Ask HN: What are your thoughts about the looming EU energy crisis? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: What are your thoughts about the looming EU energy crisis?

I am a EU citizen living in the EU. The futures for gas an electricity for the next few years are eye-watering: https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1562821466198278153.

A Belgian PM said the next 5-10 years are going to be tough: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/belgium-pm-next-5-10-winters-will-be-difficult-as-energy-crisis-persists-1031704120.

In this context, lots of SMEs will no longer be viable. The butcher in my neighbourhood is already shutting down as they are no longer profitable.

As an entrepreneur, how are you preparing for this? Have you considered relocating elsewhere?

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I personally have no trust in EU leaders. I studied China history extensively, and this look exactly like what happened before the great famine there.

They will be defending their world view until the last moment, then it will be complete chaos.

Number are constantly manipulated, the lies are getting less and less subtle as well.

I left the EU few years ago and I am not looking back.

I don't think the energy crisis is going to be the sole problem. You should expect civil war in several European countries as well (France being one of them).

Good luck to the ones deciding to stay there, I hope everything will be fine.

Where did you move if it's not too much to ask?

The UK /s

I am currently in Thailand, will stay in Asia for the foreseeable future. I am thinking of starting a family in the new few years and I consider Western Europe to be too unsafe for that (and I don't believe the statistics that says the number of crimes in France is pretty much the same as in Thailand)

I consider my country (France) to have an absurd amount of tax for the quality of services provided, not worth the price

I don't think we have a clear picture of the energy sector two years down the road.

But another thought: some good may come of this. There'll be a universal need for energy-conserving technology. This will be the kind of society-wide shock to get people taking things seriously -- home insulation, turning down the thermostat, maximizing the number of solar installations in a neighborhood, letting homeowners sell their power back to the grid... It could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, where people are desperate to consider and adopt new technologies.

For entrepreneurs, its' a chance to feel like you're helping not just some people, but the entire community, society in general -- and to feel like you're doing something especially meaningful. In the U.S. they've been talking up the chance to participate in the newly-established "Clean Energy Corps."

    https://www.energy.gov/CleanEnergyCorps

But you can chase the same highs as an entrepreneur.

To my understanding, energy scarcity is the future, not only in Europe, but across all countries. For me the present moment is a moment of reckoning, of realizing that we can actually live our lives with less (fossil) energy. To me this is also the only practical way to reduce CO2 emissions and this mitigate climate change and environmental degradation.

Edit: I'm lucky enough to work (as an independent developer) for a company in an net energy-exporting country, so I'm not really worried about the near future for my work situation. I am taking steps to make our home more autonomous, first in drinking water, which is the most pressing need IMO (we live in France), then energy, and most of all achieving some level of food autonomy.

They did it to themselves. Or perhaps I should say: they did it on purpose (because the people manufacturing / managing the crisis are not going to be the ones really suffering). The transition away from fossil fuels was rushed; nuclear power should have been ramped up first. Trump stood in front of the UN and warned that Germany would be dependent on Russian gas, and the German delegation just laughed. Now EU leaders are taking advantage of the Ukraine situation to make Putin the scapegoat for their failures. They don't care about the small businesses and the working class; in fact quite the opposite: the more you suffer, the better they can control you.

Get into the energy business...

At today's prices, even fedexing a gas canister from the USA is profitable...

I suggest you acquaint yourself with the productive output of Peter Zeihan, who just finished a book "The End of the World is just the Beginning". He's did a lot of interviews on his book tour, and is now on a well earned vacation, hiking in the Sierra Madre mountains for a month.

Warning -- You will not like what you learn, but will appreciate the knowledge as a tool for planning your personal future.

Here's a summary of what I've learned:

We (humanity) are all in for a very bumpy ride. Globalization was a bribe from the US to gather up a large enough coalition to fight the Soviet Union. That's ended, and we in the US (where I live) are taking our toys and going home.

On top of this, the worlds populations all stopped having tons of kids when they urbanized, and that's created some huge demographic problems that can't be fixed, so globalization can't return, no matter the intent of the US.

As for NATO and Europe:

If Germany stands up to Putin, NATO has a future, if he manages to bully them into pulling out of NATO, then it's possible Russia expands to the old Soviet Borders.

I wish you all the best of luck.

It's grim.

I'm in the UK where the government has done less than some EU governments so far to cushion the consumer price rises, and they're predicting the average energy bill to be £7.7k next year. The median UK household income is £31.5k after tax, so that's a big amount to dedicate to energy; more than many households have.

I don't see how we break out of the inflation / less buying power / businesses close / unemployment spiral. Inflation alone was bad in early 2022; the current situation is far worse.

Societal collapse sounds like catastrophising, so let's go with mega-big recession, and Europe being set-back as the bad outcome.

The knock-on destabilisation from our lower purchasing power on China is where it gets "interesting" as their economy is further impacted. The usual cycle to get out of this has been war / reduced population / increased demand.

If my partner's job wasn't tied to being here in the UK and non-transferable (country-level regulations) I would be looking at moving to the USA for the next 5 years, even with the threat of Trump in 2024.

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