Dollar goes further with exchanges
For now. The rest of the world is rapidly catching up in pretty much every sphere.
But take movies:
America has but a paltry 330 M people. The appetite for "American" media will wane as India, China, and other vastly more populous Asian countries begin to produce Hollywood-caliber films. American box office increasingly relies on non-domestic consumption. Chinese films are doing bigger revenues, and soon Indian films will too.
Korea is starting to sweep the Oscars, Emmy's, and Golden Globes.
Hollywood is going to be washed out by the vast talent, capital, and differing tastes beyond American borders.
The age of the "American" film has already peaked. (It's not just the market growing up. Kids today no longer want to be Hollywood stars - they want to be famous on YouTube, TikTok, and Twitch.)
The same trend is observable in other fields. Science, technology, fashion, etc.
edit for downvotes: Do not confuse this post for anti-American sentiment. It's an honest current and forward-looking assessment.
I don’t think Korea won a single award at the Oscars this year. They won a single golden globe and two Emmys. It’s just parasite and squid game, so far. They are very far from sweeping the award ceremonies.
The US had a couple of Tim Minchins back in the 18th century too, and even up to the early 20th century it wasn't that much of a deal in terms of global cultural cachet.
As for GDP terms it only surpassed Great Britain around 1880 and then had its global share peak in 1960. It's been downhill since.
If you have a bizarre, adversarial world where someone else's gain is your loss, then sure. In nominal terms it's been uphill since.
>edit for downvotes: Do not confuse this post for anti-American sentiment. It's an honest current and forward-looking assessment.
I don't think it's "anti-American sentiment" as much as unsubstantiated claims.
Parasite was an excellent film I thought deserves all its praise. But "Korea is starting to sweep the Oscars" is a very different statement than "Bong Joon-ho and the Parasite team swept the 2019 Oscars".
What you're claiming is that American cinema has peaked, and "Hollywood is going to be washed out". A more reasonable statement is "The age of exclusively USA/Hollywood filmmaking awards is over".
I kinda sorta agree with this sentiment. I am a huge film buff, and most of the movies I remember fondly are from the 90s (can't blame this on nostalgia since I wasn't even alive then)
And sooner or later the superior quality will sweep over to the mainstream. Parasite is just a relatively minor movie compared to the really big ones. https://koreanfilm.org/ might give a good overview.
Currently a big next step for TikTok stars is moving into Hollywood stuff - Addison Rae, the D'Amelios - just like it was for the Kardashians a couple decades ago.
Even as you talk about American films doing less at the box office, Hollywood itself is rapidly adapting to produce more content for serialized US-market TV (primarily streaming, but this actually started in the cable era).
Many people argue that this stuff is actually better than the "blockbuster films" that are still trying to have global appeal, because of the ability to make more niche content of varying sorts.
It's hard to see Hollywood or a domestic US media market fed by US productions going anywhere. Thinking that the average US media consumption will turn into non-American stuff is the same fallacy as thinking that everywhere else in the world would have just consumed American stuff forever instead of creating their own local markets.
Waning once-huge markets still attract up and comers because of the residual prestige and money - but same newcomers get their popularity from outside those markets, and people wanting to be like them are from the outside too...
But it's not about the actual values but about the momentum...
Are those Chinese movies making big revenues outside China? Until that happens they are just catering local market. So far Chinese movies successful in China or Chinese speaking population. I think it is just logical thing not world changing.
One can also read about Indian movie economics where movies with massive budgets sank like giant turds. Clueless directors in India are shocked that their successful formula of movies is failing so badly.
Kids today also do not want to be doctors, should I be worried that no one will be there to treat my old ass very soon?
In fact, there is more control in this regard lately.
Hong Kong had a nice international movie market, especially for action flicks, but that's dead now.
Chinese media is crippled for the foreseeable future by heavy state censorship, including micromanagement of plotlines: can't do anything that lets the bad guys win or shows the state in a bad light.
I also note you don't include Japan, which is rich and has a population of 100M+, but with the arguable exception of anime has not produced any global blockbusters in decades.
Even if a lot of those movies were banned in China on release, there were much less consequences for a director of a banned movie than nowadays.
the exception is Korea but here too they make movies for themselves that also happen to resonate well with western audiences.
nobody is going to take over the place of hollywood anytime soon.
This person also said that AI porn will destroy all the current porn companies in 10 years and that small groups of people will soon be able to make entire movies, so I wouldn't take their extrapolations too seriously.
Here's the thread in question [1] where I made that claim.
> so I wouldn't take their extrapolations too seriously.
Long bets 10 years $10,000. Let's go. I'm serious.
Not that this is my thing (it isn't), and not to yuck anyone's yum, but my field has a ton of adjacent, quickly growing developments in "generated porn" that I would be remiss to not know about. Each and every one of them could shape up to be a "Pornhub killer", which is what we were originally debating :
- Unstable Diffusion
- Lewdtubers (look on Twitter)
- AI waifu, waifu engine
- Whatever this is: https://m.twitch.tv/nenoko_official [2]
Just as these technologies and democratization threaten Hollywood, so too do they threaten the porn industry.
(My earlier comments in this thread were about the global playing field becoming equal in terms of production and consumption. This post concerns the technologies that will disrupt the existing products. Both trends are happening concurrently.)
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32711614
[2] One of my colleagues just recently pointed out this 100% autonomous, audience driven content. No humans are involved.
In which world do you think the porn industry is just going to wait around doing nothing instead of exploiting these tools and resources for their own benefit?
There are exceptions, such as monopolistic conglomerates with multiple industry-spanning revenue streams to draw down.
But by and large, new tech cycles bring new blood and fresh perspectives that grow fast free of accumulated baggage.
Would existing players be willing to invest 90% of their energy in pursuing these new methods (that are risky), potentially firing the staff that maintain the existing systems? Unlikely. And so it's unlikely that they could grow as fast against a 100% agile new upstart. One that attracts talent and capital and has a promising growth narrative.
Innovator's Dilemma.
I don't think holodeck style content generation technology is too far off. Maybe one day they'll generate computer code too.