The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?
I would imagine there is a similar point of view in many Russians regarding the West (and they can make arguments about abuses and how intrinsically evil the other party is and patriotic jingles and all that too).
So how, on that road, does this end?
I think we know the answer and it really and truly is awful and the end of the world we have previously known.
FYI, they're "dealing with Russia through force" right now. It's just through proxies, and it's going pretty well.
Although there might soon be some "proxies" soon, like Azerbaijan (unfortunately) and (hopefully soon) Georgia.
The road ends the same way it ended last time, 30 years ago - in adjustment of Russian borders.
Unless you claim that a state that can't even manufacture tanks or ordinary cars (or phones; Russia is wholly dependent on technology imports from Europe) is still capable of remanufacturing nuclear warheads, and is willing to sacrifice itself as a state to use them to... not even prove the point, because it would still be a defeat.
Some back and forth, increasing desperate Neocons with no reverse gear pushing the thing. Western society is over indebted and teetering. Eventually the world explodes in fire, billions die, and some version of MAGA presides over a much reduced United States when it ends. (I'd rather believe your prediction but do not).
There might be a way to avoid the scenario (unlikely at this juncture but possible). It isn't with wishful (Russia has lost half it's armed forces) and hostile thinking though.
Just my opinion.
To Ukraine, this is about pretty much everything - Russians are quite open with their intention to erase Ukraine as a nation, and hundred thousand civilians killed in Mariupol alone proves they are serious.
And then there's Russia, USSR's retarded offspring. They will likely get a lifeline, but it's unlikely they will be allowed to keep the army.
We will see.
>> Simple for you, because you're not the one losing face For example, here's another "simple first step" for Europe "towards redemption" (in the eyes of the Russians): withdraw all military and financial support for Ukraine, and refuse to allow transit for weapons sent to it. How does that one make you feel? Do you think Europe will take it? It's probably only a little less likely than Russia taking your option.
> It works both ways you know. Europe cannot afford to lose face either. Imagine EU can be blackmailed by Russia! Wouldn't stand a chance against the US or China.
Exactly my point.
> The EU clearly believes they can win this fight so why should it withdraw support to Ukraine?
I never said they should. I said that a proposal that Russia unilaterally withdraw is not actually an "easy" one because it would feel to the Russian leadership like the EU withdrawing would feel to your typical Westerner.
America forced the EU into a proxy war with Russia... by having Russia invade Ukraine? Sounds like somebody has been huffing Russian propaganda.
- That the US has a long term goal of preventing a "peer competitor" from arising.
- That the US has a financial and strategic interest in causing the collapse of the Russian Federation.
- The US leadership is capable of intelligent long term thinking (so we have to ignore Trump/Biden).
https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1346.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Grand_Chessboard
https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-rise-and-conflict-with-us/a-550...
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/nato-versus-russia-in-u...
A quick quote from the last link sounds like classic US policy to me:
"A much more truly ambitious apparent long-term US ambition seems to have been to instigate the breakup of Russia into smaller manageable countries, paralleling the emergence of nations in eastern Europe after 1989. It could then deal with a reconstructed historical Russia of smaller emerging statelets run by competitive elites at odds with each other. These new polities, anxious for revenues, will then, presumably, be eager to sign lucrative commercial deals with US corporations since the entire region is extraordinarily wealthy in raw material resources."
And if we look at the result of the current crisis (I'll quote myself from a post above):
"- Potential collapse of the Russian Federation and the economic benefits this would bring (for the West)
- Solidifying EU support of NATO
- Increased energy sales to Europe at higher prices
- Increased military sales to NATO countries due to new threat
- Increased budget for "the military industrial complex"
- Further the long term goal of preventing a peer competitor from appearing by both weakening Russia and making the EU more dependant on the US both economically and militarily.
- Mutually beneficial German/Russian cooperation is pretty much dead now so no threat of such an alliance appearing in the future."
I think its pretty well played on the part of the US; nothing to be ashamed about. I'm interested to see what happens next.
Still, what matters is who invaded. Russia did. And of course what _really_ matters is who ends up being the loser, and again, it's quite obvious it's going to be Russia.
It’s easy to imagine Ukraine coming out just as big a loser as Russia even if they “win”. The EU is in for a tough time too.
I do wonder where we’ll be in 12 months time.
Unfortunately it also means Armenia is screwed. That's what you get for putting trust in Russia.