If you speak to YC alumni, you'll hear from many of them that YC made them dream bigger. There's a founder in the comments here who said YC was an "ambition multiplier" for him[1]. How do you value that?
the goal of rational decisionmaking is to try to convert all factors into some kind of comparable numbers, and $ is just one utility function on which to project all these nonmonetary qualities. call it "utils" if you like (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility#Cardinal).
so fair point if you disagree with 5-10m of nonmonetary value equivalent. Is it more like 50m? 100m? what is the lowest you can make the upper bound?
a fun academic question for most, but for me personally, i have been offered a $2-3m seed pre product so that suddenly became a lot more real.
PG once formalized YC value prop as average outcome multiplier [1]. Whatever the current valuation, would YC improve your expected outcome over lifetime of the company on 7.5%? If yes, then you should do it.
this feels like a second order analogue to the "ideas vs execution" debate - we know that idea is worth ~0, execution worth ~100 - but the harder question is - what is YC-fueled 3 months (where lets say you spend max 24 hours with YC partners/peers/events) + say 1-2 years worth of residual relevant connections worth vs a ~10 year hard grind on your own?
not gonna get the answer here but was fun to contemplate :)
the realer answer is have about ~16 years of being in love with/thinking about microeconomics. maybe do some math/linear algebra (where you get very used to projecting spaces onto different dimensions), and then make a few high stakes decisions with regards to job negotiations optimizing for cash, salary, learning value, career path, etc.
but dont think for a second i have any of this figured out haha. i just write well.
i always suspicious linear algebra was very useful in representing probabilistic outcomes and your answer confirms my hunch. ;)
good day