PG once formalized YC value prop as average outcome multiplier [1]. Whatever the current valuation, would YC improve your expected outcome over lifetime of the company on 7.5%? If yes, then you should do it.
this feels like a second order analogue to the "ideas vs execution" debate - we know that idea is worth ~0, execution worth ~100 - but the harder question is - what is YC-fueled 3 months (where lets say you spend max 24 hours with YC partners/peers/events) + say 1-2 years worth of residual relevant connections worth vs a ~10 year hard grind on your own?
not gonna get the answer here but was fun to contemplate :)
the realer answer is have about ~16 years of being in love with/thinking about microeconomics. maybe do some math/linear algebra (where you get very used to projecting spaces onto different dimensions), and then make a few high stakes decisions with regards to job negotiations optimizing for cash, salary, learning value, career path, etc.
but dont think for a second i have any of this figured out haha. i just write well.
i always suspicious linear algebra was very useful in representing probabilistic outcomes and your answer confirms my hunch. ;)
good day