Hungary's weather chief sacked over wrong forecast

A thunderstorm had been predicted for the night with a probability of 30% 12 hours before the event, at the go-or-skip point. The government decided to cancel it and postpone to the 27th. The thunderstorm did not happen. The government blamed the meteorologists.

Here are the weather reports for the given time frame:

  LHBP 200515Z 2006/2106 33008KT CAVOK TEMPO 2006/2106 VRB14G26KT 5000 SHRA TSRA SCT060CB BKN090 PROB40 TEMPO 2008/2106 3000 TSRA SCT015 BKN030CB BKN060 PROB30 TEMPO 2010/2021 VRB18G36KT 1400 TSRAGR SQ

  LHBP 201115Z 2012/2112 34008KT CAVOK TEMPO 2012/2112 VRB15G25KT 4000 TSRA SHRA SCT008 SCT040CB BKN080 PROB30 TEMPO 2012/2021 VRB18G35KT 1400 TSRAGR BKN004 BKN030CB

  LHBP 201715Z 2018/2118 34008KT CAVOK TEMPO 2018/2118 VRB15G28KT 4000 TSRA SHRA SCT012 SCT040CB BKN080 PROB40 TEMPO 2018/2118 1400 TSRA SHRA BKN008 BKN030CB

  LHBP 202315Z 2100/2124 34008KT 9999 SCT030 BKN080 TEMPO 2100/2124 VRB15G28KT 4000 TSRA SHRA SCT012 BKN030CB BKN080 PROB40 TEMPO 2100/2124 1400 TSRA SHRA BKN008 BKN030CB OVC080 TEMPO 2100/2106 27006KT TEMPO 2111/2119 04005KT

Can be decoded here: http://www.flightutilities.com/MRonline.aspx

  Following weather will take place with a probability of 30%:
  The following weather phenomena are expected to arise temporarily:
  From 10:00 UTC (Saturday 20 August 2022 12:00 local time) at 21:00 UTC (Saturday 20 August 2022 23:00 local time), Wind: Variable in direction, speed: 18 knots (33 km/h) (9 m/s), with Gusts of maximum speed 36 knots (67 km/h) (19 m/s).
  Minimum horizontal visibility: 1400 m.
  Weather: Thunderstorms Rain Hail .
  Weather: Squall .

In 2006 we had a similar "setup". Then the early reports were ignored, and by the time a report with a higher probability arrived in the afternoon, it was too late. The outcome: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5269642.stm