Agreed. I know nothing about automotive engineering or car design, but the hype around Tesla always puzzled me. If this start up can all of a sudden make an economical electric car, then surely the existing automotive manufacturers could do it quicker and cheaper. Toyota, Mercedes, Ford, etc... already have existing designs from decades past that they could at least use as a base. They have experts in material science, car design, and actual resources/contracts to actually build one. If it made sense.
Sometimes the incumbents are just too entrenched in what they are doing to make what out an outsider sees as an obvious move.
* Re-sell third party products for a while ("Until our own offering is ready"). If the recently posted self parking video is to be believed, the in-house products are still not on par with the third party predecessors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA
* Pre-sell your product years before it's ready.
* Aggressively suppress internal and external criticism.
* Avoid objective evaluations of your product.
They have even change the terms&conditions to make it clear that beta testers were allowed to share.
Beta testers have shared lots of not-flattering things and Tesla has not 'aggressively suppressed' them.
They have asked for the outright fraud and slander campaign conduct by a competitor to be removed.
> * Avoid objective evaluations of your product.
Like what?
Tesla Vision (no radar/no lidar) has just been objectively tested:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-ratin...
There are no objective evaluations for FSD as nobody has actually made general full sell driving work.
But you can get the Beta and do any kind of 'objective evaluations' you want. You can even publish all the details, amount of interventions and so on of all your drives.
There's zero way they don't KNOW internally that asking an inattentive driver to take over with no warning doesn't work, and that they aren't as safe as they are trying to spin.
Almost as if Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos imitated Musk instead of Steve Jobs and kicked the can down the road and delivered traditional but improved blood test machines and kept promising stuff down the road by collecting money and be edgy on Twitter, she could have been a hero by now.
I mean, Tesla still delivered stuff that people value. Just not the promised ones.
Tesla makes the best computerised vehicles out there and has built a valuable charging network, not the stated goals but valuable anyway.
It's not like Tesla managed to make cheap electric cars? They managed to make cars with good computers and this is something that people actually want.
Essentially, Tesla made the first usable as daily driver electric car by promising stuff that people believed they want(but very hard to make) so they can collect money and make sales but doing stuff that people actually needed(within the reach of the current technology) to live with electric cars.
Car software will only be reliable as long as it doesn't seem prestigious to write software for cars.
In terms of subsidies, Tesla wasn't actually subsidies that much. The received a 400M loan from the DoD for advanced vehicle manufacture. At that point however, even without the DoD they could have raised that money. Tesla payed that lone back early and with interest. DoD also gave much larger loans to GM and Ford, neither have fully paid back their loan yet.
The tax subsidies only started years later and Tesla profited from the 7500k tax credit. However this was limited to 250k vehicles and Tesla blew threw that very fast and have since operated without a tax credit and had to compete against vehicles coming in from all the global car companies that all got this tax credit. GM also used that tax credit. So did Tesla get a subsidy that helped them, I would say yes but this was open to all car companies and a number of them took advantage of it.
Tesla also gets the same tax reductions as any large company that makes large investments in particular regions.
> My impression is that Tesla succeeded thanks to Musks personality that made the customers forgive unfulfilled promises that they paid thousands of dollars for.
Not sure what this is based off. You don't build a company the size of Tesla based on forgiving costumers.
Yes, sure some costumers waited a while for their model 3 because of production issues, but this isn't really unique to Tesla. Car production often gets delayed. And costumers did not 'forgive' this universally, many canceled their order and bought something else.
But here is the thing, the demand for Tesla electric cars was so high that it didn't matter.
Tesla was successful because they had a product that a huge amount of people desperately wanted, and after some initial delay they got it to those costumers in very large numbers with very good unit margin.
In fact, Tesla often increased the spec of the delivered product compared to the one that was initially ordered.
And the money from reservation undelivered vehicle and FSD is certainty not why Tesla is successful.
Tesla is successful because they sell a 1 million+ vehicles a year with an automotive margin of 30%.
> I mean, Tesla still delivered stuff that people value. Just not the promised ones.
Can you explain what you mean? What did they not deliver on?
Some people (a minority of costumers) didn't get the FSD but that certainly not most costumers.
If we agree to not make it a big deal of people not receiving the products they paid for and if we agree not to make it a big deal for delays and low quality then sure, Tesla is just as any other company.
If people didn't make it a big deal that Theranos runs its test on Siemens machines we wouldn't have had a Theranos scandal too!
If we not make it a big deal for Tesla missing the targets for making the cars cheap and collecting pre-order money for products that not deliver(or deliver late if you kick the can down the road long enough) we can say the exact same thing about Theranos. Let's not make a big deal on how much blood is actually required to run the tests today, it would be 1 drop next year(update the next year every year)!
If you choose to put the threshold of "subsidy received" above what Tesla received, you can claim that Tesla did not receive subsidies. I think TicTac sweets had some trick like that, i.e. if you define 1 TicTac as one serving and if the calories of 1 serving is below the threshold to report you have 0 calories per serving and as a result you can claim the whole box is calorie free!
It really depends on what you choose to forgive or not, I guess.
People should be able to get their money back for the FSD package, I totally agree. I don't know what the status of that is. In my opinion that it should legally clear that you can get your money back as it clearly does not does what it said on sale but I have not read the contract.
As a costumer that would piss me off if I couldn't get my money back on that and law suite would make sense.
Given the absurdly high demand for second hand Tesla and your ability to resell the FSD package while there are lots of people who pay extra for that package, it isn't nearly on the same scale as what Theranos did. In fact since many bought it of much less then it is now, you might have a change of making money.
And FSD sales are a tiny % of Tesla overall business. That makes it very different from Theranos. What makes it also very different is that Tesla has a reasonable chance at delivering and is continually investing and improving towards that goal. They have the capital to continue to work on that, they are not just burning investor money.
Theranos had no realist hope of ever making money and no capital to continue research.
> If we not make it a big deal for Tesla missing the targets for making the cars cheap and collecting pre-order money for products that not deliver(or deliver late if you kick the can down the road long enough) we can say the exact same thing about Theranos.
No we can't. That's an absurd claim. You reserve a product and you can get your money back if you don't get it, that is no different then many other reservations and is totally common practice in the industry.
And no idea what 'making the cars cheap' is supposed to mean.
> If you choose to put the threshold of "subsidy received" above what Tesla received, you can claim that Tesla did not receive subsidies.
Every large industrial company receives subsidies of various kinds. This is simply the world we live in. But some how it gets brought up far more often with Tesla then with other car companies while Tesla actually received less and they absolutely for certain did not receive enough subsidies to somehow claim Tesla was bootstrapped by the state or had some sort of unfair advantage.
So its really just used to downplay what they achieved, "Oh look they had X subsidy therefore XYZ". The reality is the car and road transport are subsidized and Tesla is part of that market.
I would prefer much of that money being spent on trains but I'm not gone shit on Telsa for existing in reality.
I can't really argue against that.
Literally the only point you have is that FSD does not grantee money back and I don't actually know if that is true as I don't know the details of the sales contract.
Faster? What is that supposed to mean? Tesla is the largest EV maker by volume (not sure if I miss any Chinese ones).
Substantial better build quality? Define substantial. Who decide that? Certainly not the consumers, because they can’t get enough of Tesla cars.
Consumer Reports stopped recommending Teslas because of the abysmal quality of their vehicles. And every Tesla owner I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.
Tesla have top ranks in safety, the best most performant interior board computer, their glass roofs are pretty amazing, their internal heating/cooling system is the best in the industry by far. The reliability of their engines and battery packs is actually extremely good. Their structural engineering with their castings is ahead of anybody in the industry. The Model S is literally the fastest production car in the world. They have the largest global fast charging system and the single best integration of cars and charging.
If Tesla gets criticized for quality control most of the times its fit and finish something a lot of people don't actually car that much about. The majority of Tesla cars are produced in China and those cars have an excellent reputation for quality.
> I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.
Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction ratio and the highest costumer retention ratio in the industry.
But I'm sure your personal experience is what is most important in this discussion.
Because, objectively speaking, Consumer Reports, Car and Driver, and thousands of actual Tesla owners think that the build quality of their cars is crap. Literal 90's era Kia crap. And notably, unlike Munro, CR and C&D buy their cars anonymously so that Tesla can't goose the reviews.
Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction ratio and the highest costumer retention ratio in the industry.
Objectively false, and indeed Tesla's abysmal customer satisfaction (nearly the industry lowest) is one of the reasons why CR stopped recommending Teslas.
Tesla have top ranks in safety
As does every other EV with a frunk. And a number of ICE vehicles like Subarus. The safety review tests rank cars collectively, so Tesla are in the top rank but are not the top-ranked, because that's not how the safety reviews are scored. And to claim otherwise is just another example of Tesla's deceptive marketing.
Their structural engineering with their castings is ahead of anybody in the industry.
Yes, it's so good that the Cybertruck has been delayed another year because Tesla discovered that they don't actually understand how structural engineering works. (Here's a hint: car panels are shaped and curved because it provides additional strength; creased flat panels are actually the weakest design you can use for automotive purposes on the basis of mass and need tons of reinforcement.)
They have the largest global fast charging system and the single best integration of cars and charging.
This is the only true statement in your comment. It's too bad (for Tesla) that they're planning to eliminate their only competitive advantage by opening it up to everyone. (Literally the only reason the several dozen Tesla owners I know still own Teslas instead of better EVs is because the Supercharger network is 10000x better than the alternatives. They're willing to put up with the shoddy build quality of the car and the absolutely horrific customer service because the charging experience dominates.)
Plus you can actually literally just look at the videos and look at the items themselves and compare it to other cars that are being teared down. The idea that Tesla has some uniformly inferior quality is backed up by LITERALLY NOTHING.
But I guess when you live in fantasy land where everything is some 4D stock manipulation chess
> As does every other EV with a frunk.
Facts ...
https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety...
> Tesla's abysmal customer satisfaction
Facts ...
https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/tesla-tops-list-most-satisfie...
> Yes, it's so good that the Cybertruck has been delayed ....
This paragraph literally just shows that you are utterly clueless on the topic. And what even sadder is that instead of responding to what I actually wrote you want on some uninformed rant.
> their only competitive advantage by opening it up to everyone.
Yeah because they will just give it away for free and they are totally unable to do cost-benefit calculation on that.
The situation with supersonic flight is very different, the requirements and skills are very similar the ones of traditional plane manufacturers and supersonic flight wouldn't really canabalize their traditional business. I think they simply see that it doesn't make sense. I mean boom can't really explain what has fundamentally changed since tge concorde that supersonic flight is now economically viable.
I applaud people and organizations that take that chance, innovating and trying new things even when there's a high chance of failure. Worst-case, they fail and other people can learn from their mistakes and hopefully do better next time. Best case, they change the world.
Is this a new idea, though? It's not like supersonic commercial jets are a new thing and they haven't been built. The economics of building a commercially viable production supersonic plane is much more difficult to do than building a car or writing a new website to disrupt Facebook or Google.
I 100% agree that people need to be exploring this stuff. That being said, I'll believe it when I see it.
- Anyone of IBM, Microsoft or Yahoo could build a better (quicker and cheaper) search engine than what a bunch of new grads from Stanford can (Google)
- Anyone of the car manufacturer can build a better (quicker and cheaper) electric car than a software millionaire (Tesla)
I don't agree with the statement, I think there are numerous reason people embark on ambitious project that incumbents "could" do, but are not doing;
- An unexpected insights,
- A new research breakthrough from some other field
- Collecting a bunch of the most bright people coming up at the same time in the field (Mueller for SpaceX comes to mind for instance) etc.
But most of the time it's just that it's not really in their business to do a 100 million dollar - 1 billion bet on something that risky, they are in the business of returning like 7 - 10% a year to their shareholder, not producing 5x returns (like the VC/startup business).
And that's for "easy" stuff like electric cars. Not a supersonic plane (which has a full bag of hurt to go with)
If you don't believe me just look at the price tag of a brand new Cessna (which is old/proven/boring technology)
As others have pointed out the Tesla isn't a great example either because building a car is still 100x easier to do than building aircraft, let alone supersonic planes.
"Unexpected Insights" and "A new research breakthrough from some other field" seems to be handy wavy. A supersonic jet breakthrough is not something that can be discovered in a dorm room. It requires millions in research and expensive materials to build and test against.
- Cruise + other self driving car companies (obv also a bunch of software, maybe even software focused, but looking at Waymo, they developed all their own hardware, LIDAR tech etc.)
- Commonwealth Fusion + a bunch of other fusion startups (obv they haven't really gotten to a product yet one could argue, but a bunch of breakthroughs in high powered electro-magnets has been made)
- Heart aerospace - electric planes
- Canvas construction - robotic plastering and painting for construction.
While supersonic flight has been proven, albeit not economically viable, it's still something that has been done, and done like 40+ years ago. It's not really on the "fusion power"-levels of difficult. But sure, I guess on could argue both sides equally well :)
In regards to research breakthrough, sure they were handwavy at least as it relates to jet engines capable to support supersonic flights. I don't have any sources but I have little doubt that jet engine / material breakthroughs has been made since the 80:s.
SpaceX went from founding the company to their first orbital launch attempt in 4 years, was obviously d*mn close to successful orbit 1 year later, and actually made orbit another 18 months after that.
Vs. Boom Supersonic, not having had to design nor build its own jet engines, is already 5+ years behind on their 1/3-scale, zero-passenger technology demonstrator even trying to taxi down the runway.
And SpaceX started with engineers who knew a lot about the domain of the actual problem (rocket engines). Boom has never designed an engine.
Starlink satellites are a great example of SpaceX solving engineering problems that an incumbent couldn't, but SpaceX was a pretty large company at the time the effort started.
OTOTH, there was never a rocket that could land, only suborbital prototypes. Shuttle doesn’t count since it’s reusable in name only, as it still cost substantial amount of money and time for refurbishing. In fact there are still no other reusable rockets, seven years after SpaceX did it for the 1st time.
And we had supersonic passenger jets in the 60's. But they weren't economically viable. I'd argue that Boom is trying to do exactly what SpaceX is doing for rockets, which is to make supersonic air travel make economic sense. Any engineering that they need to do is really towards that goal.
That doesn't mean Boom is that, however.
Edit: Reusable or VTOL rocket were tested, successfully landing, in the early 90s by McDonnel Douglas under the DC-X program. No idea where the 70s thing came from...
Note that SpaceX didn’t get any meaningful defense contract until they’ve proved themselves with Falcon 9.
Probably the latter, because there are some low-brow skeptics on reddit and youtube who inexplicably seem to think the Falcon 9 is a stolen Delta Clipper with a new paint job.
The actual landing with propulsion is actually the easier challenge if you have an engine that can hover.
However SpaceX had to figure out how to get do supersonic retro-propulsion and basically making a heat-shield out of fire to protect the rocket on its way down, then navigate a terrible air-frame at high speeds and then do a never before tried hover-slam maneuver with an overpowered rocket engine.
That is very, very different from a DC-X that just goes up a bit comes straight down and then can do a slow landing.
I know some of the old space companies did some studies, you can also find a very long detailed post by Tori Bruno on the topic. The problem is, these studies and opinions are no necessary correct and in fact we know that they were very much incorrect. The assumptions both technical and economical these companies were making were simply not correct, at least not with the right engineering and investment behind it.
The study that you are talking about was from the 2010ish time right, not the 90s or something like that?
Arianespace/ESA totally fucked up with Ariane 5, instead of designing a booster that can dominate the launch market they designed a very niche booster and were forced to relay on Soyuz and couldn't beat Proton in many markets.
Partly this was because of Hermes and as they design Hermes it became bigger and bigger and so did Ariane 5. And then Hermes was canceled and Ariane 5 remained oversized.
Most established players don't want to cannibalize their existing market by launching a product in a niche segment. Sales and Marketing $$$ eat into the profits which is not easy to justify when you are profitable. If you are fighting for your survival then it's easy to reallocate resources to fight.
How could you possibly think that?