, it's pharmaceutical companies maximising value for shareholders as is the craze in corporations these last 30 odd years, any perceived alignment is likely due to being exposed to the same market forces and same dubious corporate philosophies.