I read the title and thought "so what? Anyone can pull up an old blog post" but then I read it and I'm glad I stumbled onto this. Gruber gets a lot of flack from people claiming he far too biased even for an Apple fanboy but I think it's interesting to see this first post where he's quite fair and certainly critical with a hint of skepticism as to whether Apple could follow up on its recent success at the time.
As Apple succeeded over time his positions make total sense to me and don't quite seem as skewed as many often claim.