I’m of similar opinion. I keep seeing claims of smooth AI video at the level of existing image generation ‘coming soon’ but I haven’t seen any evidence that it’s even close. Few years? Sure.
I expect short video generation to be at the level of DALLE 2 in 1 year — e.g. able to get the gist of a prompt, but with lots of artifacts, requiring a lot of compute, and frequently ignoring large parts of the prompt.
I think we can have it very quickly if someone threw a ton of money at it. The question is who wants to take that bet and run at a loss for ages.
Self driving cars followed the same pattern - the demo is decent but the 99.9999% case necessary for real-world usage is perpetually out of reach
What is acceptable for image and content generation has almost no relation to what is acceptable for safety-critical systems.
Given how insanely high the bar is in creative industries, I’m not sure how deep a purely AI generated graphic can succeed
I don’t think the bar is uniformly that high. Go look at the covers of some Kindle Unlimited titles – Midjourney art is better