> It seems to do a pretty good job of predicting future stock market performance.
Does it? Care to elaborate on that?
Does it? Care to elaborate on that?
The Medallion Fund has employed mathematical models to analyze and execute trades, many of them automated. The firm uses computer-based models to predict price changes. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions. [1]
Renaissance Technologies' Medallion fund, which from 1988 to 2018 clocked annualized returns of 66%. After fees, those annualized returns were still remarkable, at 39%.[2]
[1] https://wealthofgeeks.com/medallion-fund/#:~:text=Algorithmi....
[2]https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-....
The article isn't critical of mathematical models, it's specifically critical of deep learning. Is there any evidence that the Medallion Fund uses deep learning? Are there any funds that have said they use deep learning that have a consistent track record of beating the market?
My (admittedly anecdotal) understanding is that many, many people have tried using deep learning to predict the market and I'm not aware of anyone who has had long term, consistent success with it.
Offtopic: I still bet the "secret sauce" is insider trading :)