We're rapidly approaching the point at which the only thing that's going to work is rationing.
I'd propose that we have marginal rates like income tax e.g. first X units for a household are 30p/kWh, second X units are 100p/kWh, third X units are 200p/kWh, with the aim of heavily penalising usage above what is necessary for basic needs. The bands need to be set based on analysing how much gas we can physically secure and deals need to be struck at a governmental level.
Basically, wartime footing to keep homes and factories running.
That might not even be enough, but the alternatives are worse; some mix of the following:
- people disengage with the system (e.g. ignore the bills, riot)
- millions of people end up unable to cook food or heat their home
- disposable income _disappears_. not goes down, but does not exist or goes negative for 80%+ of the population
The projections for early next year are that an average home will have to pay 7000 a year for energy, up from around 1000-1500 previously. It's not a matter of cutting back on luxuries, most households literally don't have that, and cutting energy use to 1/5th of their previous is impossible.
For businesses it's even worse, there's no cap, some places are facing 10x increases in energy costs e.g. just stop trading, your business model is unviable until/unless costs come down.