Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution | Hacker News Reader

Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution

marco.org

51 pointsswitz52 comments

> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in, effectively close it, and make themselves the gatekeeper. And as gatekeepers go, Apple looks quite benevolent by comparison.

Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?

Indeed. He casually dismisses side-loading before claiming Apple is a relatively benevolent dictator, completely forgetting (or not realizing) that (among other things) side-loading is how the Amazon Appstore got started in the first place.

Are you really trying to suggest that the majority (or even a decently sized minority for that matter) of Kindle Fire owners will know how to and actually go to the trouble of side-loading apps onto their device? Just like a majority of iPhone users don't install their apps through the App Store... oh wait.

Side-loading on the Kindle Fire is no harder than it is on your typical Android phone. A significant portion of Kindle Fire owners will side-load apps if someone gives them an incentive to.

Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it?

Oh, wait...

I remember all these people who told me that no web browser will ever gain market share on Internet Explorer, because "Dude, it's preinstalled on their computers" and "people don't even know what a browser is".

I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.

Seriously. This is a completely ridiculous prediction. I'm not saying it's actually likely, but I see a greater chance that things will go the other way: i.e., Amazon will open up the Fire (or future devices) to work with the Android Market.

What's your reasoning for it being 'ridiculous'?

It seems reasonably that the fire could outsell all the other Android tablets combined by 2x, possibly even in its first quarter of existence. Amazon has a great brand and distribution channel, and the Fire is very good value for money.

It also seems quite reasonable to suggest that Fire owners may well purchase apps at a significantly higher rater than other Android tablet owners or even Android phone owners. Why? Because the Fire is all about buying content, and the apps are presented in the same context. Also, Amazon's store may work better than the Google's one.

These aren't foregone conclusions, but they seem quite reasonable.

If these two things work out, then Amazon's app store could easily end up being the channel for most Android app revenue.

Then, it would be an easy decision for app developers to target the Amazon store first.

The Kindle Fire could outsell other Android tablets combined by 10x, and it'd still be outsold 10x by Android phones, and that's what makes it fairly ridiculous.

It's not that the Kindle Fire isn't a great product, it's that it's not relevant to the primary Android market - cheaper smart phones for the 99% of people around the world who can't afford an iPhone.

It would be interesting to see what proportion of apps are bought by people who buy the low end Android phones that are actually cheaper than iPhones. I suspect the answer is not many.

True, and that's where the "missing leg" of Amazon's current Android strategy comes in - they don't have an ad network to support free apps, unlike Google.

There's definitely going to be people who don't buy apps, and who don't install many in the first place, but for those who don't want to buy them (or don't have a credit card, quite common in most of the world), free ad-supported apps need to be in place.

I'm a bit uncertain about this.

If people can't afford to buy apps, can they afford a data plan, or to buy the advertised products?

I certainly think there's a necessity for free apps. I'm just not sure that there's any necessity for ad-supported apps.

Don't get me wrong - I'm certain that there are a lot of people who like to choose advertising supported products. I'm just skeptical that it's out of economic necessity.

It's not necessarily that they can't afford to buy apps, but that they live in an economy where credit/debit cards (and even bank accounts) aren't that common.

Most of Africa's like this, same with a lot of Asia - Visa and Mastercard have very little footprint there. Instead people use cash to buy pre-paid access from their mobile carrier.

You're right there's a question around what kind of adverts you'd display to them though.

Yours is an even more ridiculous prediction. In October the total estimated number of Android tablets sold was 6 million. I'm not sure if this figure includes the Nook color but if it doesn't then that would take it over 9 million. I don't think it is at all reasonable to suggest that the Kindle Fire might sell 12-18 million units in it's first quarter.

Due to the rumors that Amazon has two more Kindle Tablets coming out in 2012, I'd say there's a better chance that the Kindle Fire will never sell 12-18 million before people lose interest in the original model.

I didn't make a prediction so save the insults.

Where do you get that 6 million figure from?

The nook doesn't include the Google app store, so if 6 million includes it then the relevant figure is much smaller, and if it doesn't then you're 9 million number is irrelevant.

And you're supporting Marco's argument by suggesting that Amazon will soon produce some even more compelling tablets.

The only point here is whether Marco's prediction that Amazon may end up in control of Android App distribuition is 'ridiculous'. It clearly isn't, and you haven't shown otherwise.

"It seems reasonably that the fire could outsell all the other Android tablets combined by 2x, possibly even in its first quarter of existence. Amazon has a great brand and distribution channel, and the Fire is very good value for money."

I was referring to this statement. I rather like Amazon and the Kindle Fire, I just don't see them selling 2x the total amount of Android tablets that have been sold thus far.

If you weren't including all other android tablets when you made your comment, then you shouldn't have used the phrase "all the other android tablets combined."

The 6 million tablet figure is an estimate from Andy Rubin.

http://www.androidauthority.com/there-are-over-6-million-and...

As far as Amazon taking over app distribution, I don't think that it will happen. As stated elsewhere, there are many more phones than tablets, and that isn't going to change. While Amazon's alleged Kindle Phone may be as big of a success as their tablet, it still won't represent a large enough market to matter to Google.

Fair enough, neither of us were particularly precise. The rubin figure will undoubtedly count anything that can possible be called an Android tablet, including the nook.

That said, what matters is not how many devices are sold. It's how many app buying customers adhere to each store, and how much they spend. The vast majority of android phone owners are not buying apps.

"That said, what matters is not how many devices are sold. It's how many app buying customers adhere to each store, and how much they spend. The vast majority of android phone owners are not buying apps."

This is true. I have been using android since the G1 launched, yet I have probably only spent about 50 dollars total on apps. When I see an app that I want or need, I purchase it. I've purchased 4 different PDF readers in order to find the best one. (not including the PDF reader that came with docs to go) Unfortunately there just isn't much that I would need even on Google's own market.I would probably buy a lot of games, but there's only a couple on the market that are worth playing.

Also a very US-centric take. Apple and Android Market apps are available outside of the States. As of today I still can't get legitimate access to much of what Amazon has to offer (I'm in Australia)

> Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?

I'm pretty sure that the average technically-inclined Android user knows more about the Android than the average technically-inclined iPhone user. But Marco's experience building and successfully marketing mobile apps skews it quite a bit.

Also it's quite common to be familiar with something you despise, for instance in war people become familiar with the enemy.

Finally, to answer your question, he made the prediction because he thinks a lot. He shared it because he didn't see anyone else saying it. If numerous Android experts were already saying it, I don't think he would have bothered.

TBH I can't stand the amazon app store. The only reason it's still installed is because I have like 2 free apps that I use daily (SwiftKey X and sometimes QuickOffice Pro) the free apps mostly suck anyways, and the annoyance generated is extreme. Google market's superiority is pretty big. Problem is that its not Amazon.

There is no way amazon's few millions of tablets can compete with the hundred of millions of phones AND tablets that come with Google apps preinstalled. To say that amazon will take over android app distribution is a very very far stretch.

Comparison of downloads for one of my apps:

Android Market: 25.000 downloads / day

Amazon AppStore: 50 downloads / day

I'll believe that Amazon's AppStore is big (for everyone, not just for the daily featured app) when I see it.

Amazon AppStore is, I believe, the biggest android tablet app store. And growing. If you believe numbers that come from Gruber (and his math seems reasonable), as of July there were roughly 1.2MM android tablets [1]. Kindle Fire has sold, or will this quarter, 6MM units [2]. Thus Marco's hypothesis seems reasonable:

(1) if you want to make money on android tablets, you have to go where the tablets are. That is Amazon's appstore. They are, by volume, already 3-4 times the rest of the android tablet market. And this gap will probably continue to row. I would be surprised if, by this time next year, they do not have 10-15 times the marketshare of any other android tablet. Remember every other android tablet manufacturer has to make money on the tablet. Amazon probably loses money in order to make it back when you buy books, movies, magazines, music, etc, from them. Thus their tablet will almost certainly be cheaper, and hence more common, than any other android tablet.

(2) this will bootstrap their presence on android phones, especially once they release their rumored android phone. Which will be shitty but really really cheap (my prediction).

[1] http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&vi...

[2] http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-...

Even if you ignore all of the issues with Gruber's math (non-Honeycomb tablets matter a great deal, for instance, especially when you're trying to understand the impact of the Kindle Fire), as of July is a very, very out-of-date number. As of the beginning if November, ASUS alone has sold 1.2 million Transformers [1]. A better number is 6 million Android tablets (from Andy Rubin at AsiaD) [2], though that still leaves out important slices of the Android tablet market like the B&N Nooks.

Putting this together, if Amazon hits their (rumored) goal of selling over 5 million Kindle Fires, they'll certainly get a substantial slice of the Android tablet market and quite possibly a majority among US users (depending on what you count, like Nooks). Nevertheless, there will still be a larger slice of Android tablets with Google services and the Android Market, and the Android Market will be dominant outside the US (e.g. if you believe the NPD numbers ASUS might well have sold over 90% of their tablets outside the US [3]).

[1] http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_t...

[2] http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android...

[3] http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.l...

I'm not able to tell if the [1] link there is "shipped" or actually "sold to consumers" — they seem to talk about selling 1.2M but shipping the 1.8M by the end of the year. Since I doubt all of those are being sold right away, I'm not sure how that adds up. Same for [2] — does Rubin's "out there" mean shipped or sold to customers?

I thought ASUS was being clear in [1]. They've sold 1.2 million so far and plan to ship at least another 600k by the end of the year. At this point, they can't count those 600k as sold since that would be predicting the future.

As for [2], I'd expect Andy Rubin's number is based on the number of tablets accessing Google services [4] (which isn't surprising since that is the number Google can most easily observe). Given that, it seems clear to me those 6 million count as sold.

[4] http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/19/googles-andy-rubin-six-mi...

Thanks. I found estimates of 3.4MM android tablets as of mid October [1]. Pretty dismal figures or Google would be trumpeting them. Still, I think most of my point holds -- if Amazon sells 5MM kindles they won't just have a good slice, they'll have over half the market. And if your outside the US figures are correct, Amazon will hold an even bigger slice of people who can afford and will purchase android tablet apps.

[1] http://www.slashgear.com/googles-honeycomb-offensive-musters...

You seem to be presuming that people outside the US can't afford or won't purchase Android apps.

Given that outside the US includes Europe, Australia/New Zealand and the more affluent parts of Asia (Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, etc.) and those are the places I'd expect official Android tablets to be selling, that assumption seems strange to me.

Also, don't be so quick to conclude Amazon will have over half even the US market. You're forgetting to count the Nooks (which have to be counted if you're counting Kindle Fires, of course). The best number I've found is about 3 million from March 2011 [1], with B&N claiming an unspecified "millions" at the Nook Tablet launch.

That means, to win in the US at the end of the year (since they're not competing internationally), Amazon has to beat:

* ~3 million Nook colors sold as of March 2011 +

* Nook Colors sold between March 2011 and the end of the year +

* ~1 million Android tablets sold through October 2011 (NPD numbers excluding TouchPad) +

* Android tablets sold in November and December

Theoretically, 5 million might be enough for Amazon, but you'd have to think:

* that Nook Color sales collapsed soon after March

* the Nook Tablet will flop

* Android tablet vendors can't even replicate their sales-to-date during the holiday season (even though there are new quad-core models and cheaper 7-inch models, among other things)

Personally, I think the more interesting race is Kindle vs Nook one-on-one. Nook, of course, has the early lead, but Kindle is selling faster. I think everyone expects Kindle to win eventually (absent a game-changing move by B&N), but will it be this year?

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nook_Color

Couple thoughts:

AppsLib.com claims to be on 2M tablets [1]. Amazon will be on nearly 3x that soon, so you say, but guess what: That's not NEARLY enough.

My game was the #2 app overall on AppsLib for over two weeks. I got so many downloads that I could...just about buy a sandwich from the ad revenues. As long as it wasn't a premium sandwich.

More than 6M Android phones ship every 11 days. Probably every 10 days or less at this point -- the 550k/day number I used to calculate that is a few months old. A year ago I heard from one developer that their top game was pulling in $5000/day in ad revenues. Back then the iPhone had much larger numbers than Android.

Maybe paid apps will be better, but as the article points out, Amazon has a REALLY bad deal for app providers who are charging for apps. They can cut your price in half without asking, and you get half the normal commission! They can even give it away for free, and only pay you 20% of list price! Oh, and if you ever have a one-day sale on another site for the same app, then they can just cut your list price (and commission) permanently!

No, I don't think 6M tablets are going to overthrow Google's Market. In fact, I think that when people discover that the Kindle Fire doesn't have GPS, a camera, the free 3G of the older Kindles, or any of the Google apps that make Android shine, that there will be a consumer backlash. The Kindle Fire is a fancy eReader that can use SOME Android apps, and that's it. It may be enough for a lot of people, but it won't be long for other Android tablets to come out at the same price point. Like Lenovo [2].

[1] http://appslib.com/developers/index.html

[2] http://www.pcworld.com/article/239328/lenovo_heats_up_price_...

Um, the Amazon Appstore will have limited relevance as long as it is US-only. Even the number of people who will sideload apps onto their Kindle Fires will dwarf the number of people who figure out how to get to Amazon's Appstore outside the US.

Why would anyone want the Amazon Appstore? It's horrible.

Free App of the Day, mostly. There are also a few exclusives, though, like the official "Super Why" app (which my toddler adores).

In regards to this prediction, there's an elephant in the room.

The power of Android comes from it being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why it exceeded iOS in numbers. And tablets sales are not so flattering, but I'm already seeing Samsung doing a pretty good job and I'm sure others will jump in.

So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?

This makes no sense.

"So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?"

I don't know if they'll do better than apple, but the Fire is half the price of an iPad and is being heavily promoted to Amazon's enormous user base in the run up to Christmas.

I have no doubt the Kindle Fire will be a success, but we are talking here about Amazon overtaking the Android's app distribution, as if Amazon could do that by any stretch of imagination.

So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?

This is relevant, because for Amazon to take charge, either one of these 2 things have to happen: (1) Amazon should be so successful as to make irrelevant the other Android device makers OR (2) Amazon should make the device makers use their own Appstore

I'm not seeing (2) happening and as far as (1) is concerned, what can Amazon do that Apple couldn't? If price is the only issue, that didn't stop expensive Galaxy S phones from being sold, in spite of iTunes and in spite of a general consensus that iPhones are better.

It would have been nice if you'd prepended "Prediction: " to your headline.

You'll have to get developers on board, I think. http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store...

I really wish this blog post would quit being passed around as Amazon screwing every developer in the world over. I don't know how you can rationally believe that they would offer to give your app away to thousands of people who have no intention of spending any money on the app besides the fact that it is free for the day, and just handing over free cash based on the random number of people who clicked 'download' that day.

The whole point of being featured as the Free App of The Day is for exposure. Not monetary handouts.

I'm not expecting Amazon to hand out money to developers. But, as a developer* , I don't want to put myself in a situation where my work (that I would have otherwise charged for) is being given away for free.

Conversely, as a user, if there aren't quality free apps in the amazon store, why would I use it in the first place? I can get the same content from the built-in Market.

So, from both a developer and user standpoint I see no reason why Amazon should "take over Android app distribution".

* Hypothetical, I don't develop for mobile at this time.

Inclined to agree Amazon might garner a substantial lead for Android tablet app distribution, but theres still an awful lot of phones, compared to tablets and I for one cannot see this changing in the short term.

One good thing to note is Android 4.0, is asking for credit card details on initial start up now, so hopefully paid users++ when it comes to the Google Market, which might also help quell the myth of Android users "don't buy apps" which I feel at the moment is self reinforcing by the fact most published apps choose to ad support

Beyond that, Ice Cream Sandwich unifies "phone" and "tablet" apps (a distinction that already makes much less sense in an era with large, 720p "phones"). That completely changes his inferred dynamics of the Android app stores. I think the Android Market and the Amazon Appstore (and GetJar and Handango and ...) and direct sales from developers will happily coexist for the foreseeable future.

The distinction between phone and tablet apps on android has always been pretty blurry, ICS is about unifying the operating system features, not the apps. Talking about a 'tablet app store' is silly, even ignoring ice cream sandwich.

I agree talking about a "tablet app store" is silly (note the quotes around "phone" and "tablet") since many Android apps scale quite nicely for both form factors and more will with time, but, sadly, the Honeycomb detour confused people (especially for iOS-influenced outsiders).

I fucking hope not.

Amazon are the most developer-hostile company in existence.

They make Apple's App Store look like a utopia of freedom and openness.

Excellent assessment. Can't see it happening on the scale you have suggested, since it is unlikely Google will ever lose influence on more than half the marketshare of the Android app ecosystem....

Yet another equally plausible scenario would be an eventual deal between Amazon and Google. In wherby Amazon would acquire / take-over the Android brand and replace Google's role as leader of this platform. Cause some of us have a suspicion that Google will eventually transition their focus to 100% Chrome anyway; 'dropping Android' and/or selling whatever control it currently has on it to another company. Amazon seems ready.

Google giving up on Android for Chrome makes no sense.

Taking control away from other companies over the future of mobile phones is the biggest reason why Google released Android, a genius move nonetheless. It's the same reason why they have been paying shitloads of money to Mozilla, it's the same reason why they released Chrome ... to make Google's search the default.

And Chrome is nice and all, with Chrome OS being an interesting experiment, but the importance of Chrome pales in comparison with Android - their biggest success since GMail.

I also do not think Amazon will take over anything. The power of Android comes from being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why Android exceeded iOS in numbers.

Really, what makes anybody think that Amazon can do better than Apple?

Amazon also has an app review process that slows down development for developers. This will keep many developers preferring the Android Market.

Unfortunately, it may not be developers who decide which one succeeds. If Amazon becomes the place where the money is, then there will be no avoiding it by developers.

As a developer, I've had horrible, horrible experiences with the Amazon Appstore that will keep me away for many months yet; with apps being rejected and moved through all stages of the feedback process without so much as a whimper of feedback from Amazon. Genuinely the worst "customer" experience I can recall.

I agree. I've been waiting for this moment since the Android launched. Where the Google version of the Android store has started to get the ball rolling, Amazon's 1 click purchase is going to take that snowball and turn it into an avalanche.

Granted, I'm still an iOS dev at heart, but I'm jumping into Android dev (for Amazon) with both feet.

So there will be an Amazon phone soon?

He forgot one major point..

Google Appstore is slightly curated to remove harmful apps by a system built by skilled engineers. Amazon has no system setup to scan for harmful apps and to remove them from their market.

And.. yeah there is an and..Kindle Fire is a tablet bastardization in that its a tablet off the phone code base not android 4.0..that means some app rewriting to put it in the Amazon store as Amazon does not use Google services such as License verification, Google maps, etc. The offer by amazon to developers would have to be very compelling to get developers to spend time rewriting applications. That offer is not compelling yet..

Its more likely that the two parties would partner to do android app distribution rather than Amazon taking over..

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