America’s Affordable Housing Problem
ourbuiltenvironment.substack.com
ourbuiltenvironment.substack.com
EDIT: also most gov't regulations should be illegal and we should have a severe reigning in of government in these cases. All of a sudden it seems like more 'progressive' people have woken up to the dangers of overregulation, which is great, but it's a bit too little too late, and no one actually votes for it when push comes to shove I've noticed.
So when you suggest that a regulation’s (or even laws) effect might be bad, people tend to assume you meant the intent was bad too. So you have to go through all sorts of linguistic gymnastics so they don’t feel their “good” intentions were being attacked.
[1] They didn't know it included certain sex crimes and theft with a weapon
[2] They had faith the state government would be able to set up a magic mental health care system in 90 days after unemployment checks were delayed for almost four months and in a state where DMV regularly experiences outages that last weeks. I mean... maybe the measure is fine, but we'll never know as there's no possible way it was ever going to be implemented the way they sold it to us, and recognizing that is not some indictment of anyone who supports this measure. But alas, I'm just a curmudgeon.
When will people learn that the existence of bad regulation does not mean all regulation is bad? The answer to bad regulation is good regulation and not no regulation. Just look at the crypto industry. A lot of momentum for crypto came out of frustration with the bad regulation which helped cause the 2008 financial crisis. Fast forward a decade plus and we now we have come to accept that scams and incompetence that are much more malicious and severe are a regular part of that industry because no one wanted any regulation. Is that a win for the general public?
1. regulations should be made at the lowest level of government for which it's effective. If states make a regulation that cannot be shown to be more effective because it's administered at the state level rather than the county or city or neighborhood level, it should be struck down. This would get rid of a lot of contentious federal regulation which currently polarizes the country needlessly.
2. Regulations should not infringe upon property rights such as the right to build on your property as you please. There's a major differenc between 'this is an eyesore' and 'this produces toxic waste that leaks onto my property'. The former should not be a regulation the government can legally make. The latter can because it impedes property rights of others.
I can go on.
These are the sort of meta-regulations I think we should have. Honestly, just these two would render many existing regulations already illegal, and they would have to be re-implemented at a more appropriate level of government or scrapped altogether for something different (like a land-use process where instead of zoning, certain lists of activities or activities that the developer should reasonably expect to cause pollution to to other properties require special authorization).
But again to be pedantic, my initial response is quite clear that not all regulation should be illegal. If I meant that I would have said 'all regulation should be illegal'. So let's stop putting words in each other's mouths and pretending we have the high ground.
This clarifies your objection to my "all" comment because it is the same type of thinking to which I was referring. You are stating that regulation is assumed to be bad until proven otherwise. Maybe I should have put an "unless proven otherwise" disclaimer after "all regulation is bad" in my original comment, I will grant you that. But I was simply giving you the benefit of the doubt that you wouldn't dispute something that was proven to be true. Until you have that proof, you are seemingly assuming all regulation is bad.
I do not think all regulation is bad until proven otherwise.
I said:
> >If states make a regulation that cannot be shown to be more effective because it's administered at the state level rather than the county or city or neighborhood level, it should be struck down.
So if you have a good regulation that ought to be made, but made it in a terrible way, then that good regulation is bad, because it's made incorrectly. This does not mean every regulation is presumed bad. Just that regulation should be questioned.
What is the alternative? We accept all regulation without any criteria as to whether it's effective, correctly made, or minimal in scope? Is that really the level of apathy I have to descend to in order to not be accused of calling all regulation 'bad'? That's a bit much.
I propose we create federal legislation that food companies need to label their food with their exact ingredients. According to this comment, this regulation will be struck down until it can "be shown to be more effective because it's administered at the [federal] level rather than the county or city or neighborhood level". How is "it should be struck down" different than "it is bad"? Because I read it as you saying this regulation is bad until I can prove it is necessary to happen at the federal level.
>regulation should be questioned... What is the alternative? We accept all regulation without any criteria as to whether it's effective, correctly made, or minimal in scope?
I'm not arguing that regulation needs to go unquestioned. I said in my first comment that there is both good and bad regulation. The alternative approach is that we don't have some universal rule like you are suggesting and instead judge regulation on a case by case basis. Like I said in my first comment, the answer to bad regulation is good regulation. Your stance still seems to that the answer to bad regulation is no regulation.
Okay, suppose such legislation is created at the federal level. Now, someone disagrees, and sues. The courts will examine the question if the legislation could achieve the same purpose if enacted on the state level. Since food can be imported, my guess would be imported foods could be regulated by the feds, since states don't handle importation processes.
On the other hand, foods produced and consumed in the same state would be up to state regulation. This would be good, since some states have very different food cultures (Louisiana, for example), and it's not really clear to me why voters in Minnesota should have a say in how those local foods are produced and consumed.
As for food commerce between states, I'm not sure, I would think that states could handle that via inter-state compacts and trade agreements.
In this particular case, I don't think counties or municipalities would be a good level of government, since most food is not produced and consumed in the same city or county.
> judge regulation on a case by case basis
Oh so you agree with me? How can such regulation be 'judged on a case by case basis' without meta-regulations of the kind I mentioned? It seems to me that today, anything goes, and there's nothing you can do when such rules are enacted. Also, if such rules are being 'judged on a case by case basis' (presumably for each piece of legislation), then presumably you too judge each new regulation to be bad, since it is apparently in need of judgement (and presumably being made illegal if the judge decides so... or do you advocate judgement with no repercussions?). Honestly I'm very confused over why you disagree with me.
But nothing I said in my comment related to "different food cultures" any more than regulation to not put poison in food. There are some standards that we can all agree on and we might as well define those standards at the highest level they are applicable since we all agree on them.
>Oh so you agree with me? How can such regulation be 'judged on a case by case basis' without meta-regulations of the kind I mentioned? It seems to me that today, anything goes, and there's nothing you can do when such rules are enacted. Also, if such rules are being 'judged on a case by case basis' (presumably for each piece of legislation), then presumably you too judge each new regulation to be bad, since it is apparently in need of judgement (and presumably being made illegal if the judge decides so... or do you advocate judgement with no repercussions?). Honestly I'm very confused over why you disagree with me.
Do you know one of the main differences between criminal trials and civil trials? Criminal trials grant the defendant innocence until proven guilty while civil trials do not grant this presumption of innocence and instead rely on a preponderance of the evidence.
You are basically asking for a presumption of guilt for regulation. I am saying there should be no assumptions. Another way to restate that presumption of guilt would be to say "all regulation is bad until proven otherwise".
So in my experience as a right-leaning person who lives in a lot of left-leaning areas (due to career trajectory and family, blah blah blah), my experience with statements like this is that these regulations are things that 'we' all agree on where 'we' means 'people just like me'. Actually, there are quite obviously to me a lot of regulations in this country where we don't all agree on, and it would be much better for these to be left to local municipalities, counties, or states.
It is too common that both parties attempt to enact legislation 'we' all agree on at the federal level, and cause the other side to get upset and this just makes polarization worse.
> Do you know one of the main differences between criminal trials and civil trials? Criminal trials grant the defendant innocence until proven guilty while civil trials do not grant this presumption of innocence and instead rely on a preponderance of the evidence.
Oh yes, government should always be presumed guilty, because governments have no innate right to exist (unlike humans) and governments have absolutely no right to be free of coercion (voting is the ultimate form of coercion). Since governments derive their right to exist solely from the consent of the governed, yes, a government should be scrutinized. Governments are even more subject to scrutiny than private organizations who derive their right to exist from the human rights of the individual members [1]. If enough members of a government's population decide to abolish it, then the government cannot claim some right to exist.
So yes, all government actions ought to be scrutinized immediately. There is no reason to give the government the benefit of the doubt. Such things are reserved for actual people.
> You are basically asking for a presumption of guilt for regulation. I am saying there should be no assumptions. Another way to restate that presumption of guilt would be to say "all regulation is bad until proven otherwise".
Regulations aren't people. People are. Of course regulations should be presumed guilty. Regulations have impacts on actual people, whereas people cannot meaningfully 'harm' enacted regulation (what does that even mean?).
[1] of course, this doesn't really matter as private orgs can't really 'regulate'.
And that they shouldn't really have the benefit of the doubt.
I know i don't totally agree with that but i used too, and i found it funny.
Also, private orgs do regulate, it's called lobbying, and it's a feature of our best power distribution system yet (capitalism) where power is derived from wealth and not bloodline or other extremely stupid stuff.
You are basically an anarchist to me. I mean, all ancaps/Ayn Rand fans are once they understand positive and negative freedom/rights and push their reasonning on power structure far enough.
I'm sadly not an anarchist anymore, but 'autonomy is in our hearts' is a great way of reading about an existing society with humans in the center without regulations and basing most things on common decency. There is also a lot of analytical philosophy papers on this particular subject of inherent right (or freedom), mostly from your country.
Why fear such factories?
Of course, factories with toxic waste and pollution? Yes those should be built far away from people, but actually, my parents, who live in the suburbs are closer to that sort of thing than I am even though there spot feels more 'open' due to zoning.
My first house had very interesting/interspersed zoning. Basically, businesses lined the main street, then houses were built immediately behind them all. I didn't have a neighbor behind me, it was a giant flower warehouse. It felt so private. It was amazing being able to have a house with a big yard, AND be able to walk anywhere. Vet, immediate care center, several restaurants, gas station, and much more all in short walking distance. I think the only thing I had to drive for was grocery and clothes shopping.
Everywhere I've lived since seem to put residences by themselves, far from any business. I can't stand it, and wish I could find something like my old setup again.
There's a reason people generally prefer not to live next to businesses. And despite a lot of rhetoric about how cities are the future, there's an awful lot of people who prefer suburbs.
Well, maybe it was noisy at times. On the other hand, one hole in the fence and hoo boy did we pilfer scrap and offcuts enough to build forts that would have put Helms Deep to shame.
I used to live in an apartment above a makerspace, and that was pretty great.
Zoning wasn't invented to protect residential neighborhoods from factories, it was devised to protect mansions from apartment buildings.
https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801479878/zone...
Japan’s maximum nuisance zoning seems more sensible to me than either our status quo and 0 zoning.
A factory will need access to wider enough roads, a highway/railhead/port, high voltage power lines/gas lines, skilled labor, and so on. A residential area probably isn’t a suitable site along those lines. I’m sure exception exist.
That said I like the idea of max nuisance zoning, as I mentioned.
I'm sure at first the residents complained big about this, but now the value of their land has skyrocketed for two reasons:
a) Developers want to buy their houses and build more office blocks and apartments
b) Wealthy individuals want to buy their houses so they can live within walking distance of their office
I don’t want to live next to a factory, nightclub, power plant, airport, munitions depot, gas station, homeless shelter, drug rehab clinic, massage parlor
And that’s fine if you do - I’ll just self segment into the zoned neighborhoods
A factory could reasonably be considered to have egregious externalities.
But filtering out egregious externalities is… “zoning” so their logic seems circular.
As an example, I was going to buy land in a rural town to develop into a nice little mini tiny home resort. It was going to be super cute. However, the zoning meant I couldn't do it. Not because there wasn't something just like it next door (like other resorts). No, just beacuse the letter next to the property in the registry wasn't the right one, and changing it would be a nightmare. Why? As long as I'm not dumping heavy metals onto neighbor's property, the water, or the air, why do these letters hold so much sway? Exactly why do we need 'recreational-only' property right next to an existing vacation business? It only serves to entrench existing competition, and make new ventures more difficult.
Satisfying their definition is not an obligation.
The problem is that the primary purpose for US "zoning" was discrimination.
"Zoning" in Japan, for example, is different. It sets things like minimum acceptable noise levels, emissions, traffic flows, etc. Within that, everything is allowed.
Want to put a house in the middle of a commercial area? Sure, fine. But then you don't get to complain about the noise. Want to put a commercial building in a residential area? Sure, but you will get shut down if you make too much noise or create too much traffic.
As much as I love BBQ, if someone opened a restaurant and started smoking at 1AM everyday next to my house, I'd be pretty upset.
On the other hand, I probably wouldn't care if a couple of architects wanted to set up shop next to my house.
Again... this is NOT zoning.
Zoning is taking a parcel of raw land, subdividing it, and then, before anything is built, deciding what goes where. You'll say 'this square is a restaurant, slap a C1 zoning on it', and 'this square is a house, so slap an R1 on it'. You'll do this en masse, without any regard for the actual inhabitants or businesses occupying this district.
Things like setting minimum noise levels, street sizes, etc, are part of permitting. We can have a separate discussion here, but this is not 'zoning'.
If we get rid of zoning then soon everywhere will be terrible, but at least everywhere will be equal. If we put property rights above all else we can reach a level of dystopia in our urban areas that will make them far less desirable, and as a result people will spread out more from the urban centers.
Two things.
1. By removing zoning regulation, it's actually smaller mom and pop shops who build factories and stores. Corporations can, but actually smaller businesses can move quicker and are thus able to buy the land in upcoming areas faster (likely because the owners live there). On the other hand, with zoning, large corporations are incentivized to own commercial space. Mom and pops don't want to, because if they purchase land for a factory, they don't know if the city will actually allow that or not, and can't afford the wait / lobbying. Only large companies can. So contrary to your contrived example of no zoning leading to large factories interspersed with housing, no zoning leads to lovely homes interspersed with small artisanal factories. I'll tell you... it's extremely pleasant to walk to the artisanal chocolate factory for a mid-day treat. I pity those that cannot because they're worried Nestle's going to plop a mega-factory in their neighborhood.
2. Removing zoning regulations will encourage rich local residents to build nice housing. This will be expensive housing. No one builds low-income housing because it's stupid. Why spend a bunch of money to rent for under-market rents. But, by expanding the luxury supply, you create under-market rents for old luxury supply that hasn't been updated. That's great.
How about a strip club? how about a battery recycling company? how about a metal recycling plant? How about a bar that is open to 4AM and has lots of live concerts?
Zoning regulations exist for a reason - removing them will do ZERO to generate more low-income housing - if there was money to be made in building low-income housing, there would be plenty of low-income housing already.
Strip clubs should be wholesale illegal, but I digress. I suppose there is a Thai massage parler of dubious characcter in my neighborhood (recently started), but it'll soon be kicked out I imagine due to public pressure. It's not like no zoning means there's no neighborhood input.
Live concerts... ? Well that is against noise regulations and so while a bar can happily exist (in fact the best tiki bar in my state is located a few blocks away... lovely date night), it has to take effort to be quiet. This is good. Bars and pubs are integral to community cohesion.
There are two bars near me that throw concerts, but these are usually during the day and the neighbors are invited, and they give us free food and beer sometimes, so that's nice.
I honestly cannot understand the complaint.
I'm not advocating the removal of zoning for low-income housing. Removing zoning would build more lovely luxury housing, which is what we need more of. Low-income housing is just old luxury housing. All housing is luxury when it's built. No one build old housing. Why would you intentionally build something shitty?
Zoning regulation exist for a reason but have gone way way too far in the favor of NIMBYs who like living in food/fun/transportation deserts.
It's also a total non-concern. Reasonable regulation can get around this.
Here's a law that we can add today before we get rid of zoning.
1. Any business that knowingly engages in activity that leaks toxic materials, noise at night, vibrations, or other nuisances onto adjoining properties preventing neighborhing pre-existing property owners from enjoying their property, owes 200% punitive damages of any revenue derived from such activity or, if no revenue is derived, $1 million.
Easy... now no company will possibly build in an area with existing housing because they can face hefty damages. For example, a metal recycling company which deals with potentially hazardous waste can have its revenue turned into a loss if it builds near homes. On the other hand, since the regulation only applies to nuisances towards existing homeowners, no one will develop housing near such a metal recycling facility, because they know they will face nuisances and there's nothing they can do.
In fact, this is how it was done for many centuries.
As far as stores, I would welcome more convenient shopping options near to my residence.
Not all factories require a lot of space, and not all residential plots are expensive.
We have a chocolate factory, a noodle factory, and a commercial bakery nearby. These are our neighbors. They know the neighborhood kids. everyone gets yummy treats. Why would I possibly care?
Zoning is taking land that's not developed and slicing it up deciding where things should go. That is terrible. It's centralized planning. It is against every principle of freedom of families to choose where to live and to engage in commerce. It is the worst kind of socialism.
1. A strip joint would have economic incentives for an ideal location much like residential housing. It would likely benefit from a more economically active corridor rather than where a bunch of families raise kids. I've noticed this with adult shops when I lived in different suburbs of Vancouver.
2. Municipalities often have bylaws for when/how they can serve alcohol (eg: "last call") as well as noise levels. It strikes me that there are better regulations for ensuring these sorts of things rather than entirely stamping out small businesses to be near homes.
Like, I can understand not wanting to live next to a dive bar full of students on a Tuesday evening, but I think there's still a lot of room with liberalizing zoning to make more comfortable living spaces in North America. Japan's attitude to things makes a lot more sense to me [1], especially having lived there in a suburb nextdoor to a school.
[1] http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014/04/japanese-zoning.html
I'm not advocating for no regulation just no zoning regulation. zoning regulation is saying 'here is some undeveloped land, instead of letting it develop organically with regulations, we're going to chop the land into pieces and assign what can and cannot be done with it.'
So, for example, take sex offenders. As it is they can't live within X feet of a school. If they live somewhere and a school is being built that puts them in violation of this rule, the sex offender has to move.
The same should be true of strip clubs / adult venues. They can exist, but they cannot exist within X feet of an existing home. Boom. Strip clubs won't be built in residential areas, homes won't be built near strip clubs (except for maybe homes for horny adults?), and also no zoning was involved.
Other than that... Yeah I would like if the taco shop down the street sold ramen and the chocolate shop sold turkish delight too, but alas, I mean... what're you going to do?
You'll get a weed dispensary that is open all day and night.
You'll get a liquor store that has robberies every 3rd night.
So as to which countries... our country. Most countries had no zoning until recently.
Most housing starts in the nation over the last 10 years, leader of "housing first" homeless solutions, amazingly low housing compared to the national average ...
Market urbanism works. Reducing excessive zoning works. Pushing back on NIMBYism works.
It seems like the underground water and sewer pipes designed to water and take the waste of a neighborhood of 50 housing units with 100 bathrooms and 150 bedrooms wouldn’t handle the waste of 500 units with 750 bathrooms and 1500 bedrooms.
Zoning is like 'this parcel is R1' which means, despite the fact that it is the same size as the 'R2' parcel next door, it can only have one home per half acre instead of two because ... reasons.
Not about apportioning per lot 'per fairness'. Centralized planning for 'fairness' leads to perverse incentives.
For any established neighborhood, that will overwhelmingly have already happened.
It’s a hard problem, because it’s a people and money problem centered around the space they spend more time than anywhere else and more money than they’ve spent on any other thing.
The post-zoning ones have trash heaps in yards, cars everywhere. The pre-zoning ones are expensive and manicured and obviously places where people have pride of living, despite there being no HOA. In fact several things HOAs would not allow (statues of unusual taste) exist too that are different but still nice.
- A fairer society. Yup I went there. Every other solution that tries will eventually be pulled apart by this unless the wealth gap is kept under control. This means changes to funding of courts systems, health, education, massive changes to tax system, inheritance law etc etc etc. Everything that makes people who use the term SJW scream.
- oh ok.
- sorry
- Weirdly access to mortgages is an important component - because mortgages are leveraged borrowing over 20/30 years you can front load the price of housing massively. Turns out that is a bad idea.
- land wealth tax. UK built two whole new cities after WWII by announcing 100% land tax. If you owned a field right next to that shiny new train station / school / hospital, then you know it's going to be worth a fortune once fifty houses are built on it. So you are a fool to sell it at agricultural prices. But that just means the social value that the hospital / train station creates is immediately swallowed up by private sector land deals.
If instead everyone knows that egregious profits just get taxed away, everyone settles down and does sensible prices deals, and suddenly all the future value is left in the future and not dumped into todays mortgages.
(See UCL video series, looking for references)
- There is no such thing as "affordable" housing. It costs $100 to build an apartment building , and $120 to build an apartment building with nicer amenities, appliances, etc. Concrete, wood, HVAC equipment, roofs, etc. are all going to pretty much cost the same for a project on the same piece of dirt. It's not going to be a $30 vs $120 difference like I imagine some people think.
- Time is money. Imagine you bought a landsite for $5M to build 100 units. Your $3M loan is 8% a year, full recourse repayment guarantee. There are an almost infinite reasons you can be delayed (CEQA lawsuits by NIMBYs, cities illegally denying your project, other silly stuff). Of the $2M of equity, you also are paying your investors 12%. So blended together the project costs 10% of $5M or $500k in financing costs. Delayed for 2 years? Great, you need to earn $78k in additional revenue ($780/unit/year or $65/mo in higher rents) to maintain the same level of profitability. The math is $1M x 5.5% (developer required yield on project cost) = $55k of NOI / 70% of NOI margin to gross up to $78k of revenue.
Oh and by the way, since you got delayed 2 years, construction costs went up 10% annually. Hope you got close enough to get a guaranteed max price contract from your G.C. And those hard costs make up 70% of the project costs.
- Are you anti-immigrant and complain about housing costs? You're also part of the problem. We need more laborers to build.
- Unfortunately eliminating parking requirements won't help too much. Every developer in most major cities know most tenants need to drive somewhere. The cool urban mixed-use redevelopment with no parking is the edge-case. Also, your construction lender will not want to lend money on no-parking projects. But anyways, the market should determine what's the appropriate amount of parking.
- We need to supercharge our mass rail infrastructure investments. Even though I believe we should be adding density, we need infrastructure that other international cities have figured out already. Subways work and make cities awesome. We should have been doing this 20 years ago. Congestion is a real issue, to the credit of NIMBYs.
- Yes zoning is a massive issue.
- Prop 13 and rent control cause the same negative externalities that hide the true cost of living determined by real market values.
So what I'm left wondering isn't how to fix this, or what the government's response will be, but rather what is going to happen to finally force a change in direction? Mass homelessness? Depopulation of major cities? I don't think major economic downturns have the potential to do it. They'll slap a bunch of quick fix band-aids over those issues and declare the problem solved. There has to be something that is too big to declare fixed by printing more money or bailing out a few companies.
Examples:
Tax - imagine you just gaves votes to a bunch of people who were poor because you just released them from slavery. How are you going to stop them voting to take your money? Add supermajority laws that let the minority veto any tax changes. (Or if constitional change need supermajority, get them added there while you still can) or just to be sure ...
Voting - see the Alabama constitution of 1901 "The Constitutional Convention was called with the intention by southern Democrats of the state "within the limits imposed by the Federal Constitution, to establish white supremacy in this State".[9] Its provisions essentially disenfranchised most African Americans and thousands of poor white Europeans, who were excluded until 1965. "
Health Care - why wouldn't you follow all the European nations in socializing medicine? Racism.
You can usually find the written down racism by tracing back from more recent apologies
> For more than 100 years, the AMA actively reinforced or passively accepted racial inequalities and the exclusion of African-American physicians. In an address to the National Medical Association (NMA) Annual Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, on July 30, 2008, Ronald M. Davis, MD, then the AMA's immediate past president, apologized for more than a century of AMA policies (PDF) that excluded African-Americans from the AMA, in addition to policies that also barred them from some state and local medical societies.
> Davis pledged that the AMA would "do everything in our power to right the wrongs that were done by our organization to African-American physicians and their families and their patients."