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Comment by Zigurd | Hacker News Reader

Zeihan has compelling arguments. I like the way he integrates geography, especially knowledge of agricultural, mineral, and transportation advantages some countries have, demography, and economics. He overstates the "demographics is destiny" aspect of his analysis. Japan, for example, is navigating a demographic decline relatively well. China will probably have a more difficult time if only relative to the CCP's ambitions. But China can continue to improve the quality of life for Chinese people if they don't do anything really stupid and end up isolated like Russia.

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> But China can continue to improve the quality of life for Chinese people if they don't do anything really stupid and end up isolated like Russia.

This is extremely unlikely. Half (HALF!) of China's 1.2B people will be dead by 2050. The CCP is almost certainly doomed to fracture/fail due to this factor alone. Additionally, Xi has elevated himself to cult-leader like status and killed every person who ever brought him bad news. No nation run like that will succeed for long.

Lastly, China imports vast quantities of food and oil and has a tiny navy. They are wholly dependent on the outside world - a point that Peter explores in greater depth in his earlier books.

> has a tiny navy

They have more ships than the US Navy, though they don’t beat it by tonnage. How can that be considered tiny?

There are a number of reasons why China's Navy is insufficient. A key reason is that it cannot defend China's oil supply. Not even close.

What does China depend on from the rest of the world, other than markets and oil?

Food. But yeah, the oil thing is enough.

Food imports to China are pretty important. Surprised to see India as a major food exporter. And Russia. Soviet Russia was a major importer.

Do you mean aside from the trillions of dollars worth of yearly imports/exports? That's a pretty massive part of their economy.

Importing raw materials and exporting finished goods made from it falls under "markets". But they also import a lot of oil and coal for purely domestic use. Not clear what else.

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