Do you really believe that a company that makes the majority of its income from advertising will hold its value through one of the worst recessions were facing in a long time?Umm...yes?
But, at least you're making a little sense now. I don't believe they will lose as much revenue as you think. Marketing does decline in a downturn--but it also retreats to quality (i.e. the overall ad spend declines, but what is spent is refocused on the best performing tools). And AdWords is among the absolute best bang for your bucks advertising model available. Anybody that's doing even basic metrics will know that (I advertise on a half dozen different networks, and AdWords is pretty much the head and shoulders best performer, and in response to that knowledge I've increased AdWords spend, and decreased spend with folks like AdBrite and Yahoo). Also, the downturn will hit smaller advertising networks much harder than Google, who have huge cash reserves. Google will survive. Many of its competitors will not. So, the number of places companies can advertise is going to get smaller, possibly a lot smaller.
So, while I agree that everything is going to see cuts, including marketing, I don't think it's going to just stop. As long as a company is in business, it must be marketing, or it'll die soon after. If you aren't reaching people every day, you can't survive. Cuts will happen, and some of Googles customers will die off, but marketing spend isn't going to dry up any more dramatically than other aspects of the economy--maybe less so, since it is core to making money. And companies really want to make money now.
So, long-term, I'm still bullish on Google. Particularly if the stock price continues to drop. I should probably shake down some of my friends at Google for hints on how much impact this is really going to have on their bottom line...but I'm kinda running on gut feeling right now. So, I could be wrong, and you could be right. I'm not betting any money I can't afford to lose, but I'd certainly like to win rather than lose.