The World’s Cotton Supply Keeps Shrinking, Hit by Drought, Heat

In TN, USA: Neighbors' cotton fields look really good this year, and boy there's a lot of it. Some of these fields are under cotton for the 3rd year in a row.

The corn got severely bitten by weather and may be dire yields. The winter wheat harvest was great, now most of those fields are growing soybean, I'd say about half of it unfertilized "green manure" and the other half intended for harvest.

I suspect about 20% of the land under cultivation this year is being stretched too far and is going to be reduced in productivity for the next several years. The 3rd year cotton fields look (guessing) 10% to 25% smaller than cotton fields beside them that have been rotated normally.

Another interesting note: Usually we get crop dusters working hard through cotton blossom time: this year they're grounded. Some farmers are spraying with surface gear, but I suspect some are skipping the boll weevil sprays which are kindof a big deal for the entire region.

Three key quotes from the article:

- In India, the top-producing country, heavy rains and pests have cut into cotton crops so much that the nation is importing supplies.

- In the US, the largest exporter of the commodity, a worsening drought is ravaging farms and is set to drag production to the lowest level in more than a decade.

- Brazil, the second-largest exporter, is battling extreme heat and drought that have already cut yields by nearly 30%.

So prices will likely go up. The cheapest new cotton t-shirt for sale in a brick and mortar store in my city is $4, which is a ridiculous price given a human physically assembled it. It seems to me that, as a proportion of total cost, the price of cotton can stand to increase if that's the retail price floor right now.