> And people really do win the lottery, but you kinda don't base your life decision process on that undisputable fact.
Odds of winning the lottery: one out of 302,575,350; Odds of your child being kidnapped in a year: three out of 250
Odds of winning the lottery: one out of 302,575,350; Odds of your child being kidnapped in a year: three out of 250
https://www.creditdonkey.com/kidnapping-statistics.html
205 kids per year are abducted by strangers in US. More people per year win some kind of significant lottery.
Also, there are 80M kids, if 205 kids per year get kidnapped that's still better odds than winning the lottery.
And you can look at the raw incidence in various way to get various probabilities.
And even 205 in 80M is small enough so that people are unable to reason about it. Which you clearly display.