I've heard this argument against QTM several times, but it is not entirely what is predicted by QTM. If we take Cantillon's explanation for how increases in the quantity of money affect prices[1], he suggests something completely different - the things which go up in price first are luxuries and stocks (things purchased by those who have early access to the new money, who are by large, already wealthy) - then it is the providers of those luxuries who are next to access the new money, and the goods they purchase are next to become inflated. The inflation does not happen over night, or uniformly, but is gradual. It might be the case that prices rises become uniform eventually, but as the process is on-going there are some commodities which are affected before others.
Energy in particular impacts every industry, so there is no doubt that any rise in energy prices will be similarly met with price rises in all goods sold by any company which now must have additional energy expenditures. They will increase the price of the goods they sell to compensate. So while energy prices might be way ahead of other price rises now, it won't be long until the price of everything else follows. It's going to get much worse yet.
The usual argument against QTM is that it is monetary velocity, not money supply, which is the leading factor in inflation. However, as evidenced by Lyn Alden[2], there is no long-term correlation between inflation and monetary velocity. There is a very difficult to miss correlation between money supply and inflation though.
> I believe they were fully measured and calculated
Not sure if you have been reading the news for the past couple of years, but the narrative pushed by the media and central banks has shifted quite dramatically over that period. These are just a few select headlines, but you can get the picture without me providing an exhaustive list.
- "Our best view is that the effect on inflation will be neither particularly large nor persistent."[3] (Jerome Powell)
- "I doubt we are going to see an inflationary cycle." [4] (Janet Yellen)
- "Experts Agree: Inflation is Transitory, Manageable"[5]
- "It’s official – inflation is no longer transitory"[6]
- "Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming?"[7]
- Inflation is a good thing![8]
OTOH, this armchair economist here predicted what would happen over 2 years ago, and unsurprisingly, it happened (is happening)[9] (May 1, 2020)
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[1]:https://cdn.mises.org/An%20Essay%20on%20Economic%20Theory_2.... (Part 2, Chapter 6)
[2]:https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/#supply
[3]:https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2021/04/could-covid-relief-lead-to...
[4]:https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-sec-yellen-we-will...
[5]:https://groundworkcollaborative.org/news/experts-agree-infla...
[6]:https://moneyweek.com/economy/inflation/604181/transitory-in...
[7]:https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/2021-us-inflati...
[8]:https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/01/economy/inflation-good-ba...