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Comment by SeanLuke | Hacker News Reader

When they're not actively destroying the Mississippi Delta through incompetence.

I assume you're referring to the Old River Control Structure?

I know it's a controversial project, but the alternative -- to let the Mississippi divert itself away from New Orleans and Baton Rouge -- would be an unthinkable economic (and social) catastrophe. So I don't think it can be chalked up to mere incompetence.

(Yes, I know and agree that the ORCS has been environmentally destructive. But what's a workable alternative?)

> let the Mississippi divert itself away from New Orleans and Baton Rouge

This is perfectly workable, while I understand YMMV

> would be an unthinkable economic (and social) catastrophe.

Not only is it thinkable, it could be done responsibly, today. The ORCS will continue to fail (at irregular intervals), which will cause catastrophe as these events do. At some point, it will be decided that the system is no longer worth maintaining. Might as well rip the band-aid off by setting a specific date and start making a graduated change. If you didn't move out after Katrina[1], I don't think you can be convinced anyway.

[1] there was a 29% reduction in New Orleans population, post katrina

> Not only is it thinkable, it could be done responsibly, today.

How?

You have a metro area of 1.3 million which is totally economically dependent on the river. A huge volume of freight moves through the delta daily. Billions of dollars of port infrastructure have been built in New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

Even disregarding the social cost -- which would be huge, given the high levels of poverty in New Orleans -- the pure economic cost would quickly rack into the tens or hundreds of billions. And tens of billions more would be required to make the new course navigable, rebuild port infrastructure, build new cities to serve the port, relocate workers from other parts of the country, etc.

And even then the river could just change its course again in two years or twenty or fifty.

Not to mention the time it would take to rebuild the industry that is between Baton Rouge and New Orleans. That combined with the fact that the major shipping route to deep water ports to export ag commodities (corn, wheat, soy) to the rest of the world would effectively be halted for probably a year would mean a multi-trillion dollar arrow to the knee for the US.

There's been an enormous amount of PR done on the behalf of the Army Core of Engineers ever since people figured out that New Orleans was their fault.

New Orleans even being able to continue existing at all is due to the Army Corps Of Engineers. The Old River Control Structure keeps it from flooding too hard, and a LOT of resources go into keeping the river along its current route so that NOLA can continue as the premier port for the mid-west to import and export from/to the world.

How much would it cost if the river diverted? Would a huge part of Louisiana need to be geo-engineered to restore the literal bloodflow of US trade (in the East)? There would be dozens of states that would be hosed economically if the Mississippi entrance were to be blocked.

It would cost a shitload. Morgan City would have to be build up tremendously, since that is likely where the bulk of the flow would end up, through the Atchafalaya river, basin, and delta.

New Orleans and Baton Rouge would see one of the most dramatic economic implosions seen in the modern world. Akin to, and possibly worse, than the hollowing out of many formerly prosperous rust belt cities.

There would also most likely be a lot of people displaced by allowing the Mississippi/Atchafalaya to meander at will, since the channels to handle that amount of water if left to its own devices are simply not there. You'd end up with an absolutely enormous floodplain between the current paths of those two rivers. My family is from the bayous between that area. The highest place in town was an artificial hill in a park 20-30 feet high.

All in all, it's probably better ecologically to simply let the rivers meander as they will, but economically it is in the city, state, and region's best interests to maintain the status quo.

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