For most couples, the first 9 months for a child isn’t the problem, it is the costs of the following 2 decades.
For most couples, the first 9 months for a child isn’t the problem, it is the costs of the following 2 decades.
You could make child-rearing unaffordable enough to require government assistance. Then that assistance could be limited by quota. There's a lot of things that could happen in the future. We don't really know. It's just a guess.
Another thing that In vitro fertilization solves is allowing for women to focus on their careers from age 20 - 50. If people in the future are going to live longer and be healthier, then it'd be feasible to have children (through surrogate) at the age of 50. If you'd already amassed enough wealth (or had privy to subsidies), I couldn't see why not...
Direct costs for the elderly are currently ~40% of government expenditures in New Zealand and growing.
My guesstimate 23G$ ($==NZD in this comment) for superannuation/pension[1] and 16G$ healthcare costs[2] of 110G$ total expenditure for ~16% of population (789k of 5M in 2020, projected to 20% in 2030, and 25%+ eventually[3]).
That is ~60k$ per person. 50% of people retiring now can expect[4] to live 2 decades i.e. cost ~1M$ (totally ignoring discount value!).
Disclaimer: tongue in cheek: I am middle aged.
[1] https://www.interest.co.nz/news/100033/budget-2019-social-we...
[2] https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125200191/hey-big-sp...
[3] https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-popu...
[4] https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/how-long-will-i-live
Edit:
> feasible to have children (through surrogate) at the age of 50
If you think it is okay to orphan 1 in 20 children, and that children don't have live grand parents, although maybe benefits of help with elderly care and passing on inheritance? 65 year old helping 90 year old is challenging and very common).
That would definitely reduce population (2 children per 2 adults reproducing at 50 has maybe 40% less total population count, compared against population count if reproducing at 25).
It's so strange having parents in our neighborhood two or three decades older than we were. It must be really hard.
I'm looking forward to my fifties where my eldest children are past college, hopefully giving me grandchildren to play with. I highly encourage young parenthood. It gets increasingly harder. The money part which so many get hung up on is easy. Babies are incredibly cheap, and your income has 18 years to grow.