I don't blame you for coming to the conclusion you have, but you'd do well to signpost when you suspect something is true vs have reason and evidence that something is true.
On the contrary, Mary Poppendieck has a wonderful presentation she gave on how the Empire State Building was built in record time by literally doing it as a more agile-style construction. https://chrisgagne.com/1255/mary-poppendiecks-the-tyranny-of...
Likewise, American manufacturers by WWII had already gotten very good at building complicated machinery based on relatively light levels of blueprints and documentation, with the detail-level designs being added to the drawings used on the factory floor.
In many ways we have to blame the introduction of computerized project management for waterfall... it simply wouldn't have been workable before that to even attempt a real waterfall method for projects.
> Kanban is a core but small part of TPS, it can't be said to be pro or against safety.
The poster's point is that it's not obviously defective from that standpoint, despite criticisms that imply that it is.
The Royce paper saw the one-shot waterfall as unrealistic even with the project alternating back and forth between phases. It ends with a complicated-looking process of writing two systems. Estimation of time to completion or cost is not really solved there.
But really what people mean when they refer back to Waterfall is the idea that you can put a reasonable upper bound on cost and time to completion of a larger project while keeping a maximum lower bound on functionality/scope.
Even in the 1980s, people were looking at business software systems and thinking they were pretty well defined in terms of complexity. A database, a bunch of data entry and data retrieval screens, some online functions, some batch functions. Maybe you could specify these like a builder specifies a concrete sidewalk. (A literal example from a software engineering book). Then estimation should be possible.
The trouble is that the requirements of a multi year project are often out of date before the project is started and many specifications are underspecified until the customer has seen something like the final product. So why not plan around change? Bound the budget, allow some schedule time, and see how much functionality can be built in that time. Let the customer prioritize parts of functionality and the developers work smoothly, and the whole team can stay in a mode of delivering functionality frequently.
Royce 1970. https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.5555/41765.41801
Boehm 1986? https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/12944.12948
This process includes multiple reviews in a "SETR" (System Engineering Technical Review) process (https://www.acqnotes.com/Attachments/SETR%20Navy%E2%80%99s%2...), including steps like:
* SRR (System Requirements Review)
* CDR (Critical Design Review)
* TRR (Test Readiness Review)
Example of slide 15:
Example of Items from SRR Template
* SW Development Team
* Integrated Mater Schedule Highlighted with Software Milestones
* Software Entrance Criteria
* Requirements Analysis and Allocation Methodology (sounds agile to me!)
* System Specifications Tree
* Contract Data Requirements List (CDRL)
* Software Development Strategy
* Software Development Process
* SW Safety, Information Assurance and Security requirements
* Software Supplier Management
* Software Measurement
* Software Risk Assessment with Mitigation Strategies
* Issues and Concerns
Is this anecdotal or what? "I want the citations."
Never had my soul be destroyed as completely and I seen such a massive waste of time and money.
No amount of agileness is going to save you from a miss managed team.