You would have been much luckier if your worldview had allowed you to sell at $60k and buy back at $20k.
If someone's looking to sell high, what's to stop them from selling at $20k, which was an all time high in December 2020? Why not wait for $80k instead of selling at $60k?
It's easy to see these opportunities in hindsight, but you can never be sure where the peak is.
Many people have conviction in their belief in God. That doesn't make the existence of God any more sound.
Until then, I will let institutions take the risk and I will stick with my index fund.
money has a time-value, the opportunity loss of investing it in other instruments. The longer you wait for a peak, the more that peak has to be for it to be worth it. When the value you would have had you invested elsewhere reaches your expected peak, you can officially say your strategy failed.