Unequal consumption lies at the heart of the climate crisis
noemamag.com
noemamag.com
"Of course, many Americans are wealthy in global terms. Oxfam has defined the world’s 1% as the 60 million people earning over $109,000 a year. They defined the 10% as the 770 million people earning over $38,000."
The vast majority of those reading and posting on HN are in the highest global wealth bracket(s). Myself included. This article isn't about billionaires and sports icons. It is about what Americans (and many Westerns Europeans) consider middle class.
The fact that puts you in the global 1% blows my mind
edit to clarify: This is not a value judgement on money. Just saying it blows my mind – the human brain (at least mine) wasn’t made for the power law
[1] https://siliconvalleyindicators.org/data/economy/income/pers... [2] https://www.city-data.com/income/income-Manhattan-New-York.h...
I'm not too surprised on the % of share of the footprint, people making (or spending) at least $40k drive a lot of worldwide consumption (and shipping).
I'd wager a lot of the carbon emissions of the $100k and above group come from flights. Travel among that income level has become extremely popular in the past 50 years. For example, I used to live in California, and it was surprising when I did the napkin math to find the emissions generated to visit family near the Appalachians (just for my seat on the plane).
I calculated that a given person's portion of a round trip cross-American flight generated as much kg C02 as a typical American generates by consuming a year's worth of meat. My two round-trip flights a year were undo-ing the climate savings of two typical American vegetarians.
Given ~400 passengers on a 747, each plane that darts across the whole of America undos 200 Americans who gave up meat for a year.
The FAA claims to process 16mil flights a year of various lengths.
EDIT: some phrases
EDIT2: more
EDIT3: even more content
- Use one Paris-NYC flight per year,
- OR eat meat,
- OR heat their home,
- OR drive to work.
Choose one. All EU calculations about emissions are based on this target, but it’s too early to tell people. It’s based on: Earth absorbs 3 gigatons-equivalent-carbon by night, so we can emit as much. And that’s what humanity emitted in 1990, so it’s achievable. Since then, we’ve double or trippled.
For myself, I consider that the only flaw in this reasoning is that dividing the global permissible emissions by population “is communism”, because it assumes that every human should be given the same pay. I consider it’s normal that some earn much more. That’s the only flaw, and that’s because I’m a capitalist, but it’s great to have the ballpark figure of what would be FAIR to consume for everyone.
(I also have doubts about scientists’ reliability when topics are heavily politicized, but that’s my affair, at least I’m repeating their conclusions as-is, so you can judge).
Note that global population in 1990 was 5.3 bn vs 7.4 bn in 2022.
That doesn't mean it isn't achievable - but it's implies a significant per-person reduction to achieve 90s levels.
Which is why globalizing a carbon market is so key. It organically (ha) funds what we want people to be researching and doing anyway!
Instead, only the fraction of population using more that their fair share is responsible for reducing emissions.
And we can very much reduce meat consumption and car usage, improve home insulation, and fly around much less.
And do that while improving health, life expectancy and quality of life.
What is “fair”?
Again, it isn’t fair that a country can emit more, just by having more population.
Countries don't need to eat, countries don't live in homes that need to be heated, countries don't need to get to work, countries don't travel, etc etc etc, _people do._
Because then you give an incentive to reproduce like rabbits, to be familiar. And reproducing too much is 90% of the reason why we’re terraforming all our forests and swamps. 90% humid zones of Earth have been urbanized in the last 30 years.
Of course you could distribute that capital by free market optimisation. But before there can be buyers there must be sellers. Who has the first claim of those permissible emissions?
So emissions are a flux and emission permits are capital, you are right, but it’s just a philosophical argumenation, like photons are both a particle and a wave, and real estate is both capital and a currency.
Maybe your question was, how do we impose others to not emit carbon, how do we set up the first emission permits. Well that’s hard. But it doesn’t matter - They should have a price and change hands when someone can afford them.
100,000 commercial flights, all over the world, every day of the year add up to about 2% of total emissions.
The 40% of the global electricity generated for the past several decades from those dirty coal power plants that no one wants to live near seem like a better place to start.
In addition to all that pollution, there’s quite a bit of CO2
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2006/jun/15/theairlinein...
That said, this isn't a large enough effect to discredit your point.
There are no good place to start before tackling the other places. We have to start everywhere and cut everywhere. You can’t shield your life style behind the excuse that some things are worst.
2% is also a big number. Cleaner planes are on the way but trying to shift how you travel towards cleaner mean of transport is everyone responsibility.
So is helping the poor countries currently electrifying which constitute the majority of new coal plants being built have access to cleaner sources of power.
Carl Sagan warned us almost 40 years ago that coal would be a future problem.
That was clearly a large problem that could have been addressed, and still needs to be ASAP.
Coal-fired power stations emit over 10 Gt of carbon dioxide each year,[4] about one fifth of world greenhouse gas emissions, so are the single largest cause of climate change. 8500 coal power plants in the world.
“Coal-fired power stations emit over 10 Gt of carbon dioxide each year,[4] about one fifth of world greenhouse gas emissions, so are the single largest cause of climate change.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal-fired_power_station
So, we start the discussion with air travel, trying to reduce 2% to under 2%. While we’ve ignored 20% of global emissions.
We actually cost ourselves decades. So many miracles needed by 2050, when we could be talking 2070.
Now, let’s just tell everyone we need to do everything at once.
No we should and can and are working on tackling everything at once because we don’t have the time to sit on our ass and wait for others to solve issues which don’t affect us before moving if we want our way of life to survive.
There is no valid reason to work sequentially here.
I don’t think we can justify asking those who are already struggling to do more individually, but in this highest income bracket I think we certainly can.
China, on the other hand, deserves a much larger share of emissions, since, despite being overpopulated, they sacrificed themselves to be able to control overpopulation, and they work like crazy.
Summary: Divide carbon emissions by country, not by headcount, because if you calculate by headcount, you give incentive to reproduce like rabbits, which is causing global warming.
This is what happens when you read statistics wrong coupled with some preexisting bias that show in your choice of words.
And while 2021 and 2022 are seeing a drop ( https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-se... ) there is every indication that it will pick right back up and accelerate.
> Even as China’s coal demand is falling, the output from domestic coal mines is increasing rapidly. This resulted in a major overall drop in coal imports in the first quarter of the year, as reported by China Customs, and allowed coal plants and other operators to fill up stockpiles that were depleted during last year’s coal shortage.
> Investment in new coal- and gas-fired power capacity is also continuing at a high level. In the first four months of the year, at least 18 thermal power projects started construction, with a total capacity of 12.8 gigawatts (GW). Another 19 projects with a total capacity of 13.0GW were approved for construction.
We need to divorce the public policy conversation about climate change and carbon emissions from all of this inflammatory and polarizing rhetoric.
Promote policies that target the worst sources of environmental pollution without coding your speech in a manner that causes everybody who voted for trump or itemized their taxes or whatever to stop listening in the middle of what you're trying to say.
We would end up arguing about everything but the ostensible topic.
Perhaps the most egregious example was the liberal coding of vaccination during the pandemic, with the self-fulfilling prophecy that vaccine skepticism is for the other tribe of people who are bad.
You had people with preexisting conditions terrified of making a private medical decision because of the extreme political coding that both sides egged on to hysterical extremes.
This ideological faith clouds judgement, more realism is necessary to navigate these issues.
The belief that science, technology, and environmental policy can transcend partisan politics is necessary for western society to function.
If you step over that in your eagerness to apply postmodern analysis, you'll introduce even greater challenges than the ones we're already barely capable of addressing.
What is "liberal coding of vaccination"?
So what’s your answer?
My answer is only an appreciation for "realism" or "realpolitik" in these matters, that people should not delude themselves at the point when enemies distinguish themselves to you by pattern of action and behavior over time. But you should always work for cooperation where possible of course. "Make friends" (where you can).
I'm mostly responding the point that seems to imply political differences can always be overcome, that everyone is always willingly persuadable, and that science and tech or any institutions for that matter can exist in a vacuum outside of politics. People just don't notice or think about political conflict when they are operating amongst political allies or issues don't rise to level of existential disagreement.
And I’m asking you personally.
Doing it over peacetime class and partisan differences is deeply immoral and really stupid.
As far as I'm concerned, humanity's most fundamental responsibility is to lower its emissions, as much and as permanently as possible.
I am sick and tired of seeing the focus of this task muddied by instead focusing on who's responsible, mixing social justice with climate science, etc. I could not agree more with the spirit of this stuff, but however well-intentioned it may well be, it only serves to distract and fracture and slow us down.
Yes, 10 corporations are responsible for 75% of emissions (or whatever the meme statistic is); yes, celebrities flying short distances on private planes is egregious; yes, your own personal carbon footprint pales in comparison. And yes, it feels nice to abdicate personal responsibility and say "those corporations/rich people should be responsible." Great, now what?
To all of that I say: all of the above. We need everything from sweeping legislation to individual action, and everything in between, with as little bickering or blame-shifting as possible.
Look at Europe right now, having pursued ESG policies their economy and industry is becoming much weaker than US and China. What if US and China don't care about carbon footprint? They win, Europe loses. Same with wealthy vs middle class etc. Too much incentive not to subscribe to energy policy of "less" and "weakness".
What you’re describing essentially sounds like mutually assured destruction.
Will there be those that pursue power and self interest in opposition to long term policy of "less" and "weakness", even if we all were to agree that long term it's mutually assured destruction (I'm not saying I agree with that though..). Then what?
Putin wanted to wage the war in Ukraine and still sell energy to Europe. Europe chose not to continue the 2nd part by various sanctions. Now Putin escalates by cutting further supply in response to sanctions (i.e. not getting paid for the energy he was shipping through pipelines)
If all we do is talk down to or try to control people we don’t agree with, the people we talk about will just keep doing the same to us.
Some of that will happen anyway, but you and I and everyone else reading this don’t have to be a part of it.
If this is really an existential threat, then it's counter-productive to use as just another political cudgel to score Twitter points on the "other" tribe. Doing so actually signals that it's business-as-usual, and that these "concerns" are worthy of the same treatment afforded any other political disagreement.
To take it one step further, to the extent that proposed fixes look like "big government" intervention, with little-to-no regard for conservative concerns or sensitivities, they will look like political power grabs and be treated accordingly.
This isn't what is happening. When you see injustice, it's a natural human impulse to get mad and start ascribing blame to particular individuals. It isn't people dishonestly using "just another political cudgel". It's people getting mad, as people have always done, and personalizing things.
That being said, yes, we don't have time for normal human psychology, though normal human psychology is what got us into and keeps us in this mess. Just as it's normal for people to get mad at other people, it's normal for the people accused to get defensive and deny or invert responsibility. "You don't really care! You're just trying to score points! Al Gore is fat and flies on planes!" Both sides are reacting normally, predictably, in counter-productive ways, like the various Palestinian liberation fronts in "The Life of Brian" killing each other in the sewers while the Romans look on in bemusement.
My wager is on nuclear energy + hydrogen for portable energy. There are lots of issues with this model, but it's loads better than where we are today; and most importantly, it provides a way for us to solve the actual problem rather than slinging blame.
The rich can be led to believe that reducing consumption is an elite status symbol, and an opportunity for posturing among their rich friends.
Though rich people will always consume more energy than poor people, there have been promising shifts, such as the rich competing to own the latest efficient electric car instead of competing to own the most fuel inefficient sports car.
By whom? And, all of them? How about on the level of nation-states where the true power lies. As national policy, entire nations/empires will be "convinced" as status symbol? No one will see the power on the table that everyone else has left?
I think Trump has been a wonderful diversion for particular sectors of society. All they have to do is accuse their critics of being Trump supporters and immediately they become the good guys. No matter their self-interested behaviour or transparent attempts at deflection.
What is a way to have a productive conversation and move towards meaningful action on this issue with "everybody who voted for trump or itemized their taxes or whatever"? What are the values to appeal to or what is the language that doesn't alienate?
One could as easily frame climate change as a problem caused by the global south industrializing and achieving higher living standards, leaving larger carbon footprints.
I'm not a republican. I'm a proponent of science, technology, and climate journalism that focuses on education instead of polarization.
It's simple political calculus. Many of the people involved may prefer terrapins or tarantulas as pets, but if the cat-lovers have ruled themselves out, then anyone else who cares about animals will be courting the large dog vote in order to get things done on other issues.
The cat-lovers then saying "See it was all about dogs all along" just further isolates them and hands more power to the non cat-lovers.
As long as the cat lovers don't start a war based on this paranoia it's almost as good an outcome for society as them accepting the truth for climate change believers, and an extra bonus for dog lovers who get their democratic desires met because they are able to collaborate with people who disagree with them on some things but want to work together on climate/energy.
So we won't because it threatens our hegemony and there's no way to enforce this on every country in a way that actually matters so that it doesn't threaten their standing. So we're in a lock step dance into oblivion unless we can technology our way out of it and not rely on human nature.
That's why more efficient green technologies that don't also threaten a country's position on the world stage are important. Hopefully fusion works out!
The world is firmly multipolar now and if the USA refuses to help in tackling the problem we all face, it’s just going to find itself more and more marginalised on the global scene which is exactly what has been happening since the Trump presidency.
I had no idea.
If you are implying that the market has reduced emissions in developped countries, i believe you're reading the situation wrong: China has become the world's factory, and its emissions have exploded, but the products manufactures are exported and consumed in the most developped countries. So effectively, developped countries emissions have grown. It's trivial to understand this when you observe the explosion of goods and services available in these countries, at the press of a button. There was never in history that many objects around us, in developped countries. Our footprint on the global world is growing rapidly and has never decreased.
The market is failing to deal with climate change because the environment costs (sometimes called externalities) are not part of the market dynamics. The market uses money, but has a blind eye to anything physical. Business is just money and human labor. No mines, no pollution. It's all dollars. Polluting a lake is a X million dollars fee, not an irreversible loss in a one-time resource.
Now people have caught on to the fact that we need locally made things. There’s a huge push among my peers for things that are Made in USA or Made in Canada, and food grown within 100 miles, and things that are durable vs things that are plastic. My colleagues who work in manufacturing automation cannot keep up with the insane demand for onshoring production. I’m talking about everyday objects, but to further illustrate the idea: which car brand is currently the coolest, and why, and where is it made?
All of this is just here - remember they have a sort-of-free market in China. Once they reach the GDP per capita where most people care about such things as the environment, the same dynamic will play out there.
I agree that we should price in externalities though.
Interesting seeing the even more drastic decline in Russia’s emissions after 1991 with the fall of the USSR.
Edit: I found this anaylsis that credits the decrease towards many different factors, but largely driven by a switch from coal to natural gas. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-us-carbon-emissions...
Besides, outsourcing manufacturing to China started many years before the mid 2000s.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?t...
To demonstrate, add some countries like Qatar, Montenegro, and Kuwait to that graph.
That it is concerned with the total CO2 is why per capita is the correct measure when determining if some group of people is doing better or worse than some other group of people at addressing CO2 emissions.
If you go by per country, then countries splitting or joining can change whether a group of people are emitting more or less than their fair share of the world's total CO2 budget. A high emissions country can simply split into multiple smaller low emissions countries. They are still emitting the same amount, but because they redrew some arbitrary lines on the map they are suddenly low emitters.
Take that to its logical conclusion and you get more and more splits, with the limit being a world of 7 billion countries, and per country then ends up being per capita anyway.
So we don’t need to talk about individual’s footprints?
the main things you could do to make a difference: - give up certain foods - not drive a car - limit heating/air conditioning - limit consumerism / waste
But recently, things have changed dramatically.
- giving up meat in 2022 leaves you with many delicious options. From plant-based milks in every supermarket, to vegan options at every restaurant, to lab-grown (or otherwise convincing) meat if you want it - Solar panels on your roof and an electric car solve a lot - Limiting consumerism and air travel remain problems
My point is this: The way we need to talk to people about personal actions related to climate has changed a LOT. Now, you CAN make a real difference by making some easy (and often even economical) choices.
This isn’t really a rhetorical question. It looks one way to me, but it’s hard to know. You pretty much have to dedicate yourself to a mini research project in order to honestly answer that question. That’s how capitalism obfuscates things for us and alienates us from what was ostensibly our original task, namely to save the planet.
"Hey, give up something you love to save the planet"
and now I can say:
"Hey, get solar panels and then you can blast your A/C this summer for free!"
I was questioning whether these folks were really saving the planet. The retort to that is not “doesn’t matter because I can tell them/convince them that they are”.
In other words, their emissions grew over 60%, enough to keep pace with the emissions of everyone else.
Equalising consumption is entirely othogonal and people who are arguing that fossil carbon and 'consumption' or 'quality of life' or 'energy' or anything else that isn't fossil carbon entering the atmosphere are the same thing are either not helping or actively hurting everyone, including those with low consumption now or in the past.
The policies to help climate change help the rich. They also help the poor. There's basically no-one that would be harmed by them in any meaningful way, and literally Billions who would benefit which is why it's so frustrating that we're not fixing the issue, and instead inventing reasons to not fix it.
>Swift topped a list of celebrities, with 170 flights emitting 8,293 metric tons of greenhouse gases.
If you scroll through these tweets you will see celebs taking 10 min flights several times a day. Yet these people have no qualms telling others to curtail their CO2 emissions, eat less beef and host of other hypocritical nonsense.
[0] https://twitter.com/CelebJets
[1] https://mobile.twitter.com/CelebJets/status/1522979709277335...
[2] https://www.newsweek.com/taylor-swift-rep-excuse-private-jet...
It's ultimately a consequence of human progress that we face such population problem. A more reasonable approach towards this would be to share lands and resources and spread people out a bit. But that's a whole different problem and the first world would rather have policies to increase their own population size than immigrate people into their lands.
Focusing on how dirty the rich world is per capita just gives other nations an excuse to do nothing, even though some of them are now actually the bigger problem because of their huge population.
The most telling measure is the growth (or otherwise) in emissions.
Individuals as in regular people of course. But really, so-called carbon footprint is more of a systemic issue than some naughty sin/indulgence that the rich commit.
Call it something else if you'd like but individuals do cause emissions and they should take responsibility to lower and remove them.
If we had influencers who would take a stand, it would be very beneficial at global scale actually. Let's say the top football/soccer players would decline to attend the world cup because having A/C'd stadiums in Qatar, and flying both the athletes and the fans there is generating large emissions. If they took that stand and shared it to their 50M followers-each mimetic fanbase, the benefits for society would be wonderful.
It's worth pursuing exemplarity of our elites because it sets the flagpost for everyone else. Redefining success from rolex, sport car, big house, to let's say skilled handcraft, raising horses, and living in a small rural community; that would really be beneficial to us all.
Look around you at society. People buy brand cloth like $300 white tshirt because of the brand logo on it. I think it's pretty established how humans behave on that regard. Now if you're not convinced (it seems), i suggest you google some sociology studies and look into something more scientific than my example. Feel free to share if my observations are proven untrue.
However for the rich, options are plentiful. Taylor swift has really every options available to her. She could stop working all together. She's set for life already. She could work only on local concerts. She could do a "slow" world tour and take the boat to do it, as a symbol. She doesn't have to fly to LA for a fun diner with a celebrity friend. Etc etc.
Millionaires and billionaires definitely can decide what they want to do. They don't answer for anyone for food and shelter. They make their own rules. In that sense, i think it's fair for the rest of us to judge them hard for a lavish lifestyle that inspires the masses, and really goes against humanity's survival.
I’ve noticed posters bringing up two concerns:
A) Framing anything as being the fault of “the rich” is divisive or offensive.
B) Anything that’s divisive or offensive is counterproductive.
without explaining the bridge between A and B:
A2) People are willing to support policies that hurt the climate out of spite because they believe that everyone votes entirely out of emotion.
In reality, these seem like a fancy and pedantic way to avoid saying “I am willing to leverage both my wealth and the looming threat of the deaths of poor people from climate change to secure the fealty and deference to my feelings that my status entitles me to.”
Maybe instead of arguing whether externalities should be internalized, maybe we consider how much of the externality should be internalized.
Also it's a manifestation of utilitaristic induced psychopathy, of course.
That's precisely how the Stalin/Mao/Hitlers types are fabricated.
2. Populations of psychopaths do not form stable civilizations
Good grief. Feel free to write out your resentment as much as you like. But there’s no need to pretend this is about helping or changing anything.
Oh, you're not that serious? Too much of a sacrifice to make? You think other people should make sacrifices, but having a family is important to you? I see.
How about this - you don't tell me what to do, and I won't tell you what to do.