Are Sanctions on Russia Working? | Hacker News Reader

Are Sanctions on Russia Working?

economist.com

13 points0xChain30 comments

As the article said in this conflict the military, technological and financial elements are intertwined. It is not clear that Russia is losing on either front currently. They are not winning either, at best it's a stalemate. What is clear however is that tens of millions of people in Europe are facing energy bills they can't afford and brownouts. This winter will be nothing sort of a humanitarian catastrophe. A recession is also likely, but the concept of recession, the macro numbers themselves won't paint an accurate picture because of inequality. What will likely happen is that millions of people will find themselves outside of the economy, without significantly affecting the macro numbers, so the situation is going to be worst in reality than on paper, but those who aren't affected simply won't care.

This is a sad and needless war Russia is forcing on us, but the truth is that they are already at the bottom and don't stand to lose as much as we do.

The bright side is that Europe can come out of this stronger, but only with adequate policies that don't leave people behind.

Some countries only have 6% Russian gas imports. Other countries are diversifying and it will be forever.

Russian oil will be cut off immediately/more easily. The disaster for Russia is that natural resource profits will plummit and the tech industry will be no more.

Perhaps this is what Putin wants, similar as in Chechnya/Syria (eg. For cheap military forces).

Clock is ticking for Russia, 4 years to build LNG terminals. That's not a lot of time.

The share of renewables is currently around 25% in Europe, and the target is 45% by 2030. My fear is that we will end up leaving tens of millions behind, condemning them to a life without energy security, since it won't make sense economically to build all this new infrastructure in many places.

Russia on the other hand with it's unlimited energy can figure out how to get it to countries like China and India. If you have energy you have everything, because it's a seller's market, and the world is a much bigger place than just the countries participating in the sanctions. At the end of the day there is no replacing the energy density, storability and price of fossil fuels. They will likely remain the primary driver of growth for developing countries that can't afford anything else.

No they can't.

The gas sources to Asia are different from the pipelines to Europe. Additionally, Russia doesn't nearly have enough ships to replace a decent part of the deliveries to Europe.

Additionally, they will definitely pay a lot less.

There are reports of burning gas in some russian sources.this is because shutting down costs more money that resume operation and burning gas.

Not just that. If it's oil, there's a risk they can't restart production.

It is something about closing the "well" and pressure in it.

Sorry, i forgot to mention it explicitly.

Russia has two pipelinenetworks. One for asia and one for europe. The european only delivers a fraction but the asian works. The problem is that europe was a major buyer and there is no connection between the asia and europes pipelines. Plzs the two pipelines would require years of work to connect.

> The disaster for Russia is that natural resource profits will plummit

For oil and gas, AFAIK, rising prices for now more than compensate for decreased exports.

(Can’t find newer info than https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/russian-fossil-exp..., though, and that’s 2½ months old)

I'm talking about long term consequences.

Not the short term ones.

Should I invest in coffin makers or do you have financial advice as bad as this hot take.

The trends in the funeral services industry is that there are only a handful of publicly traded companies and they keep grabbing bigger and bigger slices of the pie. The pie is not growing as fast as it used to be due to price transparency (due to regulation and the Amazon effect), competition and changing attitudes toward cremation, but it is growing, and it is a lucrative long-term investment, one that makes sense even (or some would say especially) in a bear market. The chain-store economy only recently started slamming the family-owned businesses in this industry, so there are definitely opportunities.

As always this is not a financial advice.

It's not that bad as you paint it. Sure there will be inflation and rising electricity prices but there is a lot of money poured into the system already. You can see the accumulated wealth all around you (at least in Ireland). People will have to learn to tighten the belt a little bit and not eat outside all the time nor buy the latest iPhone. We will survive.

The sanctions are working beautifully. The only catch is that they're working better against the sanctioners than against the sanctioned.

Putin: from Nero to Zero

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