They can't surrender due to their macho image, but they can't also endure sanctions for much longer as can be seen from their occasional threating/begging rhetoric towards Europe. So it is a coin toss.
The latter not, since Russia still hasn't even declared war. Russia is at peace with Ukraine right now. (But at war with Japan. You thought WW2 was over?)
> Russia is at peace with Ukraine right now.
There is nothing peaceful about the Russian invasion of Ukraine outside of the pedantry of spoke claims of "being at peace".
Oh, I quite agree, there's nothing peaceful about it. But the formal state being what it is, it won't end a permanent formal state of war such as between the Koreas, or between Russia and Japan.
The Soviet–Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956 ended the state of war. The absence of a peace treaty primarily just leaves a few islands being left effectively in disputed territory status.
Hypothetically if this has broken Russia's military's morale and this recapture of territory continues Putin will be deposed or resign. Already the propaganda seems to be breaking down since yesterday and people are angry at the failures and starting to feel it's a lost cause. He hasn't left himself a way out with his rhetoric and actions, so this will fully blow up on him. After Putin the thorny thing is Crimea, I am afraid even whoever takes over and blames all the invasion and failure on Putin may not feel free to give up Crimea without a lot more fighting.
Question is if there even is going to be any serious fighting and Ukrainians just steamroll into Crimea and take it before new Russian leader will be able to get grasp on power. In the end Crimea is just peninsula with one shaky bridge as direct connection to Russia.